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Everything posted by tamarack
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Here it's been mild mornings and mild cloudy or partly cloudy afternoons. Temp is running +1.1 thru yesterday, but -1 for maxima (and +3 for minima.) Mildest has been 54, same as last month's highest and 60s seem out of the question for the next 10 days at least. At least the precipitation has come in discrete events rather than days and days of mank and muck - 3 storms for 4.66", over 250% of average MTD.
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According to the news, CMP had 260k customers out at one point, and still 58k this morning (not us, fortunately - lights came on 3:30 yesterday afternoon.) There were/are 100 CMP line crews plus 439 contracted from out of state and 122 tree service crews on the job. Fortunately the outages were Maine-centered, not all of the Northeast like Jan 1998. Edit, for PF: Looks like that snow is stuck to the N/NW side of the trees, hiding from the spring sun.
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"Some" people - my lament was for big April snow forecasts that didn't verify, or verified to the south. Of course, the snowblower gas tank is nearly empty. The machine was running on fumes when I finished up the 3/24 dump, and not (then) seeing anything significant coming up, I didn't want to fill the tank only to have to drain it before putting it away later in the month. Anything under 8" this time of year doesn't warrant using the blower, the trade-off being a few hours of waiting compared to hurling more driveway material onto the lawn.
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Getting close enough to almost be real. April storm forecasts 3-4 days out have been fails in recent years - 2016 and 2017.1 slipped south - and even WS warned storms have underperformed here - 2017.2 and last April. GYX's 90%/expected/10% last evening for Farmington was <1"/4"/14", crazy wide range though understandable for a tightrope April event. This morning it's 4"/10"/15" and spots in the western mts have significant (>10%) odds of 18"+. Could get interesting, could miss by 1°C or a few mb less strengthening and be a total slopfest under 1000'.
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They've not done all that great this snow season. Both are significantly BN and haven't gotten any storms near to what parts of SNE had in early DEC. Rangeley's biggest is 10" and while Jackman got 13 from that same end of Feb event, they had a near whiff on the Mar 23-24 storm, 1.4" while the foothills were +/-10". A later bombo might leave them short on qpf and jack the hills of northern Washington County (and NB.)
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Not impossible that it could dump similar snowfall in places, but as the maps posted by ma blizzard show, a totally different animal. Instead of the usual wet April snow like this one will be (at best), 1982 was midwinter powder. From NYC, which has nothing else like it in their 151 Aprils, up thru CAR, that storm had a degree of anomaly that I would put behind only 9/38, 6/53 and the Octobomb for New England events. (Also the greatest positive bust I ever expect to witness. )
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A few miles farther east might be preferable this late in the season. Also, the Euro slp map you posted puts the center closer to Isles of Shoals, which would probably mean a howling flooding 35° northeaster for my area. how close are you to average? 8" below. Here it's 17" under, and only one April of my 22 here has topped that amount. (2007, which dumped more than double!)
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In the 8 Aprils since the 4/1/11 dump, our area has had that kind of forecast 4-5 times without any reaching even 4", so seeing would be believing. Ice is out early up here on two of the lakes I fish, Guess I’ll have to wait to see what happens late week, Was planning to go this weekend. Long Pond in Belgrade is about 2/3 clear with only the N and S coves remaining, and the ice there is all black and probably won't survive today's sunny 50s. The near-2" RA followed by Sat-Sun 50s took a 10" pack down to "trace" by last evening, ending the run of 1"+ at 146 days, not bad for a warm winter with 20% BN snowfall. Getting 20+ days in November helps.
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I'm about 30' lower than the Farmington co-op, but we're in the woods. Our "lawn" covers perhaps 1/20 acre with 50-70' trees to the SE and SW, though most are deciduous. Cold air drains down from the SW-facing field across the road and stops at our place, other than what can filter into the woods. It's about perfect for retention, given the modest elevation. Only 3" left this morning as nearly 2" RA took most away. If you reach Farmington via Route 27 from Augusta, the real snow catcher is Mile Hill - road gets a bit over 800' along the "plateau", which is on gently east facing slope. The town/county sign is about 2/3 of the way up the south side of the hill. (It's named for the length of the north-facing hill, which drops about 300' in that mile.) If you check out cocorahs, look for the obs from Temple, especially in borderline snow events. That observer is at 1,224', which can result in some interesting reports. In the late Feb mashed potato mess of 2010, the Farmington co-op had 8.8" and Temple 26.4", only about 6 miles away. (And 800' higher) Edit: Yesterday morning I reported 7" to cocorahs. The Temple observer had 18" - not surprising.
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Kennebec flood warning posted at Skowhegan, though the forecast peak is only 101% of flood flow. I guess if it rings the bell the warning gets posted, whether the overage is 400 cfs (like now) or 40,000. If it crests at 35.4 up there, it's unlikely to reach flood stage in Augusta as the heaviest rain was on drainages north and west of Skowhegan.
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March snowfall here (15.5") was below the mean of 17.5" but above the median of 14.9" - getting 55.5" in 3/01 skews the average a bit. Ground's been white from 11/11 onward but with only 7" this morning it's only got a few more days. Current consecutive run is 145 days, and amazingly given the quality of this winter, that trails only last winter and is 4th for total 1"+ days. We'll pass 2002-03 (another low-snow winter, but due to suppression) on Sunday and would tie 2014-15 at 150 if the cover survives until Wednesday evening - I think not. SDDs are well below both average and median, same as 02-03 though we're a bit higher than that winter.
