mississaugasnow

I will always still visit the banter but...

somehow there's a swath from immediate Detroit Metro down to Cleveland up thru most of southern Ontario including GTHA and depending how the lake effect snow goes tonight-tomorrow immediate Buffalo Metro. 

This region has repeatedly cashed in with multiple 1-3" and a few legit snowstorms in the 4-8" with Christmas delivering Toronto-Buffalo and Cleveland a 4-8" snow and Detroit a surprise 2-3" snow. 

Reading large parts of the sub talk about 1" being the biggest event of the year makes me feel pretty grateful that I'm now approaching 20" on the season before January. 

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Is this the 3rd storm this year you guys thought nothing was coming and ended up jack-potting? The theme of this year is the storm goes 50-100 miles further west than modeled last minute. Definitely Torontos winter so far. What are you guys at so far?

YYZ is at almost 20" on the season before this storm. Where I live is in Haldimand County, about 15-20 minutes south of Hamilton. Ive received about 14" so far. 

The big difference was that storm earlier in the year where YYZ and most of the GTA got 7-11". I managed a decent 2-3" slop and then rain. That storm alone accounts for much of the disparity. 

Biggest storm of the year so far for me was 15.5cm or about 6". Im at a little over 3" fallen so far (taken about an hour ago) and it looks like this should end up my biggest storm of the year so far. 

Heading to bed with now just over 8cm or a little over 3". Went for a long walk with the fiancé and the dog in it an hour ago.

For this to be the biggest storm of the year (in my backyard) we just have to get over 15.5cm. A lot of the models were showing over 8" here by tomorrow afternoon so looks like the biggest storm of the season for me will coincide with Christmas. 

Merry Christmas everyone. 

16 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Easy to see the mix line on C.C. It’s nearly stationary over BUF. 
 

Niagara Falls reporting 32F and snow. KBUF still 35F and light rain. 

This looks to be a very tight gradient setting up in Buffalo metro. 

31F here just outside Hamilton with light snow. About 1" so far. Local TV mets now calling for widespread 6-8" with 8-12" not out of the question in some areas. 

will try to update a few times throughout the night. Going to go for a nice long snow talk with the dog and fiancé. 

15 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Still room for shifts. Extremely tight gradient but a lot of factors impacting the exact strength and track of that secondary low. The main thing imo is how much the trough digs. I'd say tonight’s 00Z runs will be key but tomorrow's 12z runs will give us the best clarity. Potential is there for either 1-2" (2-5cm) or 4-8" (10-20cm). Not going to write it off just yet. 

ya, so far its been the story of the winter haha. I'm 1/3 on these tracks this year, watching Brampton/Markham get 10-20cm while I get 2-5cm. Either way I think Christmas morning will be white, just depends if its a legit winter storm or just a nice coating. 

Hope everything is going well with you and you're able to make the most out of this weird holiday season. A bigger storm with actual winter storm watches might be a blessing. With a lockdown of Southern Ontario looming on Boxing Day, a storm might persuade more people to forgo the drives across the region and stay home. 

19 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

True desperation.  Plus, it's snow weannies time of the year

haha the west trends have all but ended the storm for the Buffalo-Niagara Falls and GTA. Thankfully this storm has received almost no hype in the immediate GTA so I dont even need to update anyone to calm down. 

I still think christmas itself is somewhat white with 2-5cm of snow and flurries. Lake Effect though in southern Niagara and Buffalo could be interesting 

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Unless youre in a prime lake effect location, I'm not really banking on impressive snowfall totals with this Christmas system.  The pace of this thing is just unreal, especially if the GFS type scenario played out.  I can't imagine we could get more than an inch or two of snow before the precip tapers off, BUT at least it would be a white Christmas!!  As for the lake effect, that certainly looks prime but somewhat short lived with modest warm air advection starting by Saturday afternoon.  That said, with 2-3" an hour rates, 24-36 hours will more than enough time for some very hefty totals.  I'm considering driving into Buffalo to Chase a bit on Christmas seeing as I  won't be visiting anyone for this year       That will be a game time call but it's definitely on my radar!

In Summary, unless you're in one of those key lake effect spots, don't get your hopes up for a big dump.  Just not a good synoptic setup.   

ya as someone not seeing any lake effect from this- Im excited for 1-3" of wet snow to make Christmas Day look great. 

Aside from that I'm mostly too far west in this sub because for immediate WNY and GTA to get a good storm 80% of this sub gets rain and in the other sub I post in (Great Lakes) I'm too Far East where if I get good snow most of that forum misses it or if they get good snow I get rain 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Icon would be a record les event for Buffalo. 

Looks like you guys will get something decent which is great. On the other hand all the promise of big winter weather seems to be falling apart. Hamilton is rain followed by flurries and cold air. lol watching the goalposts get pushed back every few weeks by those saying big time Nina winter on the way is pretty interesting (for the Great Lakes) 

22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It's like non stop on the gfs lol (synoptic and LES)

Ill be honest, I'm not convinced. Its still 6+ days out and the models the last few years have always shown cold and stormy pattern 5+ days away and then magically it turns to a warmer more strung out solution. 

50 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Its awful. Can tell this certainly went to the lowest bidder... 

lol I must be the only one who doesnt mind it. Environment Canada also updated its radar recently (for the app) 

I use radar scope personally but I also check out NWS and EC ones. 

Why doesnt the NWS have an app? EC came out with an app maybe 1-2 years ago and I like it. 

17 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That’s crazy. The only storm that comes to my mind that is comparable in amounts is probably the Blizzard of 93. And that storm was 2-3x the size of this one.  Give me a storm like this in Jan or Feb. Thanks! 

Did you get much last night? Though sucks to miss the main storm, woke up to 1.5" of powdery snow. With the snow cover -5C and grey overcast skies its my perfect winter morning. Unlike all the other storms this year, this one actually has a winter feel to it. The other ones felt more spring like with temperatures rising back to above 0C once the snow stopped. 

YYZ and most of the GTA in general keeps its run of good luck going. widespread 1-3" for everyone from the Nor'easter and another 2-4" for areas that can get the lake effect snow. Ill wait and see but some local stations are even mentioning Oakville-Hamilton could see 6-8". 

2 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said:

technically florida allows 100% occupancy at sports venues, but nobody has tried to do that.

Nope, but Cleveland tonight on MNF looked the most packed out of any stadium I've seen yet. My one friend kept saying in the summer the NFL won't allow any fans and I said I bet fans go if allowed. That argument has now turned into well I didnt think they'd be dumb enough. Moving the goal posts as I never agreed on the smartness of the idea. 

We can laugh now at full MLB stadiums in mid/late summer because it sounds dumb but if the NFL and College Football are doing 5-30K fans in the midst of the worst part of the entire pandemic I don't know how you don't think some MLB teams will be going full steam ahead. By July even Canada is supposed to be well over 50% vaccinated and with the warmer weather (as Canadians saw this past summer) the numbers will plummet. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Between some semblance of herd immunity and 20-25 million vaccines per month each month, we should be able to fully open up by sometime in the April-July window. NFL season should feature 100% fan attendance by first week of September.

Im thinking that NHL and NBA playoffs have some fans in the stands. MLB is the first one to most likely do the slow build. Maybe 25% in April, 50% May, 75% June and full by July. 

2 hours ago, Looking to the skies said:

It would be nice to come to a weather forum and see weather chatter. Every time I click on this region( where I once lived and have many friends) to check, I get sent to here because this is all there is to this forum. 
I know, I can go to main heading and search for Weather, but goodness..

just my thoughts, back to your 220+ pages of politics on the weather forum

I guess you didnt see me complaining in the banter. Ill save you the click. The start to this winter is okay in my backyard but sucks overall and I don't know if the storminess everyone thinks will happen will actually happen. 

lol everything else on this sub is weather aside from this one thread 

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I think I never liked "throw in the towel" because it's so subjective. Throw in the towel on what? Along, sustained Winter? In that case Early to mid January would be that towel being thrown. If we simply talking about getting some good snowstorms, I can't throw that towel for another 4 months. Im armed with way too much weather data on la nina winters to worry about mid December zzzs. 

Ya, I think that goes back to my personal preference. I know March and occasionally April can have some decent winter events 2-8" but that personally does nothing for me and by April in Toronto the averages fly from mid 40s to upper 50s by the end. So Id rather 45-50F and sunny and 55-60F in the 2nd half of April then track a 3-6" snowstorm. Snow to me at that time of year is more annoying because im ready to start planting and cleaning up the yard. 

Since it is banter. Ive mentioned before that this winter has already been given a C because of its decent start for my backyard. However, Im pretty confused by all the optimism and goal post moving and doubling down on winter. Its Mid December and though winter is nowhere close to done, December looks zzzz so that means a lot of places will have to really start crushing it come January and February. At what date do we start to see more of the board throw in the towel? If in two weeks the long range still looks garbage? Mid January? 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Since we are in the banter section, I have a curious question about white christmases for other snow lovers. I absolutely love Winter, and I absolutely love Christmas. It goes without saying that I want a white Christmas every year. However, If it is not a white Christmas I enjoy the holiday just as much. I am surprised at how many non-weather folks REALLy want a white Christmas and are disappointed if it's not, but then they complain every time it snows from January through April.  Does anyone else notice this?

haha ya I notice it. While not in the same boat I do want winter weather for November-February. Once November hits im pumped for that first 1-3" light snow event. That same event in March though I hate it and love the higher sun angle which destroys that tiny snowfall. By March a snowstorm to get me pumped and tracking would have to be 8-12"+ anything smaller and im annoyed routing for a pattern change that will bring sustained 40s during the day. 

2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

One thing is certain, we're in a very active pattern for the foreseeable future so at least there's plenty to track in the next 2 weeks unless something changes and that can always happen too so we'll see.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

With no cold air anywhere to be found it feels more like tracking storms in late October. Higher elevations and strong storms that generate their own cold air will have snow, aside from that the rest of us are rain 

16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Well-deserved for Toronto after experiencing 4 futility winters since 2006 lol. Temperatures were marginal even for us. It's been a weird start I agree. Quite a lot of disparity in amounts and precip types even just 20km apart. I had a hunch we'd get maybe an inch as I was looking at last night's HRRR but did not expect to see 2-4" across the GTA with the shortwave. 

Haha. I'm sure many people near the Lakeshore and south probably think it's another snowless start to winter. YYZ has missing snowfall data since Dec 1 so I’m not exactly sure what the YTD amount is officially but I’d suspect its between 35-40cm (14-16”).  I'm at 43.4cm (17.1") on the season as of today. Just for laughs, YYZ recorded 42.8cm (16.8”) back in 2011-12. 

Looks like a decent system for Muskoka this weekend. another 4-8" to just keep adding to their base. 

7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Well-deserved for Toronto after experiencing 4 futility winters since 2006 lol. Temperatures were marginal even for us. It's been a weird start I agree. Quite a lot of disparity in amounts and precip types even just 20km apart. I had a hunch we'd get maybe an inch as I was looking at last night's HRRR but did not expect to see 2-4" across the GTA with the shortwave. 

Haha. I'm sure many people near the Lakeshore and south probably think it's another snowless start to winter. YYZ has missing snowfall data since Dec 1 so I’m not exactly sure what the YTD amount is officially but I’d suspect its between 35-40cm (14-16”).  I'm at 43.4cm (17.1") on the season as of today. Just for laughs, YYZ recorded 42.8cm (16.8”) back in 2011-12. 

haha ya but for them I think using YTZ would show better that their thinking isn't that far from reality (For lakeshore areas and south) 

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Got a surprise 2.2" last night. Looks like a winter wonderland.

Toronto is cashing in big time. Nothing down here just south of Hamilton. Since temperatures have been so marginal its going to cause some weird memories for this winter. I see Buffalo Metro is rain and 34F while its suburbs are having one of its bigger snow events of the year with around 2-3". 

The first snowstorm from a few weeks ago will be remembered in Brampton where my dad recorded 10" but my moms house down on the lake in Mississauga saw trace amounts. So already my mom views this winter as barely starting and my dad says its off to a fast start haha 

Nothing here just south of Hamilton but looks like Toronto cashed in again with widespread 2-4" reported 

1 hour ago, brentrich said:

and there has been several reports about side effects, not looking good. 

There are several side effects to my Bills tailgating the following morning but I continually do it. 

Sorry, I know you're trying to be serious. The government will have to be very transparent about possible side effects and for the citizens to not be alarmed by them. 

39 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Biden is asking people to wear a mask during the first 100 days of his presidency (warning:  no mention of fringe theories about the EC voting against him).  

I think it's great to frequently encourage this from the top.  I am a bit skeptical on how many minds it can change as people seem to be pretty dug in, but even a small increase in mask wearing wouldn't hurt.

I can only guess the rationale for saying 100 days -- which goes to May 1 -- is that you want to give people who haven't been masking a finite endpoint and that you are hoping that the situation is under control, but I'm not sure about putting that time limit on it.  Not that he's actually saying that here's no way it wouldn't be extended, but it gives the impression that that's the end.  We will be getting some benefit of seasonality by then, as well as more and more people being vaccinated, but we really don't know how many people will have been vaccinated by then.  If it's less than hoped, then it's not out of the question that we could actually be coming down from a higher baseline than we saw in spring 2020.  

I can't see stores already lifting the mask requirement by May 1, but maybe I'm wrong.

What im starting to wonder is NHL and NBA regular season is little to no fans. But at what point do the cases start plummeting because of vaccine roll out/mask use/herd immunity? It would be amazing to see NHL and NBA venues with fans for the playoffs, even if just 50-75%. Playoffs start mid April normally for both leagues.