IUsedToHateCold

Hit 68 here today, exceeded the forecast high of 63. Was a great day to mow the lawn and rake leaves. I got to do it in shorts.

Yes, driving from Bowie to Annapolis can be fun in the winter. I've seen huge weather differences (temps 10+ degrees warmer/colder, significant more/less snow), etc..

I think surface temps are OK to start, but if the low track is too far west there will be mixing issues in the middle.

I highly doubt the models are wrong here and this is coming much farther north than Fredericksburg, but I'll take a pleasant surprise.

BWI 11.5" DCA: 5.5" IAD: 14.25" RIC: 1.5" SBY: 2.5"

Interesting as well are the small cold SST anomalies that have recently popped between Newfoundland and the UK. Someone with more knowledge than me probably knows why that is (winds causing upwelling or something). A lot of -NAO years I have looked at had cold SSTs off the coast of Newfoundland, albeit much stronger than what we see now.

Has anyone ever done correlation analysis between conditions in October/November and the resultant NAO state during DJF? I'm sure it's been done, and I'd be interested in reading if anyone has a link. It's hard to just cancel winter when there is some off-chance that we do have -NAO. While it has only occurred few times in the past 20 years, it's not theoretically impossible, right? It even happened during a Nina in 2010-2011.

It seems that in the past several years the ENSO state predictions in October didn't really pan out. I remember a lot of predictions for an El Nino and a great winter last year - we all know how that turned out. The other lesson from recent years is that the Pac seems to have a lot of influence. I suppose we will see if it just pumps warm air in all winter or if we have a decent shot at some cold and snow. Regardless, I suspect November will be colder than average, as it always seems to be, with a warmup in December. After that? Who knows.

Measured 10" in my yard as a final total, not bad at all.

Measured 9" have fallen, 8" on the ground. Still snowing pretty decently.

Dime to quarter size fatties, absolutely incredible haven’t seen something like this since 2016

The yellow band delivers. Was tiny flakes at first now flake size has increased. Roads and sidewalks covered again.

It’s definitely started again here, big flakes

Just measured 6", starting to see some bigger flakes mix in/nicer rates. Everything I get from this point is gravy - it looks like winter and I'm happy with that.

Yeah I think I will be alright this time. Models don’t show a flip for me but it’s closer than I thought.

Correlation coefficient radar shows the sleet line has gotten north of Richmond, hopefully it stays south of most of us .

Good stuff coming down, measured 2.5 inches earlier probably close to 3 now. Let's keep this heavy band going all night.

SN coming down nicely, road and sidewalk starting to cave.

Legit light snow starting, first flakes accumulating on the fence outside

First light flurries here in Bowie car thermometer has 34. Looks like it’s spreading east fast

Seems like the models have locked this in, so congrats to everyone. My Mom in Black Mountain looks to get crushed. I lived in NC for many years and if I was southeast of that diagonal from Charlotte to east of Raleigh I'd be wary of that mix line and the slight tick north these things seem to take at the last minute. When I lived in Charlotte it often rained south of the city while the north would get snow.