snowstormcanuck

Actually, almost exactly the same latitude as Madison. We jut out on a peninsula in the SE part of the country. We're Canada's Miami.

Got some pawpaw seeds in my fridge undergoing cold stratification. Can't wait for spring to finally get to plant them

"NW trend" was a big thing from the late 90s to about then. As I recall, it was frequently mentioned in AFDs by mets, so it's not just some weenie thing.

Assuming Wednesday's storm pans out and we cross the 50" line for the season, as a preliminary grade it'd be hard to go below a B. No monster storms (which is 8-10"+ here) but a handful of solid moderate events, lots of smaller but shovel-able events, occasional periods of snow cover. Very little frustration; except for that one event in late January everything worked-out according to plan or ended up being a slight surprise on the pleasant side of things. In fact, that's a grade on a curve relative to other winters. If you look at 19-20 in isolation, given the overall warmth, the snow that's still managed to be produced, you'd have to give this winter an A for effort.

6z runs nudged east again. Best snow, shockingly, now even east of Toronto on the GFS and RGEM for eg. I'm still betting on a last-minute slight westward correction, which I thought was going to hurt us with mixing, but now may actually help us. I'll revise my previous bittercasting "final" call with 4-8".

Thanks. Believe me, I know what it's like to be sucker punched by the models. Next one is yours.

It would have to be a massive collapse to the SE for us to get whiffed. Really it's been the NCEP guidance, and to a lesser extend the GEM/EURO, correcting to what the UKIE has shown all along (which has been a decent hit for us). Honestly, like I previously implied, I'd be more worried about a bit of a correction back to the NW giving us mixing issues than a Harrisburg special.

NAM verbatim = biggest storm of the winter for Toronto. We have more wiggle room with further SE shifts than with a NW bump, so it's fortunate that's the trend.

It feels like two tens counterfeited on the river.

At least, at this point, it looks like we'll get something wintry. I'd say the range is 2-4" if we transition to rain/PL for an extended period to ~10" of cement if we can stay all snow and avoiding any major slotting issues. Reality will likely be somewhere in the middle.

Well, I'm sure UMB WX has been taught a lesson and won't do it again.

lol @ pouting over a snow climo jab.

i can dig it. Seeing where we were, i doubt anyone will be complaining.

Cool. Worse ways to spend 3 hours.

Only this winter could two back-to-back 50 degree days be followed by a warning criteria snowfall.

Obviously trends are very encouraging for mby but I'd be wary of a last minute bump NW. Ul trough is very dynamic and there's a lot of jet energy digging into its base which might allow for a bit more amplification than modeled.

6z NAM is a money run. Lock it in and throw away the key.

Trends the last 12 -18 hours have been good but still a lot of work to be done.

People crap on the ICON but just anecdotally I don't think it's been half bad.

I'd settle for 50 mi SE of the 18z NAM. Not perfect but in the game.

A few sloppy inches on the front end then drizzle/slot. Final call.

If you're ORD/MKE you gotta like your chances. Seems regardless of the model the snow swaths intersect in your backyard.

GGEM likes the stronger, second low. Haven't seen any snowfall maps but looks like a nice hit from ORD through NW IN and most of lower MI.

It's not just the northern route. It's completely handling the evolution of the long wave trough differently, putting more emphasis on the lead rather than the trailing wave, compared to EURO for eg. Maybe the stronger secondary system will end up coming to fruition but I think the GFS solution is plausible.

Bombs spell trouble here. Gotta factor in the Apps mountain dead-zone. Only way to make it work is with some antecedent cold air, which is absent. Prelim call = mostly rain.