tamarack

My hope is for some snow that the grandkids in SNJ can play in. The only accumulating snow they've seen since 2021-22 led to needing a short tow in Jay as they headed back south following an 8-day visit here.

Average temp here for Jan 24 is 25/3, so it might be AN (slightly) anyway.

That's my thinking, especially after seeing WWA colors rather than the WSW for last Wed. My area was in the 8-12 color then (final pre-storm forecast 6-10) and the 4-6 color this morning. My 9" then was lower than places just to the west, where 10-14 was the rule. Coastal flooding is the main threat this time, as astronomical tides are a foot higher tomorrow than last Wed. Looking for 4-5", with the rain maybe half the 0.84" that made the Wed stuff all but immovable.

That's my philosophy. Didn't work on 12/18 - last time I experienced 50+ gusts for 4 hours was on 12/31/62. (Doria and Bob had stronger gusts, but only for an hour or so.)

Lots of snow in 95-96, its 138.8" was tops of my 13 winters in Gardiner by 30". That trails only 2007-08 since moving from Fort Kent in 1985. However, the major thaws, especially in January, tempered my enthusiasm. Five top SDDs for Gardiner winters: 1993-94 1,993 1986-87 1,879 1989-90 1,641 1992-93 1,352 1995-96 1,290

Looks really good for an event that only brought us 3.8".

Sun came out at 11:30, after 10 minutes of calm and fog. Headed out to the catch bucket and a couple shovels of glop. Total precip: 2.18"

Latitude. We'll finish this mess with 12-13" pack and >3" SWE. We managed to reach 36" last season even though it was the warmest of 25 cold seasons (DJFM) here. I could see us going into the 20s by 1/17.

I doubt we gusted to 30 here. Isle au Haut recorded 95 mph earlier. 9" probably boosted the pack up to 17" when the p-type changed about 5 AM, now down to 14" with moderate RA and upper 30s. Most miserable stuff to move since the Late Feb mess in 2010 (10.7" of 4:1 slop plus 1.14" of mid-30s RA). I'm sure we're over 2", maybe near 2.5, and most of that is in the new snow. It was near 7:1 when it was all snow but now more like 4:1 and decreasing. I may go out a couple hours after the rain stops, and use a smaller shovel, one with <1 sq.ft. surface rather than the near 2 sq.ft. one I used at 7 AM.

I'm waiting until the rain departs and some of the water drains out of the mess. We had 9"+ by 5 AM when the precip switch was occurring, then ~0.4" RA by 7, for a total of 1.74". Classic heart attack stuff - instead of a shovel load weighing under 10 lb, this stuff is about 20. I figured that I tossed over 300 lb just clearing the 8 steps. Our relatively small driveway, perhaps 1,200 sq.ft., holds about 5 tons. ugh!

Clock is ticking for big ice - most have been within a month of the solstice. The 2 worst ice storms, by far, that I experienced both came on Jan 8-9, 1953 in NNJ and 1998 in Gardiner. Next 2 were Dec 11-12, 1970 in NNJ and 12/13-15, 1983 in Fort Kent. Those 4 are the only ones that had noticeable tree damage, though lesser ones, including 3/6-7, 1967 in NNJ, have bent the birches.

I don't think we'll gust past 40, if we even get that much - much different than 4 hours of 50+ gusts on 12/18. GYX has chopped the snowfall for here by 2" compared to that from the overnight crew, 6-10 down from 8-12, with change fully to RA by 5 AM. Six miles west the forecast is 9-14 with the change at 7. I think the 2 places will be closer together than that, but the big difference will likely come from the observer from Temple, 2 towns west but, more importantly, about 800' higher.

They're plenty sharp when green and near maturity. I needed leather gloves (which didn't always prevent getting stuck) to gather some mature nuts from a 1962 planting on a public lot. Wait a day or two and the squirrels would've dehusked all of them. Latest forecast here is 8-12 followed by 3/4-1" RA, for a juicy mess. Six miles west in Farmington, it's 10-15" plus the RA.

Average temp here on Jan 23 is 14°, so a few degrees AN doesn't preclude snow. Last January was 9° AN, easily the mildest of 25 Januarys here, and we only had 29.9" of white stuff.

My earliest wx memory. I was on our NNJ with Dad and older bro, watching the trees thrashing. When tops and limbs began flying around, Dad said it was time to go inside. Only competition for strongest wind experienced was on 12/31/62, the backside NW gales from the blizzard that ate BGR. Both gusted to near 70. Next tier is Hazel and Bob with G60+, then the April 1982 blizzard (in Fort Kent) along with 3 weeks ago, both with 50+ gusts for hours. And watching a "pure" cutter morph into a major front-end thump before changeover during the past 4 days has been entertaining. May it continue so the snow doesn't get soggified.

Just curious - which mountain? Big Moose, Coburn, the Spencers, somewhere else?

36" for LEW. 40 miles north, Farmington had 43", bringing the depth to 84". That was the state record for snowpack until 2017, when Chimney Pond (at 2,900') reached the 90s.

Unfortunately. 6-8" of increasingly wet snow topped by 1"+ RA would leave a chute-clogging mess. We had that (including the clogged chute) in Nov 2018, followed by cold, and for the next month our driveway was like driving across railroad iron.

We have 9" pack with ~1" LE and the current thoughts from GYX suggest that the first inch will be white. Thursday morning we might see about the same depth as before, but with twice the LE. Of course, if the snow was followed by 2-3" RA at 50°, everything goes downriver and we get another Dec 18, though with less wind. Highly unlikely.

5.8" from 0.47" LE, so 12.3-to-1 here, as it was all tiny flakes. 1st snowstorm this season that didn't flirt with 32° - max was 17. Snowblower likes it, even on places where we hadn't cleared the ~5" from 12/30. Wind had fun with the snow flying out the chute; my wool jacket went from Buffalo plaid to white several times.

Snow arrived about 2 AM and ended before midnight. 20 hours of mostly light snow, for 5.8" at 12:1, and daily high temp of 17. Evergreens nicely covered with blue sky above. (And the next storm has morphed per GYX from a bit of mix then deluge to 6-10" SN Tuesday before the changeover. Will probably start working back toward the earlier progs tomorrow.)

Very light snow with tiny flakes at 7 AM. 2.0" from 0.15" LE, temp mid teens. Not snowman material.

The northern fringes in Maine have some similar ranges. The Christmas night storm of 2002 dropped 18" on GYX and, 55 miles NNE, we got 1". It can happen.

12/18 had H9 winds to 90 kt. Every coastal county in the GYX CWA had gusts into the 60s, with Criehaven (Knox Cty) hitting 78 mph. Even inland, AUG reached 68. Highly doubt that 1/10 gets there.

Forecast from GYX has retreated on the most recent periods - Farmington "most likely" yesterday dropped from 5" to 4, and this morning's 3" is now 2. The range is greater than usual, with the 90%/most likely/10% being zero/2"/12". Seems to indicate continued movement from models.