FPizz

56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what does your ideal pattern look like? there is troughing showing up over the N ATL that will encourage confluence, it's not like there's a WAR or a massive ridge over Nova Scotia

People just want things to look absolutely perfect and stay that way for weeks one end.  Can't win.  

-0.3

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

No one disagrees about the historic warmth (well except the deniers who cant handle their snow being taken away). But the ski area discussion hold pertinent to our subforum for the same reasons you just stated. Not to mention that its noteworthy considering their last few seasons and the struggles they have had. Tie that into many people not understanding where our subforum actually encompasses and having been implied or flat out told my obs dont matter, it becomes a bigger narrative and issue. 

Many different microclimates in the subforum.  But if we stay as a whole slightly above normal here for a few days then transistion to eventually bellow normal and the rest of usa is +30, many don't care one bit.  Go post it a general thread. 

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Can't we just guess? All in good faith, of course. 

Reconstructed data is pretty much that....

Station got to 9.8 last night 

4 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

4" at my house

Wow awesome!  88 in Aruba. 

@Poker2015 I'm away.  Camera looks like 2-3"?

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Been waiting for the January pattern since 23 

you didn't have a good feb last year?  20.5" that month here

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

MJO forecasts seemingly stalled the wave yesterday, but progression on most modeling is back to moving the wave into 7 and maybe 8. 

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

But looking back at some of the MJO forecasts I downloaded in November, we should have been in Phase 7 by today! Lol

Thanks for saying this.  As I said, they constantly get posted but never checked on.  I thought that was the case too going back to plots that were posted weeks ago.

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Below is today’s bc GEFS MJO forecast. What are folks’ opinions about this?

Before answering that, consider these seven examples of a temporary stall/reversal of direction over just the last 6 winters:

2024: look at the circling in phase 7 back into phase 6 last Feb:

2023: circled late Feb from phase 7 to edge of phase 6:

2022: reversed in phase 7 Jan 1-5:

2021: struggled to get going in Dec near phase 6-7 border:

2021: stalled/reversed in phase 6 for 10 days late Jan and then stalled early to mid Feb in phase 7:

2020: Massive very long reversal/stall late Jan through mid Feb from phase 7 to phase 5 and then finally back to phase 6 but then back again to phase 5!!

2019: early Feb phase 7 stall/reversal into phase 6:

Looking at the date it does it on the plot, who cares.  Its all fantasy range.  These plots gets posted all the time and no one ever looks back to see how they did.  I get the "history" is right on the map itself, but no one ever compares today to what was day 15 on 12/1 and how they actually did.  

Windier today than yesterday here.  Gusts into the low 30s

1.27"

1 hour ago, Poker2015 said:

We better get some heavier stuff later or it will be tough to even get to 1"

Squall line to our west now

Just now, Snowstorms said:

Off topic, but is NYC worth visiting pre Christmas or is that all just movie/social media hype? And why are hotels in Manhattan so expensive rn. 

 

It's super crowded and not worth it.  Take a trip to Peddlers Village instead.

21 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

no disrespect man but @bluewavehas a wealth of knowledge to share and i would not say his responses are cherry picked

You can have a wealth of knowledge while also cherry picking and having a bias.  

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

ECM says welcome to the worst December weather since 1988.
Cold & dry, rain, Cold & dry, rain, rain, Cold & dry, rain...

Happens in many Decembers it seems. 

18 this morning

17.4.  

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

MJO forecasting is like trying to predict who Juan Soto will sign with and the contract figures. Models are not capable, but my wag is that a neutral is even harder for them with no sustained established enso signal i.e. Niño or Niña.

Another model

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

But with a neutral Enso, Phase 5 looks like this.

How accurate are those MJO plots past 10 days?  They are constantly posted, but the days talked about on them are always day 12++ and people act like they are always accurate, why is that?  Aren't those plots based on similar guidance that once you reach that far out in time have an accuracy rate of Rick Ankiel trying throw a strike?

2 hours ago, BlizzLuv said:

Just heard thunder. Seemed odd, I have not heard that much in the past months.

I heard that as well here.  .12" total rain

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lol...like I said, ingrained. 

 

It can be -10 in Morristown NJ, but we'll get a post on how in 1925 it would have been -13, while at the same Newark NJ is 45 and why that is right and their temps are perfect.

Burst of mod snow the past 45 minutes here.  Dusting on all cold surfaces 

Just saw a few flakes mixing in here.  

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They were comparable snow totals for me.

Down this way 18-19 had 27", 19-20 had 7"

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

@bluewave Chris, If NYC were to get accumulating snow at the end of Nov like this Euro op run shows, would it count toward the Dec snowfall total as regards your Dec SN indicator for the remainder of winter? I know getting over 3” in Dec is what you were keying on.

I've kept my own records since 87/88 and since then Novembers with an inch of snow+ have gone on to have 1 below average, 3 around average and 2 above average winters for my area.  So odds seem to be slightly above average winter snow wise down this way.