mississaugasnow

haha you guys are a tough bunch to please. 

7 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

It is important the side effects are known so people can make a rational decision if they want to take this experimental vaccine.  No reason for any healthy person under 65 to take it. 

I too like seeing 1/100000 risks. I don't walk near any river or lake since ive recently found out people have been known to slip and fall in. Theres no need to walk near a body of water when there is a perfectly good high school track to walk around. 

haha sorry I had too. Just dont take it if you dont want, but saying no reason for anyone under 65 is why I sent that sarcastic response. 

I live along the Grand River in Haldimand and its weird to have to follow River flooding updates (originally from the city where this wasn't really a big issue) Bad flood last year from the early January rainstorm. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/grca-flood-warning-entire-grand-river-watershed-1.5424109

Maybe a bit early for this, but I'm wondering what type of flooding potential this pattern is causing. With snow cover building up fast across most of the midwest and Great Lakes and lakes and rivers freezing we could be looking at a potentially pretty severe flood threat. 

Im thinking because its already February 8th and the pattern sticks around for another 10 days minimum, even just average in 10ish days is starting to get into the 40s for the southern part of the sub. 

Anyone have any idea how far south lakes and rivers are frozen? 

1 hour ago, Snownado said:

That really surprises me that a city so far south can get so cold. 40N is really not that far north.

geography and inland. Thats why coastal NC all the way up to coastal Virginia has vegetation more similar to the south instead of Nashville. Even Washington and Philly have a much warmer climate overall compared to the lower mid west even though they are similar 40N. 

First 0F or -18C of the season up on Hamilton mountain. Even Toronto is approaching its coldest night of the season so far with 8F or -13C at 10pm. Nothing like you guys out in the midwest but tonights cold is a bit better than what I expected. 

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GEFS spread long range is insane. They're having trouble handling the PV energy. Best course of action is day by day forecasting at this point.

Im at day 12 now with about 4" on the ground. Consistent winter weather across most of WNY and Southern Ontario. Even Most of the Midwest and Virginia-Maine with NYC-DC getting multiple snowstorms. 

Looks to be a lock for me to get to 20 days with consistent snow cover and even NYC will most likely go 14 days with snow on the ground. 

I know some of you will hate this but with the next 7-10 days looking at least seasonably chilly and 1-2" system snows every other day all I need is one more big storm 6"+ with winter storm watches/warnings. Come early-mid march I hope we flip the script and the SE ridge locks in and we get consistent above average temperatures. I love that first warm day of spring where it reaches 60-70F and sun. 

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

After traversing this lengthy period of very cold temps and things start to warm back up I think the feeling by most (especially the public) is that we really turned the page on deep winter.  Could be the first hint at spring fever for many if we suddenly get a few days in the 40s for example, after such a long period of cold.  Days are getting longer.  

I'm definitely enjoying these deep winter conditions; the deep snowpack, arctic temps, frequent snow events, etc.  I'll def enjoy whatever else ma nature throws at us going forward, but after this long stretch of deep winter I'll definitely start to think more and more about spring, and severe convective events, outside BBQs and the like.  

Thats why I love cold Februarys and March. When the switch happens you go from highs of 15-20F to 45-50F it feels amazing. Instead of a semi warm February and March that go from 35-40F to 45-50F. Kind of feels like your stuck in no mans land. 

6 hours ago, Snownado said:

I just find that incredible honestly. Isnt January colder on average than February ?

I think it was you and I a little while back talking about March temperatures. Up here in the eastern Great Lakes our coldest is normally delayed because of the lakes. A cold airmass in December has to travel across Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Lake Huron so it normally loses a bit of punch. By late January the Lakes are normally 32F or have significant ice cover thus allowing the air to stay "colder" 

Thats also why Niagara, Downtown Toronto, Downtown Buffalo  have about the same growing season as Central Indiana even though we are much further north. In October the lakes are warm enough that Central Indiana gets a frost and its 32F but in Buffalo/Toronto its 35-40F and the growing season continues. Same in May as the lakes have normally warmed enough to protect the lakeshore from late season frosts. 

Pretty cool to be seeing consistent Lake Effect light snow for most of the day so far up here in Northern Haldimand County. Theres a band just missing me to the north going thru Hamilton producing low visibility 

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Days like today are where UHI drives me crazy. I’m not even in the core of Chicago metro...and the high/low today has been 37/10 under nearly full sun. But in RFD, it looks like the high/low will end up being 30/2.

I know UHI may not explain all of it...but it doesn’t seem like there was much difference in air mass or cloud cover for here vs. RFD. It’s obnoxious. So much non snow covered pavement around here to absorb more of the sunlight, compared to rural areas. Could also be that the south winds today had more snow covered ground to cover out west by RFD, vs. here...although there is a pretty deep snowpack down by IKK. 

Good luck to you guys in the western Sub. Looks like Toronto cashed all its chips in November and December and will get cold but not extreme and some snow but also not worthy of much discussion. 

I do enjoy snow cover and cold but I can already tell the itch for spring has started. I enjoyed watching 35F and sun melt the snow outside which is generally the first sign I'm getting over winter. 

16 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

I dont think it matters who starts a thread. I honestly had no issue with brian d starting a thread to mix it up since SE MI needed something to shake things up but so much for that idea. Just one of those winters. And lol @ josh who said earlier today winters only half over. Its 75% over. Cant count on snow in march, maybe the first week.

I cut March into 1/3rds haha. The 1st/3rd is reliably winter,  mid way is difficult to get a good snow storm but happens and after about March 25th it becomes exceedingly rare for Toronto to get a snowstorm over 6". It has happened but its just as likely to be 50F and sunny or 1-3" and 32F. Id argue by late March its easier to get to 60F and sunny instead of a 6-10" winter storm. 

So overall I stop following snow chances right around St.Patricks day

Im good for a quick burst of 1-3" followed by some rain that doesnt destroy the snow pack followed by extreme cold. It would create a glacier that would be tough to melt.

2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Remind me: Guelph?

Can't say I'm as content with cold and dry as you are. Really the bane of my existence.  But February has been our money month snowfall wise the last 15 years or so, so I'm reasonably optimistic. 

Hamilton Mountain just off highway 6. I should probably switch my name haha 

8 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sEj8lUx0gwY

Im liking the seasonably chilly week followed by extreme cold. It will allow us to retain this semi-decent snowpack (3" up on the escarpment). Looking at the next 7-14 days shows some light snow/mix but nothing to write home about. 

I do enjoy following big time Southern US snowstorms as some models have shown so that would be fun to track. 

For the GTA im not expecting a whole lot in the next 10-14 days.  Seasonably chilly to begin with much colder in the long range looks certain which is nice in retaining snow. But overall storminess looks suppressed for my area. Enjoy CNY! 

2 hours ago, Kitchener poster said:

That would be pretty devastating in places like Kentucky. People will have to cover a lot of plants. 

Kentucky?  It would be brutal for them though but not many plants to cover that far north. 

Maybe the Deep South 

On 1/28/2021 at 12:04 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

Gfs is stupid cold in the long range. Hopefully this doesn't come anywhere close to verifying 

I love these maps in the winter as it clearly shows the climate difference that the Great Lakes cause compared to other similar areas. In the Summer it sucks until about July as the warmth gets destroyed trying to get into the immediate Great Lakes region. 

6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Anybody ever watch Heavy Rescue 401 on the Weather Channel?  It’s about heavy rescue trucks on the 401 in southern Ontario clearing wrecks off the highway. A lot of them take place in pretty rough weather, especially in the Huron lake effect bands. I imagine the 401 is in pretty rough shape in the London area tonight. 

In case you guys ever want to see web cams of the highways in and around southern ontario. https://511on.ca/#:Alerts

10 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree. But there's still room for it to shift further north. A lot of moving parts for complete consensus. Like our recent storm which came surprisingly further north overtime. The two things we must monitor if we want a shift further north is the massive trough to our east and the piece of energy near Hudson Bay and its downstream impacts on our storm. The massive NAO block near Baffin Island will likely rip apart our storm, should it progress further north, limiting how much snow we can get. But I'd be okay with another 2-4" storm. Like how we nickeled and dimed our way to average last winter. 

Whats interesting regarding the general public is generally numerous 2-4" events plus some sustained cold/snow cover will make a lot assume it was a harsh winter. 

The average Joe commuting to work or walking his dog won't really notice the difference between a 3" snow that slowed down his commute substantially compared to a 4-6" event that would have done the same thing and left the ground looking just as white. 

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Thinking 3 or 4" mby.  4-6 lollies, shockingly, probably going to be to my NW.

Oh well, just nice to be shoveling again.

Ill take this because it looks like we enter a decent chilly period after this storm until early-mid next week. 2-4" up here on the mountain and staying on the ground will help push some of the negative winter vibes away haha. 

Also some of the hardest snow of the winter currently falling here.

On 1/21/2021 at 8:54 PM, Kitchener poster said:

How many people here work in meteorology? Just curious. Those that do not, why are you interested enough in this field to participate or lurk on this forum? 
 

For me I study plant diseases and I am always interested in the environment. 

Loved weather as a kid and even had someone get me a present of being on the weather network morning show in the mid 90s for my 7th birthday haha. I used to be the weather weenie who played in snow in the front yard but wanted it "untouched" in the backyard and would get upset when I saw siblings playing back there haha. 

Went to Laurier for Global studies and post-grad in International development and worked at an NGO in the Middle East and Red Cross back home in Canada but then decided to go into construction (project manager) 

So now I have two time consuming hobbies haha following weather (I enjoy winter the most but summer heatwaves and severe weather are a close 2nd) and keeping up to date with international relations/development. 

Knowing the weather and upcoming patterns also helps me plan my projects accordingly. 

47 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Lake Michigan is still mild enough that it's actually causing temps to be near freezing for a while near the western shore.

haha I know im starting to get the spring itch when my eyes drawn immediately to the upper 50s/60s trying to poke into southern Indiana 

Environment Canadas forecast has tossed any snow for GTA. Im still thinking we might be able to squeeze a 1-2" snowfall and go into the cold week with at least something on the ground. 

The GTA should take 2-4" and run with it. Would be biggest snowfall in nearly a month