tamarack

'Fraid so - previous flake tardiness record was 11/21/04. That winter had no snowfalls greater than 3.4" thru Feb 9, after which we had 60" in 31 days, finishing with 94", 5" AN.

Where I grew up in NNJ is at 700, probably a couple inches there. Had 0.39" thru 7 AM, about ~0.2" since. Still haven't seen a flake this season.

At 1,800' asl. My NNJ HS (Butler) had a 2-hour delay this morning, probably about 2" there. I've yet to see a flake. Weird wx is fun.

And before here in the Maine foothills? Latest I've had to wait for the season's first flakes is today's date, so a new late start whenever one is seen. We head for SNJ this coming Tuesday and there's a chance that no flakes arrive before then. even BWI may be able to pull some minor accumulation Another 2009-10 on the way? That was the season when they got 7" more than CAR.

GYX overnight shift QPF was 1.5-2 here yesterday, 1-1.5 this morning. Daytime shifts Tues-Wed 0.5-1 both days. Models flipping? Cloudy with a raw wind and low 40s. Hoped the deer would be moving ahead of the storm. If they were, it was elsewhere.

The 2 storms in the first half of Dec 2003 totaled 37", more than half of the season's snowfall. Only one event with more than 5" in Jan-April. Jan '04 had 7 maxima between 1 and -8 but only 7.7" snow/0.57" precip. The -7 max on the 14th was recorded at 9 PM on the 13th; the afternoon max was -11.

Or November 22-23, 1943 in NNE.

Yikes! In the 1950s my mom could buy 4 cartons for that. (Unfortunately. At age 55 after 40 years of 2-3 packs/day, she was diagnosed with emphysema. She quit cold turkey but gradually lost lung function until passing at age 70. Her 2 non-smoking sisters lived into their 90s.)

The past 3 months might be drier than any 3-month period in the 1960s. However, that earlier drought lasted 4 years. NYC numbers: 1963 - 34.28" 5th lowest, only the 4.4" dump in early Nov avoided a new record. 1964 - 32.99" Lowest (at the time) by 0.73", now 2nd 1965 - 26.09" Four years later some VA sites had that much in 5 hours from the remains of Camille. 1966 - Jan-Aug 19.79", only 0.74" more than J-A '65, and considerably warmer (met summer 4.8 hotter). Sept 21, 1966: 5.54" Drought was over though we didn't know it until many months after. GYX precip map this morning shows 1.5-2" for almost all their CWA. Yesterday they were thinking 0.5-1". We'll see. We're heading to SNJ on 11/26, returning 12/3 or 4. Might see flakes there before seeing any here.

Fake cold. We had 3 sunny and calm days after a 12.4" dump. That storm was cold rain at ORH and the lows on 6-8 were 23/18/18 there, 1/-8/-8 here.

The greatest negative departures here since Feb 2023 were Dec 6-8 last year (-13/-19/-14. That said, I had to go back to 12/2018 to find more early Dec cold.

Got you beat by 0.09" Only 0.44" over the past 5 weeks, however.

Families, and there may be as many as 6 pups or more, though they usually get thinned out by fall. Multi-family packs like wolves are uncommon for coyotes. Didn't happen this year, but the usual sequence here would be hearing the pups singing soprano in May then working down to a low alto by September. This morning was 20°+ milder than yesterday's 14.

But very little since late August - many wildfires in the Northeast above Mason-Dixon.

1995-96 had 5 months, DEC-APR, with Jekyll-Hyde character. Data from Gardiner, Maine: Dates Avg Temp + or - Precip Snow 12/1-21 17.5 -5.4 3.99" 40.6" 1/1-16 8.3 -9.8 2.03" 27.5" 2/1-19 12.7 -6.3 1.17" 11.3" 3/1-11 17.5 -7.5 1.93" 24.5" 4/1-14 36.1 -3.5 2.44" 23.5" Avg/Tot 17.8 -6.4 11.56" 127.4" 81 days 12/22-31 25.6 +5.4 0.20" 2.6" 1/17-31 25.6 +6.6 4.75" 4.6" 2/20-29 34.7 +11.1 3.85" 0.0" 3/12-31 34.8 +2.4 1.06" 2.0" 4/15-30 46.6 +1.9 4.72" 0.0" Avg/Tot 34.2 +4.8 14.58" 7.6" 71 days 1995-96 produced 138.8", the most of our 13 winters in Gardiner and 30.4" more than #2 (92-93). However, 95-96 ranks only 5th for SDDs thanks to all the thaws.

From 14 to 50 here, maybe a 40-span? More cloud than blue now, so probably not.

Low of 14 here, IZG 12 and BML 9. A small cloud to our northwest, first one I've seen in 3 days. (November vies with December for the cloudiest month here.)

Depends on how it's measured. By numbers of TCs/canes/majors, which came in below the forecast. By impact, any season with a Helene and a Milton is high-end. (Reminds me of 1992, when the first named storm didn't come until August and the numbers were way low, but that #1 was Andrew.)

Currently running +4.2 here, which would be 5th mildest of 27 should November finish there - top quartile. After today the departure will be close to +3.6, for 7th mildest.

Maine, late October 1947. 200,000 acres and 15 fatalities New Jersey, late October into November 1963. The 4" splash on 11/6-8 knocked things back a lot, and the month had another 4 before the 30th. (The really big fire than year came on April 20, a windy Saturday - nearly 200,000 acres in the Pine Barrens, and ~17 homes burned in NYC [Staten Island] by a forest fire.) For folks like 'Fella and me, this is a significant but short-term drought.

About the same at our frost pocket - must not have fully decoupled. Low teens tonight?

A co-worker living several miles west from CAR had a banana plant growing in his greenhouse for 2 years, summering the thing outside. It failed to blossom so was left outside going into the 2nd winter. The lemon tree in the greenhouse was producing lots of fruit.

Only breezy here in the woods - top gusts might've reached 30. Saw a gust of 52 at Greenville, wind off Moosehead. This is the 3rd latest fall with no flakes observed here, and unless some come sailing thru this afternoon, we'll be in 2nd place (currently 11/14 in 2022.) Latest was 11/21 in 2004. Since both 2004-05 and 2022-23 had AN snow, no worries about the late start. Earliest trace was 10/4 in 1999, followed by a near-ratter.

Finally put the last of the 3/4 cord of basswood thru the stove. Now we can get some "real" cold as I'll be burning "real" firewood. Mostly cloudy, low 40s and breezy. The strong winds haven't gotten here yet.

And dews