mississaugasnow

10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

12z Euro for those interested.

 

 

I wonder if we see winter storm watches issued tomorrow for northern Indiana-Michigan and Ohio. Environment Canada issued their first map with 2-4" across most of southern Ontario with 4-6" in Niagara and eastern Ontario. Im guessing special weather statements issued for us tomorrow. Environment Canada is normally very hesitant to put out watches, especially since it would cause "panic" in Toronto haha  

Also for a watch the event would need to be 6" + here which right now they arent calling for 

51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last mid Nov we had a large storm as well

..Allegany County...
   Andover               12.0   530 AM 11/16  Social Media

...Cayuga County...
   Port Byron            15.0   555 AM 11/16  Social Media

...Chautauqua County...
   Jamestown              6.2   633 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter
   Fredonia               4.0   300 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter

...Erie County...
   Sardinia               8.5   649 AM 11/16  TRAINED SPOTTER

...Livingston County...
   Lima                  11.5   500 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter
   Conesus               10.0   523 AM 11/16  Broadcast Media

...Monroe County...
   2 S Fairport           9.5   613 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter
   Penfield               8.0   620 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter

...Ontario County...
   Bristol               12.0   634 AM 11/16  Social Media

...Wayne County...
   Williamson            10.0   523 AM 11/16  Broadcast Media

...Wyoming County...
   4 W Warsaw            14.0   627 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter

I believe in 2016 central NY had a massive Mid November storm and we all know what happened in Nov 2014. Nov is a winter month around here. December on the other hand...

I cant recall 2016, but last year and this year are acting very similar almost to the date. November 9th 2018 I recorded the first slushy 2cm, November 15th I recorded 11cm of snow. This year is a few days ahead with yesterday getting slushy snow and now tracking a bigger system. 

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah looks like a long duration event from Monday into Weds. 

Over here in the Greater Toronto area and Niagara we have a bit more wiggle room for the west but not a lot for the east. Should be a fun next few days. Definitely did not think we would be model watching like this in early-mid November 

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yeah, quite the startling shift in the last 18 hours or so.  To be honest this looks more reasonable and realistic.  And as the WXfreak points out, cold and snowy Novembers rarely work in our favor so perhaps this is all for the best.  Around the 20th it appears that a parade of powerful storms will break down the West Coast Ridge while a strong Bermuda high appears to be setting up for the East Coast.  We might get an Indian Summer week after all.  This is all speculation as the model shifts over the last few days have been drastic (and I'm also looking two weeks out, LOLz)

Im all for the cold this time of the year. I dont live right beside a lake anymore but on the Niagara Peninsula. The quicker Lake Erie and Lake Ontario cool down the better prospects for system snow. The warm lakes radiate heat miles inland hampering most early season events in the GTA and Downtown Buffalo. 

Also heading down to Nicaragua on the 22nd, so if we have to indian summer for a week id rather it happen when im down south haha   

2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Few inches of snow overnight.  Seems to snow a little everyday lately, with snow in the forecast daily for at least the next week. Settling into a winter routine, waking up at night to feed the stove, check radar and model runs etc....

Snow probably here to stay for the season

A lot of areas in central ontario/northern ontario wont see the ground again until april. 

21 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Minimum Pressure dropped to 992.



.

On the Canadian side by Dunnville in Haldimand County if you guys know the area. Worst lake conditions I've ever seen here. Minor damage is already occurring all along the lakefront. (trees down, fences ripped out by the waves, ect..) luckily no major damage. 

6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I was shocked to see HWW's already up off the lakes in NY, but I just looked at some of the bufkit soundings for ROC, BUF, and SYR and HOLY CRAP. Could see gusts 60-80 mph per bufkit soundings lol...sustained 25-40

Could be pretty bad. Lake levels on Erie are very high so lakeshore flooding might be severe. 

7 hours ago, MetHerb said:

Since when does population density rule over weather?

I know thats a US map but the weather also doesn't stop at the border. Winnipeg Manitoba has a Metro of 850,000k. Just to the west (70 miles) Brandon Manitoba has a population of 60K. Fargo has 120K and Grand Forks 60K. 

Though a lot of you guys arent wrong with shrugging the shoulders about it haha. Here in Toronto it made the news but more of "wow, that sucks that Manitoba is going to get a blizzard. They get that in October though right...in other news" 

Toronto unofficially broke the all time October record with a high of 31.8C or 89.2F beating the record of 31.6C  or 88.9F. 

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anger underneath warmth in Sept? Pissed its not 45 and raining I guess he assumes. Forky stopped by, Dews came back, both thinking, like trolling in mid Jan, people would get upset. Early troll game in full swing. They will disappear at the first sign of cold. Its as predictable as Kevin calling for every east coast hurricane a threat to SNE.

Thats why im loving this AN weather here in the eastern great lakes. This time of the year weeks/days make big differences. Right now a very cold day would be 45F and rain like you said, in 3 weeks it could be 35F with rain/snow and first sloppy accumulations for the typically colder regions. 

Edit-For the great lakes last year we went from 70-80F and endless sunny days in September/Early October to 3-5" of lake effect snow on October 16th. After that winter settled in and we saw countless well below average days. Hoping for a repeat this year 

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

CPC has pretty high confidence in warmer than average at 6-10 and 8-14 days.  If that happens (and models/ensembles are certainly supportive) it generally will slow the typical progression of the fall colors over the next couple weeks. 

Im enjoying this because September and early October cold is a waste. Same as late February to early April for warmth. 

Right now 10F below average would give me highs in the upper 50s in about a months time 10F below average would give me lower to mid 40s and a chance at early season snow. It happened last year, September was a scorcher and into Canadian Thanksgiving (2nd weekend in October normally) was warm. A quick flip and by late October we had lows in the 20s and occasional snow. 

Edit-Im also a seasonal construction worker so Id prefer the 70s and sun. We are trying to close up as many projects throughout the province of Ontario but every year a few dont make the cut. 

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Might have a shot at 90 next week.  At least upper 80s looks achievable.  This would be a little bit later than the average last 90 degree day but not wildly unusual.

Up here looks like lower 80s. Definitely hope theres a few more days of 80s but they will start to become rare fast around here. Trees seem to be changing a bit faster than usual, anyone else seeing this?  

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Met fall is almost upon us.  Year just seems like it's flying by.

After a bit of a cool start especially in the first day or two, it appears a warmup may occur.  

I was just working up in Timmins Ontario (450 miles due north pretty much of Toronto) and it dipped to 32F this morning resulting in the first real frost of the season. It quickly rebounded to the low 70s and thats why I love late August/September. 

Good chance of snow mixing with rain from Algonquin Park (2.5 hours north of Toronto) north into the Val-d'Or regions of Quebec tonight. 

If that verifies that means a good chance that only July and August dont see snow in that region. By Late September its not unheard of to get flurries up there. 

3 hours ago, NegativeEPO said:

Last year we had a top 5 warmest May. This year, it’s looking like a top 5 coldest, and potentially the coldest of all time. Do we even hit 80 this month? 

Youve been saying it since March. Now I know your mostly venting, but ill concede that yes, this is now one of the worst starts to the warm season for some time. I havent seen the sun in days 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

March 1st today! Heard the birds chirping this morning. It's coming.  

March 10th is when average highs start to be in the 40s at Buffalo. 

I love it. Next weekend the clocks change as well. So the sun will be setting at 7:30pm in 9 days 

Also way off topic but I also love March for March Madness. Lets go Bulls, I love the fact Buffalo has emerged on the National stage. Ranked top 25 all season and finally getting some respect. 

39 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Welcome met spring!  What a great month of weather to end met winter.  A little over 100" fell here in February... still moving it around and pushing it away from things and taking the load off the roof.  Six more weeks of solid snow-storm climo, and with an icy Superior, probably another cold spring, super short summer with a light frost occurring in late August and then snow by October. 

Monthly stats for MQT

snow- 89.9" (6.88 liquid)

Avg temp-  10.4 (departure -5,1)

lowest-   -25

highest-  32

greatest depth-  53"

 

We should place some bets when all the snow on your property will be fully gone haha. I remember there used to be one with a snowman webcam somewhere in northern MI or Northern MN. 

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I did not realize Toronto got snow with this one. How much?

I should probably change my username as I live in rural Hamilton now, just outside Brantford Ontario. The wide open fields and fresh snow made it a mess. 

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I did not realize Toronto got snow with this one. How much?

Sorry, not much snow in the city itself. Maybe 1" and some areas that got stuck under some more persistent snowsqualls could have seen 2-3". I was more referencing just outside the main GTA. Even there not much 4-8" but it was the blowing and drifting. Environment Canada issued Blizzard warnings for a good chunk of Southern Ontario which is rare to see. 

This will go down as one of the worst storms I've seen. Not really because of snow amount but the blowing and drifting creating consistent white outs. If your travelling outside the GTA today its next to impossible. dozens of road closures and a 50-70 car pileup on the 400 south of barrie has shut that down as well. 

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/02/25/major-pile-up-involving-50-70-vehicles-on-hwy-400-in-barrie/

power went out on Hamilton Mountain for about 20 minutes. Lights have flickered a few times since

Its pretty crazy the difference in winter weather expectations/dealing with snow between LE areas and non-LE areas. Toronto should see 6-10" from this and for me down in Hamilton 4-8". Theres already talk of stay off the roads, work from home if you can, most likely numerous school cancellations. Our local weather station (The weather network) is in storm watch mode. However, you guys just saw widespread 10-20" two weeks ago, that would most likely have crippled Toronto for days. You guys are definitely more prepared for snow compared to us which is funny since it runs against the American-Canadian stereotype of Canadians being winter hardened. 

1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Regardless, have to admit that this is one of the better snow seasons we've had this decade.

This storm has high bust potential for forecasters. The exact time of changeover, where the dry slot ends up and where exactly the low tracks will be big for the GTHA. 

My first call would be for a solid 6-10" event north of the 401 followed by freezing rain/ice pellets and then dry slotted. I dont think rain makes it that far north.

South of the 401 (Burlington-Toronto) I think 5-8" with freezing rain and ice pellets maybe a brief change over to rain before dry slotted 

Hamilton-Niagara 3-5" with several hours of ice pellets/freezing rain followed by a few hours of rain followed by dry slot. 

I think someone in Central/Eastern Ontario ends up with 20" 

long time lurker of this sub. I enjoy reading the discussions you guys have, generally when a pattern is good for you its okay for Southern Ontario. Right now I'm in a slightly better position regarding this pattern but still getting shafted by the lows all going far NW of even us here in S.Ontario. 

I wonder if there will be enough front end snow + at least .25" of ice to warrant a winter storm watch for the tuesday storm.