mississaugasnow

2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

What I don't think people are understanding is that, even here in far NE IL, our winter climo is horrible.  For people south of here, I don't know how you deal with it.  It's bad enough here.

Next week, highs will be 45-50...that should never happen in Dec.  It should never, ever be nice in DJF, where you walk outside and you can actually feel the warmth of the sun.  But the expected warmth next week is only about 10 degrees above normal here.  That's crazy.  So, unfortunately, these warm temps in the 2nd week of Dec are actually not that unusual.  That's the problem; there's just no margin for error for most of us.  In order to have a decent winter, basically every day needs to be at or below normal.  If our climo was just 5 degrees cooler, everything would be ok.  Precip is fine; temps are the killer.

Even in the depths of winter in January, a high of 40 here is just as common as a high of 20.  That's not good.  Highs near 20 and lows near 0 should be fairly common in winter.  Not saying that needs to be "normal"...but days like that shouldn't be unusual.  Unfortunately, they are.  When your climo is 30/15 even at the coldest time of year, there's no margin for error.  In Fall, when anticipating winter, you think "the days are getting shorter, time for winter'...just like it occurs for summer in May.  In JJA, we know it's going to be warm.  Just want the same idea for cold in DJF.  Seasons in seasons.  It doesn't need to be sub-zero every morning with feet of snow on the ground...but this bare dry ground crap with sun and daytime temps in the 40s is an absolute joke.  What's the point??  The shorter days don't even matter.  It was 60 on Christmas last year, even when it's nearly the shortest day all year. Does it ever feel chilly on June 21st, the longest day of the year?  No.  There needs to be a period in the year when you just know it will be cold and snowy.  Maybe not all of DJF...but at least mid-Dec to mid-Feb.  But there is actually no period at any point during the year when you can count on winter, as high temps of 40+ can occur occasionally here, on any day in Jan. 

It's the Midwest winter gradient that kills us.  Very few of us are on the right side of this gradient.  In N WI, average Jan highs are near 20.  But in central IL, it's near 40...not far as the crow flies.

We should all just stop pretending.  We have winter discussions, long range threads, obs threads, monthly threads, all this anticipation and excitement...but why??  Getting one or two exciting winter storms in a 90-day period is not winter.

It would just be nice, with covid and all of the other crap going on in the world and with daily life, if we could just enjoy some serious deep winter, where you don't have to look at indices and models and hoping for everything to come together.  It should just come together because it's winter.  Hard to get in the holiday spirit without it.  Nothing crazy...just something like 3"+ of snow per week, with 20s in the day and 10 at night...then if an occasional thaw occurs, there's enough residual snow on the ground to handle it before the next snow comes.  Maybe an occasional larger storm to shake things up a bit...and the occasional sub-zero morning...but what we need is consistency.  But it's not meant to be.  Folks are frustrated by this...I can't imagine I'm the only one.

I think this is more banter section. But your right the Lower lakes and lower midwest aren't favourable for sustained cold and snow. We should all know this but we still all like to complain (me included but like I said in banter this winter has checked off the boxes for me and already gets a C no matter what) I want cold and snow N/D/J and start to not care come February, certainly don't care about any snowstorms after March 5-10th 

29 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

But your snow will melt soon, if it hasn't already.  Doesn't really count for much, in my book...although of course it's always better to have storms vs. not having anything at all.  

By 12/10, there will probably be no snow cover at all in the Midwest...including the UP and even at INL.  That is shocking and ridiculous...it should be deep winter up there.  But people's expectations here are so low..."hooray, I got a 4" storm which melted in 2 days".  I guess some are content with that, but it's not winter.  Not picking on you specifically...just the general sense of the board.

If it's mid-late November and winter hasn't settled in, that's fine...but it's not right to have nice and mild sunny days in DJF.

28 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Nah. The November storm was a nice treat after the many snowless Novembers we had from 2006-2017. I'll take that as a win and well deserved after that hideous run. YYZ is up ~14" for the season which is an amazing start and I hope we can continue that. Almost everyone around us since 2009 has had some sort of record-breaking winter (in a good way). While we keep perpetuating 2007-08 and 2008-09, where many in this sub forum did well on anyways. We deserve a record-breaking winter because neither 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2017-18 were as it was for others. 3/5 futility winters happened since 2006-07 for a broader perspective which is insane. And to make it worse, 2005-06, 2015-16 and 2016-17 are in the top 10 or top 15 as well. So no, I am not ready for Spring. You need to expand your checklist because this ain’t it, chief.

I can answer both these relatively the same. Low expectations and low checklist is because of where I live/lived. I used to live right along the lakeshore in Mississauga so numerous winter events were slop, and now I live up on the escarpment but in the Hamilton/Niagara area so a lot of events are similar to lakeshore living (some aren't like Tuesdays storm) 

I also have a cottage though up hwy 11 in the Almaguin highlands (Parry Sound district but closer to hwy 11) and I go up there a bunch in the winter. They currently have 12" of snow on the ground and unlikely they see the ground again until April. Most winters up there max out around 25-40" on the ground from Late December-Mid March and regulary dip below -20C even in the warmest winters for the GTA. Its just a completely different world only 2.5-3.5 hours north of the city. 

So I guess long story short is I have a basic checklist for my home, but that's because I know what "real" winter is supposed to look like and the GTA will never have it lol. 

14 hours ago, Kitchener poster said:

We’ve had 2 decent winter storms so far. I’m already ready for spring. In just 18 days the amount of sunlight will be increasing each day. 

Ive had 1 decent winter storm and 1 mediocre slop fest with 2 other events that ranged from 1-2". Im already over 10" for the season and hit my typical once a season 6" snowstorm. Ive checked off the boxes and with the 6" snow coming December 1st it made for the Christmas feeling. 

I got lucky threading the needle with the 2nd storm and personally I enjoy front loaded winters so im content now. It can rain, it can snow, I could get an ice storm, but since my main winter boxes have been checked and checked early im already playing with house money haha. 

50 minutes ago, harrisale said:

Thanksgiving in Canada is not as big a deal as it is in the US, but people still generally spend the long weekend with close family and often travel. My observation is that in the US Thanksgiving and Christmas are on-par, while in Canada Christmas easily takes the cake as the bigger celebration.

I think we had somewhat of a bump from Thanksgiving, but there were also other factors that were also contributing to increasing caseload (weather, schools back in, general COVID fatigue etc.).

Ya, I agree with this. Thanksgiving and Easter here are on par where its normally close family dinners (10-15 people ect..) whereas Christmas is when my friends and family fly "home" to Toronto from Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton, Halifax ect.. and its the typical US thanksgiving feel where we see distant family, head to a bar to catch up with old friends ect.. 

Thanksgiving though is pretty engrained in Ontario (cant speak for other provinces) where there's town fall fairs, closing up the cottage, family time. 

That all said Christmas for Canada is going to be a mess I think. Most of my friends didn't even really comment on US thanksgiving being crazy as they themselves have already booked tickets home for Christmas and some in Ontario have booked ski trips out to Alberta ect.. Lots of travel I think is going to happen in Canada. 

1 minute ago, madwx said:

I agree.  A super clipper would probably leave Iowa high and dry and a gulf low or panhandle hook would either leave Minneapolis in the ice box or give rain to ohio

someone would be left out but mid winter gives the best chance for them. seen it a few times where a strong Alberta clippers gives 4-7" across the upper midwest and a gulf low starts coming north around the same time. 

34 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Havent you already had a winter storm ?

haha ya, Im not sure if he means one of those classic winter storm watches from Missouri-to WNY and Southern Ontario with a dry powdery 6-10". Ive had one mediocre 3" slop followed by rain (when YYZ recorded 8") and just now had a 6" heavy wet snow from the recent system. I classify it as a winter storm since it now looks like deep winter outside even if it took 24 hours for 6" of snow to fall. 

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Getting a little lake enhancement here. Moderate snow

This won't make up for missing a lot of the storm but it's a nice consolation prize. Im thinking most of WNY wakes up with 2-5" of snow on the ground which judging from your seasonal total so far easily doubles it. 

2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Snow continues to fall here at the lakeshore in Hamburg but really having a rough time accumulating. Checking my Nest Cam at home in Amherst it’s snowing steadily but there’s actually less snow now than there was a few hours ago as temps are just above freezing around 33 degrees. Without elevation we’re going to struggle to accumulate until the sun goes down or we can get some heavier rates this afternoon. Whole different ball game as you get above 900-1000 feet as temps drop just below freezing. 

Ya, the same thing is happening up here even with elevation. Im thinking some of the heavier bands today and tonight push you guys to 3" with a few lollipops of 4-5". Considering 1-2" was all that was talked about for the Buffalo-Niagara Metro Id say its an okay event 

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Winter wonderland outside. Haven't measured yet but definitely over 2" and coming down heavily. Cue Dino's Let it snow. 

For the Lakeshore GTA and Niagara/Hamilton this will be our first legitimate snowfall even though it takes 24 hours haha. Looks to be widespread 4-6" with isolated 8" pockets possible up on the escarpment. Im already at 4" with another 12+ hours of light snow. Last weekends storm I ended with around 3" followed by rain which washed away a lot of it, so this one is a bigger event for those that missed last weekends. 

42 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Most guidance has KBUF at 2-3”. I’ve had about 1.3” so far and I believe that with he low pulling away the better moisture on the backside this evening and overnight will be enhanced and help snowfall rates. 

At least for the GTA this will end up being a slow system but still will leave the region 4-8". I think Buffalo-Niagara has a chance to make this an okay 3-5" system as well. 

Not the way everyone would like but it will certainly make it feel like winter. We were flirting with upper 70s and 80s not even a month ago. 

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z UK is a progressive dud.

sign me up for this haha. 3-6" in my neck of the woods 

34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Agreed 1-3" max for anyone lower than 1k feet. 

I guess this is where the northern Niagara and Hamilton region will rejoice a bit. Id rather 1-3" instead of a monster cutter that gives me nothing but cool windy days haha. The next weekend storm means nothing for us in the Niagara region so our best chance at snow is with Monday-Tuesday system. 

Assuming there's no big SW LES The Buffalo-Hamilton corridor could end up being missed by two snowstorms within two weeks with people on either side of this 100ish mile zone getting some decent snow 

50 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Looking like a rainer. No real Arctic air and late phase. 

Happy that you guys in most of the GTA snuck in that legit snowstorm. Poor lakeshore and Hamilton/Niagara haha. 

Since I only got 3" followed by rain my expectations are still very low haha. Im still content with 2-4" and would classify that as a big win for my backyard. 

At this point considering we're slowly getting into range. Id enjoy a nice 3-6" snowfall. The immediate GTA and Niagara/Buffalo need an extra little shove east by about 75-100 miles lol. 

Ohio is looking good and most of the state has wiggle room now 

Just now, blizzardof96 said:

For those curious, these are the >3” probs from the other two ensemble suites.

12z GEFS

12z GEPS

I haven't seen you post in a while. Congrats on the job at the weather network. Someone get this man a met tag haha. 

At least we have something to watch but the GTA will need to thread the needle big time to see this pattern produce a winter storm (The southern GTA and Niagara. Other parts have already seen a snowstorm) 

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yowzer. This would be an inland runner. It’d go west of this if you ask me (I know, nobody asked lol).  A track up into CNY is climatologically pretty rare for an A.  It’ll probably go up the coast or into Michigan. Now we hope for an eastward trend. 
Fun to watch for sure!!

Solid cartoon of A vs B. I’m not sure why everyone found it so funny? Simplistic? I guess. But pretty accurate. The Bs almost always give WNY a front end thump followed by rapid redevelopment just S of NYC and the fun begins for ENY while we warm and drizzle. A’s are usually good for CNY and ENY. The big ones can get WNY in on the action (Storm of the Century 93). 
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I’m so glad to be back having fun watching this stuff! 

That type of track (CNY) is perfect for Immediate Buffalo-Youngstown and Niagara/GTA. Too far west and were mostly rain and East well its Rochester-CNY storm with Buffalo-Niagara normally still getting decent 3-6/4-8 but not the big amounts. GTA in the east version literally comes down to miles, 20-30 miles more west and we can salvage 2-4" 20-30 miles closer to coast and its just cloudy. 

2 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

None of that happens in weeks.  It took me 4+ months to get halfway where I wanted to be, which was to lose 10 lbs.  this was from fasting and changing what I eat. 
 

Admittedly, knowing that covid outcomes were worse off when your health is bad helped to make me stop procrastinating and make time.
 

That and changing my supplement regime helped as well. 5,000 IUI of Vitamin D as an example.  Something like that can’t hurt.  

Its great that you've lost the weight. I find the fasting part interesting when looking into healthier lifestyle a few years back, but for the large part of the population, me included its nearly impossible for me to go long periods of time without food. difference is food choice like you mentioned. Instead of bag of chips its an apple and banana. Instead of 2 sandwiches its one with a bag of carrots ect.. Everyone takes diets and tweaks them a bit and its wonderful you've been able to lose your weight with yours. Its no easy task and I congratulate you on that. 

lol at the people coming in here talking about going from obese/overweight to normal weight in a few weeks. On average you should only lose 1-2 pounds a week (it will be more at the beginning) you will plateau numerous times and almost want to give up. I also say this as someone that runs 10km a day and counted calories and switched my diet around and workout regiment around to kick start during the plateaus. The fad fasting, extreme weight loss is BS and doesn't work for 99% of the population. I went from being 6'2 235 pounds two years ago to 195 pounds today. The big reason for the weight staying off and down is because I didn't do the BS ive seen thrown around in here. Slow and steady over years not weeks/months. 

Not disagreeing about health and lifestyle choices playing a bigger role in the outcome. Just saying this informercial garbage ive heard in the last few pages about weight loss is straight up overnight tv information. And I recommend no one makes lifestyle choices on those late night informercials haha 

5 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I just looked this up to make certain it was correct...Youngstown NY to Toronto across Lake Ontario is 33 miles. That’s all the furthest point of the Niagara frontier missed out on a half foot plus snows and roughly 60 miles from the metro. Perspective.

I got lucky up here on the escarpment in Hamilton that I got about 3". Downtown Toronto along the lakeshore only received 1cm or about 0.5" while only 5 miles up Yonge street away from the lake received 4-8". I think Lake Erie does the same thing to Downtown Buffalo occasionally, especially early season marginal LES events. 

16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Got out of my house today after a week since I had my wisdom teeth out. Took a couple shots of the snow just north of my house.

YYZ is reporting 5.2" as of 4pm. I just measured 6.5" and it's been coming down steadily. Going to make a run for 8" if not more at this rate. What a freaking surprise storm. Let it snow. 

Very interesting system and typical November snowstorm. Elevation and distance from Lake making a big difference. Finished with 7cm out here on Hamilton Mountain and its now turned to light rain. Right along Lake Erie had a slushy 1-3cm and the weather network said some right along the Lake Ontario shore in Burlington-Mississauga are reporting the same (1-3cm) 

39 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

oh wow. That's way worse than here (26"). Just curious why you think it will be THAT bad...that has to be rare for Toronto.

Ideally its not that bad like 2011-2012 but being in the eastern Great Lakes we have even less room in moderate La Ninas compared to the rest of this subforum. Buffalo and Syracuse get lucky because of Lake Effect helping them at least see snow. In those moderate-Strong La Ninas Toronto tends to mimic Boston and Pittsburgh instead of central and western Great Lakes.

Now this is the banter and for all I know there is one big dog that's going to pop in between these warm spells and drop a foot of snow and ill have to eat these words haha.  

12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I have no idea how people are already calling off winter on November 17th...What exactly is this based on?  Some lousy teleconnections for the next 4 weeks (which still doesnt even get us into the actual calendar start of winter)??  Aside from one really warm week in November, things are right on track in regards to a typical year.  I think I'm -1.5" in the snowfall dept according to climatology.    

For my area (where we get very little meaningful lake effect), I look forward to February and March; the big months for Synoptic whoppers.  We haven't even got to the starting line yet and people are writing off this winter.  Weird wild stuff indeed, get a grip everyone..

I think its all preference. Last year seemed like a bad winter but for me it was fine, started off fast with November snowstorms and cold, and then off again/on again threading the needle and ending up with around 48" of snow. Id rather that instead of losing November-January to tiny nothing events surrounded by warmth and then getting 3-4  6" storms in February. 

2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Theres always this, then one massive event changes the narrative. 

Thats the problem with the GTA we can't hope for a big LES outbreak. Our bread and butter is clippers followed by big dogs riding up the apps. If those two disappear were in a lot of trouble haha. I took a peak at 2011-2012 and you guys still did well in my books but must have felt like a big snow drought for your regions. Toronto saw 16" that entire winter. KBUF registered 20" in January alone haha 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What was the total snowfall in 2011-12 there? I always find it strange that every year when a mild pattern is showing up some start fearing 2011-12 lol. I actually don't fully disagree with you, I think its going to be a roller coaster of ups and downs, but I will be shocked if a stormy nina fails to materialize and snowfall ends up as bad as you fear 

about 16" fell that winter with January being the biggest month with 6.4" 2nd place was February with 4.2" and 3rd was December with 3". Then November, March, April all had just under 1"