IUsedToHateCold

Ukie is on an island. That said, models didn't clue into the exact track and strength of the December storm until 2-3 days out, so I would think there is no reason to give up on it. On to 18z

Hit 68 here today, exceeded the forecast high of 63. Was a great day to mow the lawn and rake leaves. I got to do it in shorts.

BWI 11.5" DCA: 5.5" IAD: 14.25" RIC: 1.5" SBY: 2.5"

Interesting as well are the small cold SST anomalies that have recently popped between Newfoundland and the UK. Someone with more knowledge than me probably knows why that is (winds causing upwelling or something). A lot of -NAO years I have looked at had cold SSTs off the coast of Newfoundland, albeit much stronger than what we see now.

Has anyone ever done correlation analysis between conditions in October/November and the resultant NAO state during DJF? I'm sure it's been done, and I'd be interested in reading if anyone has a link. It's hard to just cancel winter when there is some off-chance that we do have -NAO. While it has only occurred few times in the past 20 years, it's not theoretically impossible, right? It even happened during a Nina in 2010-2011.

It seems that in the past several years the ENSO state predictions in October didn't really pan out. I remember a lot of predictions for an El Nino and a great winter last year - we all know how that turned out. The other lesson from recent years is that the Pac seems to have a lot of influence. I suppose we will see if it just pumps warm air in all winter or if we have a decent shot at some cold and snow. Regardless, I suspect November will be colder than average, as it always seems to be, with a warmup in December. After that? Who knows.

Seems like the models have locked this in, so congrats to everyone. My Mom in Black Mountain looks to get crushed. I lived in NC for many years and if I was southeast of that diagonal from Charlotte to east of Raleigh I'd be wary of that mix line and the slight tick north these things seem to take at the last minute. When I lived in Charlotte it often rained south of the city while the north would get snow.