Given this, 12z should reflect a more clear outcome, because the short waves are now fully sampled. If there’s going to be any significant north trend, it should happen this afternoon on the models.
You loves those 300 hr op runs especially when they’re warm. Maybe this is one step in the middle of a pattern progression but do you think this is really how it’s going to play out on a larger scale?
There are a whole lot of members back to the west and north along the coast but I don’t know if that’s an indication that they’re going to track closer to the coast or just that they’re slower. Would be great to find a solution that finally gives SNE a real storm all the way to the coast, but also manages to snow on most of us.
day 5-6 is usually when storms modelled as significant sort of disappear or get unclear. Then they get sampled (when does this one get sampled?). And then at day 4 (tomorrow morning) the direction gets clearer.
This is established weenie wisdom
No other way to play it than to be in the moment with whatever’s happening. When it was apparent we were going to have two weeks of dry weather. I just made it about doing different walks in beautiful places, knowing that the snow will come and there will be time to enjoy that.
looks to me like we have snowpack up here through all of March based on these long range models.
So this morning both euro and gfs bring good snows up into NNE. Let’s hope our southern friends can get in on this. If not, I would think the coastal areas down through the middle Atlantic are going to get a big one at some point in the next couple weeks.
I am about 37 inches short of my seasonal average and I have very little doubt I will get there.
No Changes.
No. Changes....
To my eye this doesn't seem like an overly suppressive look? The 50-50 isn't too far S and E. But the winners will likely be Mid Atlantic, SNE and CNE when it comes to jackpots?
Suppression is mediated by more than just the arctic oscillation. Like the position of the PNA ridge. Or if there’s an active southern stream and split flow. And the positioning of high-pressure around Greenland.