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mahk_webstah

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Everything posted by mahk_webstah

  1. mahk_webstah
    Fast and hard can be fun. And, this pattern probably brings a slow moving coastal at some point with that blocking.
  2. mahk_webstah
    So, just to be clear, you think that’s what’s more likely to happen?
  3. mahk_webstah
    Given this, 12z should reflect a more clear outcome, because the short waves are now fully sampled. If there’s going to be any significant north trend, it should happen this afternoon on the models.
  4. mahk_webstah
    You loves those 300 hr op runs especially when they’re warm. Maybe this is one step in the middle of a pattern progression but do you think this is really how it’s going to play out on a larger scale?
  5. mahk_webstah
    There are a whole lot of members back to the west and north along the coast but I don’t know if that’s an indication that they’re going to track closer to the coast or just that they’re slower. Would be great to find a solution that finally gives SNE a real storm all the way to the coast, but also manages to snow on most of us.
  6. mahk_webstah
    It was something to see fo sho
  7. mahk_webstah
    Yes
  8. mahk_webstah
    Yeah, but there’s two short waves involved. When do they get properly sampled? We’re still more than four days out.
  9. mahk_webstah
    34” at the coop
  10. mahk_webstah
    The warming of a gelid nape is quite a thing!
  11. mahk_webstah
    Ridge position just inside west coast could bring DC to PWM KU? Slow moving and lotta fun.
  12. mahk_webstah
    You would think that comes north to at least Philly. They almost always do. Maybe a mid Atlantic special that gets to you for a few?
  13. mahk_webstah
    I wanna lay down some pack as a hedge on suppression with a big block. Oh and of course to give ya'll a better cold source... of course.
  14. mahk_webstah
    day 5-6 is usually when storms modelled as significant sort of disappear or get unclear. Then they get sampled (when does this one get sampled?). And then at day 4 (tomorrow morning) the direction gets clearer. This is established weenie wisdom
  15. mahk_webstah
    That isn't early release, that's a firehose.
  16. mahk_webstah
    Very goood for many. Close to region wide
  17. mahk_webstah
    The Euro is a slacker?! Lets give it a day off and stick with every other suite of guidance...
  18. mahk_webstah
    985 at Block Island does that? Something's not right. That should be a decent storm for CNE and NNE, not a 4-8er.
  19. mahk_webstah
    So do we get the 19th to come up the coast? Maybe...
  20. mahk_webstah
    No other way to play it than to be in the moment with whatever’s happening. When it was apparent we were going to have two weeks of dry weather. I just made it about doing different walks in beautiful places, knowing that the snow will come and there will be time to enjoy that. looks to me like we have snowpack up here through all of March based on these long range models.
  21. mahk_webstah
    So this morning both euro and gfs bring good snows up into NNE. Let’s hope our southern friends can get in on this. If not, I would think the coastal areas down through the middle Atlantic are going to get a big one at some point in the next couple weeks. I am about 37 inches short of my seasonal average and I have very little doubt I will get there.
  22. mahk_webstah
    Yes you will
  23. mahk_webstah
    No Changes. No. Changes.... To my eye this doesn't seem like an overly suppressive look? The 50-50 isn't too far S and E. But the winners will likely be Mid Atlantic, SNE and CNE when it comes to jackpots?
  24. mahk_webstah
    Suppression is mediated by more than just the arctic oscillation. Like the position of the PNA ridge. Or if there’s an active southern stream and split flow. And the positioning of high-pressure around Greenland.
  25. mahk_webstah
    could mean it favors the interior via Miller Bs that shoot out of the southern stream and are forced to redevelop?
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