mississaugasnow

Just now, McHenrySnow said:

Ummm......duh? 

I think we've drifted into banter. Just saying some people here think winter is supposed to be like the arctic and assume our summers are also like the Deep South lol. 

41 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Yes, we had two big snows in April 2019, but the month as a whole averaged above normal temp-wise. Snow in April, even several inches, lasts for a day or two and then it's 70º again. 

Spring in the Great Lakes isn't supposed to be sustained warmth. Never has been. 

Winter in the southern Great Lakes is also never supposed to be sustained cold and snow on the ground from November-March lol. Toronto-Detroit-Chicago are supposed to see numerous thaws with temperatures normally getting into the 50s almost every year in winter. 

I understand April will (normally) never be wall-wall 70s and sun but January is never (normally) supposed to be wall-wall 15F heavy snow and lows of 0F. 

52 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Can't imagine the desire for an above normal spring. it's already going to be 80 + for three months straight, minimum. Move to Florida!

Mid March-Mid May around the Great Lakes might be the most depressing weather of the year. Any big time cold outbreak isn't winter legit its 42F with showers and wet snow flakes with higher terrain seeing 3-6". Its mud season and worst of all everyone just outside the immediate great lakes is enjoying 70s-80s like Missouri, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois  (away from the lakes). While MN, NY, PA, MI get non stop back door cold fronts. 

Its part of our climo and im used to it but thats why I want an above average spring haha. 

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Honestly I cannot remember the last time we had what I would consider an average Spring green up here. Most of the time it has run late than of course we had the ridiculous early in 2012. 

 

 I do want to caution that regardless of what kind of Winter it is the weather in March and April is the main factor for Spring green up.  Some of the region's most notoriously warm winters of years past had widespread reports of flowers blooming mid Winter, even some trees blossoming (1889-90, 1918-19, 1931-32), but March ans April cold snaps were all that was needed to halt any early Spring green up. Likewise, before 2012, by far the earliest spring Greenups we had seen were 1945 and again in 1946, due to big March torches. What was crazy about 1945 is that it came after a pretty severe winter (which in itself was rare for the meager winters of the 40s). So really what happens in spring is the main factor.

Ya, right now nothing will be blooming as even though it seems warmer its mostly the nighttime lows. Looking back at Toronto January so far and most days were in the mid 30s and lows in mid 20s. 

Im hoping we see 1-2 more legit snowstorms of at least 4-8 inches and some decent cold in the single digits and then crank the thermostat for March and April haha. 

49 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

This years Nov-Dec MEIv2 came in at -1.2C. Oct-Dec ONI came in at -1.3C. 

Below are February & March composites from the 6 years since 1979 with Nov-Dec MEIv2 between -1.0C & -1.5C. This gives a good idea of our current "base state" from ENSO... not accounting for any SSW impacts. Because the SSW has been impacting the polar height field (i.e via -AO/NAO) and will continue to do so, I don't think these are a perfect representation of what the overall pattern will look like. However... this 500mb look could certainly show up through the Feb-March period.

Wouldnt mind a warm spring for a change so hoping that happens. Could be a very early spring vegetation wise in the SE and up into the Great Lakes. 

Im also thinking that the Lakes have little chance of getting a good solid ice cover this year which should help out locally with early spring temperatures. 

Lucky Toronto got a hot start from Mid November to just after Christmas. This winter won't go down in the history books for no snow, but some individual months like January might. 

All this hype about big time cold and big time storms......Keeps getting punted further and further. 

31 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

And bone dry. We’ll need to score before this because the lakes will freeze up quickly during this period 

Im doubtful Erie fully freezes this year. This should get some ice going though. 

The cold air keeps getting pushed. Im intrigued by the lack of Great Lakes ice and I think this will be a year where Lake Erie barely freezes. 

Also starting to notice the later sunset here (33 minutes later now  ) 

22 minutes ago, Stebo said:

They are purposely lying because no other logical explanation.

Ontario tried that in the Fall by saying testing is why we're finding new cases. A few weeks later when hospitals slowly started to see increase we barely did anything and said its mostly noise because of testing and that numbers have plateaued. 

Sitting here now 6 hours away from a Stay Home Mandate with no restaurants, gyms, malls, open. Curbside pick up for Home Depots, Lowes, Canadian Tire ect.. 

Kind of wish we were a bit stricter in the fall/December but ah well no going back now. 

47 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

I think the opposite happens. 40’s/50’s and 60’s April to almost memorial weekend. Even some flakes in early May! Lol 

I hope not haha 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The middle of the month was the beginning of the pattern change. This week brings chances of snow, we did not have that the last few weeks. 

Possibly for Lake Effect and areas further east, but the next 10+ days still look pretty boring in the GTHA down thru Michigan/Indiana 

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lakes will be on fire starting next week

Im still not sold. A lot of the models keep pushing back the colder air. A lot of chatter was January 15th and now its 1-2 weeks past that date, with some even starting to punt to February. Ive had snow on the ground for the last 10 days and since I'm more of a snow cover guy this winter will continue to get decent grades from me. 

13 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

Euro weeklies is warm for late Jan into most of February 

Id rather not have a cool spring so a jump right into spring in march would be welcome. 

3 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Highs in the 40s in March is considered warm ? Sounds awfully cold to me. Im hoping to see 70s in March.

haha thats very rare up here. 

you peeked my interest though so a quick search and I can see why you'd say that. 

Toronto average high early March is 33F low 24F      End of March 44F low 32F 

Indy- Early March 46F low 30F                                      End of March 58F low 40F 

Every single spring, those 70s-80s you guys get end up getting crushed crossing Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and translate to 30s/40s along the lake and 50/60s inland. Buffalo for example is significantly colder in the spring than Rochester. Im now 15 miles from both Lake Ontario and Lake Erie so my house will be 55F and sunny but if you drive to the shore its foggy and 35F. Its pretty cool to watch your truck thermometer  just plummet 

Im thinking most of January is a dud. Not saying something random couldn't come about, look at Texas-Alabama right now lol.

But overall Im okay with it because if it means February can be rocking then we have a warm early spring hopefully. I love March with highs in the 40s/50s and sun with clear chilly nights in the low 20s. 

13 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I’ve kind of lost track of the CFL. Do you still have the Hamilton Tiger Cats?

Yep, Hamilton still has the tiger cats and Toronto the Argos. The CFL had to miss the entire season in 2020 and they hope to play in 2021. 

Im a Bills season ticket holder but I still do occasionally watch the CFL in the summer and almost always tune in for the Grey Cup. I know ESPN plays the Grey Cup but I was surprised when I was in Pennsylvania a few summers ago and saw ESPN playing a regular season CFL game haha. I watched it mostly because I was amazed they were showing it 

Edit* I hated the Toronto series the Bills did. I understand why they did it, but I hated it haha. 

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm so excited and nervous. I feel pretty confident against the Colts thinking 28-17.

Pretty close to what Im thinking as well. Going with 30-13. 

Lets go Bills! 33F and Sunny for the game. Id be lying if I didn't say I'm very nervous haha 

2 hours ago, dmc76 said:

Every week for this epic storm gets pushed back. Last week was 10-15th. This week it’s the 15-21st. This is how you know you’re in a warm winter

Yep, I was enjoying the random 1-2" snowfalls. Luckily GTHA goes into this boring period with about 3-4" of snow on the ground. 

Ideally it holds off until late January and we get 4-6 weeks of cold shots and storminess and pattern change again in mid march with above seasonal temps. I dont even know the last time we had a warm second half of march and April. 

4 hours ago, nwohweather said:

It’s 80° and partly sunny at my house right now and I am spending the holidays with freezing rain haha awesome

Almost like clockwork once January hits I start looking at first signs of spring in the Deep South. Still a few weeks away but by late January the first signs start appearing along the gulf coast. February and march are fun to watch it take off from Deep South into places like Virginia/Kentucky 

3 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

There's always a new strain  they will scare the general population in any way possible to take the vaccine. 

At least face masks are lowering numbers....o wait..

Theres also always a communist bogeyman hiding whenever conservatives feel upset or scared. 

1960s civil rights- you bet commies are coming to integrate the south

Late 1960s anti-vietnam- you bet commies are the main organizers 

1980s-pro abortion- nailed it again with those atheist commies 

2010s tax increase and affordable care act/occupy Wall Street/black lives matter- You bet every one of those was orchestrated by commies 

How else would conservatives rile up the base without yelling communists? 

Ontario sees nearly 3000 new cases today. Hospitalization and ICU are at record levels beating the previous peak in the spring. 

I know winter is only a quarter of a way thru but March to me isn't a real "winter" month. Its similar to November in the sense that sunny and 60s in march happens regularly enough that its baked into our minds that March is pretty much a spring month. January and February are winter months but by late February there's no denying sun angle and the first warmth you start to feel in the car with just the sun out. 

Thats also completely up to what you consider winter. Some of the upper midwest and prairie provinces biggest snowstorms/blizzards are in April and October which to me is a waste because even that far north its quickly back into the 50s-60s with sun almost right after the snow ends. 

Im going to enjoy tracking this. You guys deserve a big storm 

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

And that’s the trend for 2 cycles. West.  Congrats Detroit. 

I know this is a slow start for CNY but I dont think what were seeing  are Great Lakes cutters recently. CNY is in an even weirder position compared to most eastern Great Lakes region. Your almost better with those monster storms that ride up the coast or just inland. 

But a typical Great Lakes cutter is one that goes up towards Chicago and the western Great Lakes, giving Michigan, Ohio, PA, NY rain and Wisconsin, N. Illinois ect.. a snowstorm. 

On the plus side your sub is pretty small so you share a lot of victories but also the loses lol. Since I live in GTA I use your sub and Great Lakes/OV sub. That ones massive haha. I track snowstorms with people from Iowa, Minnesota all the way to eastern Ohio haha.  

Buffalo is finally cashing in big time since last night and its nice to see them get the 4-8" snowstorm followed by 15-25" of Lake Effect.