wxeyeNH

Rain has ended.   Glad to see the northern edge tick north enough to give me  .47".  Meanwhile the beat goes on, month after month, after month for areas just south of me.  Congrats Manchester, they should hit 4".

Rain over   .47".   Nice to see the models come north the slightest bit to get me into some beneficial rain.  (Sorry Brian)  Not enough to create a puddle in the empty pond but enough to keep the grass green.

Over the next 10 days it looks like NN increasing rain chances for NNE. 

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Did they ever guesstimate on a cause for the gas leaks?   Poor people in Lawrence.  When my street had a minor leak last Xmas eve-National Grid was put in full force till morning fixing something that could have probably waited.  

So where do things stand now?  Many thousands of  people will not have hot water, heat or cooking gas for months?  Those people lost food and can't buy fresh food if they can't cook.  Is that where things stand?

Light to moderate rain.  About .40".   Looks to end soon.

9 hours ago, dendrite said:

It's an AFD on a Sunday night amidst a boring pattern. I'm sure only a few weenies saw it.

Speaking of AFD,  I always see so many spelling mistakes and sentences that don't make sense etc. I didn't read the one you are talking about but it happens very often and is a pet peeve of mine.  If I were sending something out to the public I would double check what I wrote.  It doesn't take too much time to go back and proofread especially in a weather pattern that is fairly benign.   

4 hours ago, alex said:

Just got a new house into our rental program. This is the view. So stunning!

What a great view for a weather weenie.  Being able to watch snow lines etc. on the cone of Mt Washington.  Nice to be able to advertise such views.  Of course, could rent the property and end up seeing nothing at all.

It's going to be interesting to see what model is most correct with the northern edge of the Florence precip.  18Z came north enough so that I'm forecasted to get near 2" while previous runs gave me near nothing.  Sharp northern edge storms have huge bust potentials.  Will be interesting to watch although NNE is out of this one and the wait continues.

Not sure what thread to post this in but a real hard forecast in my region coming up.  Florence rain up and out!  Where does the swath set up?  Up until the 18Z GFS I was just north of the rain on both models giving me basically no rain to speak off.  Then the GFS comes north to give me 2".  Glad this is not a snow situation.  Huge bust potential through my towns up here.  

The last couple of mornings has been fun with the drone.  Living near a hilltop at 1100 feet with the surrounding area being around 550 feet I'm usually close to the top of valley fog.  As a kid I always wished I could fly a plane or helicopter next to a building CuB and punch the clouds in and out.  Guess the drone is the next best thing.   So yesterday morning took the drone up a 200-300 feet overhead to the cloud tops and tried to punch into them.  For those that like that kind of thing here is my Utube video.

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Let's save this output for January...although DIT, Berg and I would probably have a melt if the QPF distribution actually looked like that.

The trend for the swath of heaviest rain has been to push it south with each run.  The new 18Z GFS has reversed that trend and brings the swath north a bit.  It has the real heavy rain running roughly along the Mass Pike on the southern edge and up to the Whites on the northern edge.  I'm sure more adjustments forthcoming.  

12Z Sunday Euro and GFS are in very good agreement as to where the heavy rain sets up with Flo coming up and out to sea.  Just north of this cut off line, there is a big rainfall deficit over the past several months.  Just south of the line there has been excessive rain over the same period.  Wish we could reverse this and give me ( the X) and points north a good soak.  On and on this goes.....

12Z Euro forecasted rainfall for Flo

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Keep it out of here! We can’t dry out. Mold, mushrooms, algae, root rot, etc max wind speed the past , days was 4mph. Everything is a soggy mess. If you’re going to pull it north you better pull it north all the way.

on a side note, I planted my last chestnut tree last night. A few of them don’t look too well. I can tell they had root rot when I took them out of the pots. They’ll probably make a comeback with the cooler soils.

1

  Fields are again super dry.  Of the 4 chestnut saplings, the one in the shade is doing good.  The others are dropping leaves and ground is hard as rock.  I just can't keep watering deep enough.  Pond remains empty and the brook at the bottom of my hill is trickling.  NNE needs a good soak.  

Here's the new  12Z Euro.  NNE and me get the shaft yet again.  You'll get 2-3" and report about chickens floating around and I'll watch the hills south of me obscured in rain why I'll sit high and dry yet again.  Still time for adjustments 50 miles N/S

Driving around my area yesterday the streams have almost no water in them.  I'm running between a 9-12" rainfall deficit in the past 180 days  while areas just south of me have a surplus.  NNE needs rain.  Yet again it looks like a good slug of rain from the remains of Flo will pass just to the south of the areas that need it.  Still time to move it north but trends don't look good.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Indirectly related to the present discussion...

My biggest concern with this Florence handling has been the Media's portrayal. 

 

 

Tip....  You are 110% right.  The hype was over the top,  especially once it was downgraded to a Cat 1.  

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The central NH area seems to typically peak right around Columbus Day, with my hood peaking almost a week behind

Dave,  Over the past years the peak for me in the NW Lakes Region is Oct 17th.  Everyone comes up for Columbus Day, and its colorful for sure but after the peeps head back south the real color wave happens.  2 years ago was spectacular.  Last year was fair.  Meanwhile, 3 bears have been hit this week by cars in my town and the towns right around me.  First the squirrels now the bears...one was roaming in my pastures yesterday

14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

ferocious

 

I just love this.  Everything is over hype and breaking news.  Wonder if the producers asked him before hand to perfect his sway.

I'm starting to watch what happens with Flo as the storm gets caught up in the westerlies and we get the moisture next Tuesday.  I hope the swath of rain is right up here in Central New England.  Still big rainfall deficit since April for me.  A nice 2-4" would be great.   Not just rain, but a wet, wet rain.

1 minute ago, Solak said:

Lower, Slower

5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13
Location: 33.7°N 76.2°W
Moving: WNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 955 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

Unless I'm reading the recon reports wrong the recon went thru the eye very recently and found 952.5mb.

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It was the first time I ever saw people taping their windows.  Years and even decades later you could sometimes see houses where they never removed all of the tape.

I lived in Boston during Gloria.  Everyone was taping their windows.  I remember driving down Comm. Ave in Allston.  Building after building with tape.  

9 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Anyone know what ever happened to the GOES floater satellite images on NHC website?

Mark,   I use this site   https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not entirely impossible that this thing spins down... coming ultimately over land as a weakened(ing) entity.  Not entirely, but in some amount of IKE ...  The Euro almost shows that with the mid level components of the vortex opening up some over Sunday while it's still technically not yet onshore.  

Thing is, the waters within 50 or 60 naut miles of the Carolines are quite warm, but not as thermally charged as it is some 100 mi farther out across the breadth of the g-stream.  Such that a spinning near stationary tumult could overturn some of the thermalcline - much to the chagrin of the media-machine that's profitizing so well off their 'button pushing' 

Nothing would please me more than to somehow dullard the affect of this thing... and, have them look like giant a-holes for this whole saga .. .Huh!  But then again, they'd just blame it on the Meteorologist and the common hoi polloi, with their stunningly razor sharp analytic insights/judgement, would have no problem following along with that spin and situate their criticism at the "right" source.

Tip,  It might have been you that made a post like this last year with Irma.  Sometimes once a hurricane goes through a period of RI and then levels off or slowly weakens it never gets it's act 100% back together again.  Even though shear is weak and SST are warm I wonder if Flo will hold server or just slowly weaken from this point on.  I doubt we will see the winds increase back up over 140 or 145mph.  Eye has temporarily become cloud filled.

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There have been plenty of bad tropical systems in NC over the years bit I guess since the past few years have been quiet some think it rarer than it is.   We should remind everyone that by the time Katrina made landfall it was cat 1/2.   

A very good friend of mine, her husband and 2 dogs moved to Mrytle Beach last year.  About 3 or 4 miles inland.  New modest home.  No trees.  They bought a generator last winter when they got an inch or snow and lost power.  They have plenty of gas for it.  They are asking me for advice.  Do they travel hundreds of miles trying to find a hotel or ride it out?  She knows Im a weather geek and asked me to call this eve after looking at the latest models.   My thinking is that if the eyewall comes ashore or partially ashore 50 miles north in the Wilmington area they would at okay at first.  West offshore wind.  By the time the storm drifts SW it would be downgraded somewhat.  So they would definitely loose power but be okay that far inland from major structural damage.  A new home built to code could handle 80-85mph gusts. If I had a new home that far inland I would hesitate to just pack up and leave not knowing when I could return.  

The 18Z GFS and the 12Z Euro are in very close agreement now.  Approach to NC just north of Wilmington.  Stall then SW movement near or just off the coast.  Then the 2nd landfall down in Southern/Central  SC.    

Much worse track on the new GFS.  Not much population on the Outer Banks.  Bringing Flo so much further SW bring the Wilmington area into the eyewall.  117,000 population. 

1.37" rain last night and this AM.  Largest qpf event since the snowstorms late last winter.   Broke down and made a small fire in the wood stove yesterday.