mississaugasnow

2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Theres always this, then one massive event changes the narrative. 

Thats the problem with the GTA we can't hope for a big LES outbreak. Our bread and butter is clippers followed by big dogs riding up the apps. If those two disappear were in a lot of trouble haha. I took a peak at 2011-2012 and you guys still did well in my books but must have felt like a big snow drought for your regions. Toronto saw 16" that entire winter. KBUF registered 20" in January alone haha 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What was the total snowfall in 2011-12 there? I always find it strange that every year when a mild pattern is showing up some start fearing 2011-12 lol. I actually don't fully disagree with you, I think its going to be a roller coaster of ups and downs, but I will be shocked if a stormy nina fails to materialize and snowfall ends up as bad as you fear 

about 16" fell that winter with January being the biggest month with 6.4" 2nd place was February with 4.2" and 3rd was December with 3". Then November, March, April all had just under 1" 

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m sensing a continuation of a terrible trend this winter...

Yep, Im thinking this winter will be a warm one with probably the lowest amount of snow in roughly a decade. Hate to say passing on winter in mid/late November but the trends have not been our friends haha 

Ill be the first to complain haha 

currently rest of November and beginning of December looks like write offs. 

Im going to say we challenge the 2011-2012 winter in the GTA. I think we see one moderate snowstorm this year of 3-6" but most of the winter will be like today with off and on lake effect giving us a dusting-0.5" followed by quick warm ups. Rinse and repeat 

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nope, it looks extremely warm for all of December right now.

Ya, still early but this is starting to feel like one of those winters where it barely snows. I believe toronto only saw 14" that winter. 

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Lol love this!  Alot have demonstrated already that they can't think for themselves.  It's sad. 

I can't wait to post that I got an 18" storm when the airport and others around me say only 6" fell. Not my problem I measured in a drift and since we've all given up on facts it would be a fact that my measurement is correct. But please don't ask me to go measure the bare ground beside the snow drift, that's fake news. 

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Good stuff

I find that aspect of republicanism interesting. If you follow that belief to the end point you end at libertarianism. How come a vast majority of Republicans force anti-abortion legislation, drug legislation, marriage legislation, religion in school ect.. If you believe the government has no right in an individual's life than how come they have problem with those? At least libertarians acknowledge to the most part that since they believe in little to no government  (like some have mentioned on this board) they find it hypocritical to enforce with laws aspects of society they don't agree with (see above) 

Don't want to wear a mask cool, then keep your hypocritical mouth shut protesting that government needs to enact laws restricting other peoples rights because it makes you feel uneasy. (this wasn't in reference to anyone here, just in general) 

Just got back from the Dunnville region. Haven't seen waves or surge that high in 7 years of living/visiting in the Lake Erie region. 

I witnessed the halloween storm but this was the first time I felt like it was actual chasing. Started outside of Dunnville and made my way to the inlaws. Had my Kestrel and registered a few gusts at 109km but not close to what Port Colborne or St.Catherines saw. Waves built steadily and just after sunset the lake overtook the 6 foot break wall (sunk and damaged from previous storms its getting fixed soon) Id estimate the wave height was about 10-15 feet. Looking directly out we can see the towns of Angola-Dunkirk. Just non stop spray from the top of the waves out in the middle of the lake facing that direction right before night fell. 

Nothing to do with this current topic but can you guys Haldimand-Norfolk and Port Colborne from the south towns? You guys have the quick elevation gain away from Lake Erie on that side while we are just flat farmlands like the Midwest on this side. 

3 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Yep. There was a seiche near the turn of the century that was large enough to flood downtown buffalo all the way to the first ward. I think several people drowned. 
edit: 1844 and 78 people died. 

wow, thanks for sharing that. I guess it sets the precedence that it can/will happen again at some point 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Ya, those are starting to become some legitimate gusts. 

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

I think it happens on Erie more than we realize. The orientation is so favorable for massive seiches with these storm tracks, and seiches go hand in hand with prolonged unidirectional strong winds and thus massive waves. I dunno, seems plausible
Anyway, I do agree this is an intriguing system and actually trending stronger in the final 24 hours which is contrary to how a lot of these high wind events played out last year. Needless to say I’m excited!  
 

Do you think KBUF registers a gust over 65mph? 

23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I like seeing this trending strong but that guy doesn’t check the weather up here much. 20’ waves are routine on the Great Lakes every fall and winter. In fact they get bigger than that in the biggest events. 

Aside from that part though the event is starting to look legit. The Grand River conservation authority over here is calling for significant storm surge and flooding in areas near the shoreline. Ill be heading down to the Dunnville-Port Colborne region tomorrow to check it out. 

6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I like seeing this trending strong but that guy doesn’t check the weather up here much. 20’ waves are routine on the Great Lakes every fall and winter. In fact they get bigger than that in the biggest events. 

for Lake Ontario or Lake Erie? Lake Superior holds the record for largest wave recorded in the Great Lakes at 28.8 feet in 2017, so though it might be routine getting over 20 feet it starts maxing out the height the waves can get. 

I tried finding Lake Erie data and almost every article discussing 20+ foot waves had it for Lake Ontario and Lake Huron. Superior routinely goes 23-27 feet in the worst storms. It can happen on Erie but it seems to be the least likely of the Great Lakes to routinely get 20 foot wave storms. 

47 minutes ago, Stebo said:

You want that west about 200 miles to be anything meaningful for this subforum outside of far eastern Ohio.

While I enjoy snowstorms, for late November and December I can live with getting 1-2" every 4-5 days from streamers/clippers and temperatures consistently below freezing. Gives it a better Christmas feel haha. Come January-March though I agree that below average temperatures and 1-2" starts to lose the allure. 

35 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Or perhaps false positives for antigen tests are possible ?

Lol don't forget elon also said there would be no cases by April. Hes wilfully ignorant with science pertaining to covid but pumps it up for global warming. Not starting a debate about global warming, I just find it funny how when the science helps his pocket book because the government is regulating fossil fuels he's down with it but the moment it impacts his factories its fake. 

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is shaping up to be a nice wind event. 

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

A record day in MI almost 7000 cases. This is only getting worse because of ignorance and carelessness.

Ontario came out with new modelling and best case scenario we have 2500 new cases a day by December and worst case is 6K+. No matter what though ICU is strained within 2 weeks and if worst case happens we join you guys with our hospitals just being completely overrun. 

4 hours ago, andyhb said:

Storm on Sunday could be quite the wind maker on the Lakes.

Ya, looking at heading down to Lake Erie Sunday to check out the waves and possible lakeshore flooding. 

what's everyones thoughts on the Sunday storm? Looks like there could be some big winds and lakeshore flooding along Lake Erie 

15 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Well liberals will say spend trillions more. Problem is read any serious paper, states are running out of money FAST. My company is worried about the lack of money available for infrastructure projects as the government continues to shell out absurd gobs of money with their tax revenues declining due to this.

What happens when the dust settles? We’re going to have to raise interest rates and taxes considerably on all people to make up for the extreme level of government spending to get through this pandemic. Can’t throw away the entire 2020’s for this

Pretty sure the 20s are gone. It took over 4-6 years to claw back to normalcy after the 07-08 crisis. 

You seem very capitalist and nothing wrong with that, but my issue is this. In Ontario small businesses said "please government get out of the way and let us open" while at the same time lobbying the federal government for payroll subsidies/tax deferral/an assortment of goodies. Thats straight up socialism. My mindset is to have the government spend its way out of this but I also think businesses can't have it both ways. You want to be open then Bleep off with asking for help from the government. 

In case there's any misconstruing what I mean. The government should shut it down and support the businesses and individuals impacted. health comes first. 

24 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its because we have the travel restrictions. It works better than anything else. 

Hows everyday life out in St.Johns? Here in the GTA we keep trying to open more and more even though were seeing nearly 1400 cases a day now. Gyms, restaurants and stuff are open everywhere aside from Toronto itself. 

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think the data suggest small family gatherings are driving a lot of infection. Schools themselves don't appear to be a major driver. Im sure there's some seasonality. Less people are outside in October/November and respiratory viruses tended to spread better in cooler/lower humidity environments. The infection controls that worked in August may be less effective now. 

Ontario and Canada in general is falling apart with handling it properly. Ontario is having record day after record day. You guys out in maritimes/Atlantic Canada are doing well but everyone west of Quebec is failing. 

While 70s and sun is nice and the average temperature is still in the 40s, looking at the extended and it looks like November will be a nothing month. We only average 3-4" so not crazy to go with nothing but an awful start to the season compared to last year. 

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Quest has been doing them in under 24 hours, that’s where I plan on getting mine. I’ll be getting a bunch because of this new policy

wow that's crazy, Ontario is now over 1100 new cases a day (a record today) but we have nothing like that as far as I know. How does something like that work for the tri-state area? 

9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yes, but the SE ridge has been there for 3 winters in varying intensities. It should not be a permanent fixture of our winters.

If were going to have warmth im okay with it in early November. The averages for the first half of November are still in the 40s/50s here so even -5/-10F below normal barely gets us to wet slop while the + departures gets us great early October weather.