tamarack

Finished with 0.5" from 0.07" LE. Barring a surprise between now and March 1, this will be the least snowy of 26 Februarys here.

2005-06 was a pretty low floor, with almost no snow after Jan 31. Among 389 met winter months at the Farmington co-op, only Dec 1999 had less snow than the 1.1" of Feb 06.

Seems like your NJ locale is in the north part. I saw some FB pics a couple days back from where I grew up in northern Morris County, and the snow cover looked about like that 3". Also, the lake where I usually fished was wide open. I don't think the red ball flag (denoting safe ice) was ever flown this year. We may have a 20° AN day by mid week. Wednesday's average here is 32/9 and 48/35 is a possibility.

Fighting to reach 1/4" here.

Last 9 days have averaged 28/7 with maxima ranging from 21 to 32. We took advantage of the seasonal temps with a qpf total of 0.07". Feb precip is currently 0.44", with 80% of that in the strongest Feb TS I can recall. Current lowest Feb precip is 1.04", so a new low is a given. If we stay below the 0.57" of Jan 2004, only the 0.31" of April 1999 will be drier than this month.

GYX gives us a 10% chance to reach 1". Feb snow is currently 0.8" below 2/2006, our least snowy Feb - let's go for the record! After 3 subzero minima in the past 4 days, it may not have gone below 20 this morning, nice mild launchpad for the next "storm".

That's their greatest calendar day snowfall. March 3-5, 1960 dumped 17.7" there, 8th greatest overall.

12 pages with less than 3 days 'till go time doesn't seem excessive. Thurs-Fri may be a small oasis, may be a mirage, but everything else is dry sand so folks post. Sadly, the only rep for the eastern half of Maine is Vim Toot. Only one for the north half, too, though The Mainer is close.

We touched -12 in January. If that holds for winter's coldest (probably about a 99% chance it will), it will tie 01-02 for the 2nd most modest, 2° colder than the -10 in 05-06, and will be the 6th of 26 winters failing to reach -20 or colder.

I looked at the long-term (began Jan 1893) record at the Farmington co-op, which sadly went offline in October 2022 when the 55-years (late) observer's health declined and no one picked up the torch. Quite similar - 6-of-10 lower during the past 50 and only 3 of the highest 10. (Their snowiest for any month, Feb 1969, missed the cut by 4 years.)

CC is also increasing variability. How many of the 10 most snowy Februarys came in the last 50?

Not far enough - like PD1, we whiffed, continuing the run of storms (Jan 4 excepted) that stayed south that winter.

2.5" in Feb with only 0.09" LE, plus 0.35" in the 2/10 TS. Only need an inch to pass 2/06 and escape last place. (2005-06 had 45.0" thru Jan 31 and only 7.8" after. Then the next winter had 19.1" thru Jan 31 and 76.2" after. Combine the 2 winters and things look close to average. )

Near -5 this morning, BML hit -13.

I think those are valid met terms that the ever-hyping media has grabbed.

Just a flurry here, had 3-4 minutes of nice feathers plus 10 minutes of little'uns for 0.1". We've had only 2 warned storms so far, which if that's final number would tie 15-16 for fewest since I began tracking WSWs in 06-07 and the only winter with fewer than 4. Median number is 6. We're at nearly 95% of average for season-to-date, but short on the big'uns.

And 66 was running neck and neck with 65 thru met summer - NYC's driest JJA and 2nd hottest. Then 9/21 had 5"+ and precip returned to average or more. Driest February here (1999-forward) is 1.04". Might be endangered.

QPF was below the .15-.25 noted in AFDs. The fluff factor mitigated that a bit - the meager 0.07" here produced 2.1". The last 2-4" forecast (Jan 29) had the same 0.07" but only 1/2".

2.1" thanks to 30:1 ratio. Most fell in the 2 hours prior to sunrise. First big gust will be a 30-second blizzard. Season total passes 2005-06 and 2020-21, so now only the 4th lowest. (Only 3.2" under the average total thru 2/16, however.)

PWM: 103 BGR: 102 BHB: 100, next to the chilly sea.

That's some "clipper" that dumps 6"+ from Michigan to Maine, where it might still be snowing at 1 PM EST. Lmao…just like Al Gore…when he said we wouldn’t see anymore snow anywhere in New England by 2015. And it just happened to be the snowiest in New England since we’ve been keeping records. Another moron that was spewing nonsense. And That ridiculous comment will be no different. I recommend adding "Southern" in front of the bolded, as most of NNE did significally better in 2007-08 than 14-15.

1995-96 was a great snow year but the weather whipsawed back and forth from Dec 1 thru April 14, at which time spring arrived. Though its 138.8" was 2nd only to 2007-08 (142.3") since we moved from Fort Kent in 1985, it ranked only 5th of 13 winters in Gardiner despite having 30" more than any other of those 13. The good periods, 12/1-21; 1/1-16; 1/29-2/19; 2/29-3/10 and 3/27-4/14. Those 88 days had temps 5.4 BN, 11.83" precip and 130.5" snow. The intervening blecch: 12/22-31; 1/17-28; 2/20-28 and 3/11-26. 47 days that ran +7.2 with 9.59" precip and 6.1" snow.

We went 24 days thru the middle of Dec with just 0.1" snow (and a boatload of rain), then had 30" in 5 storms over the next 18 days. So far this month we've had a one-hour flurry on 2/1 plus some catpaws in Saturday's TS. Would be nice to break this snow drought like it did in January.

11.6 AN here. Jan 23 on, +10.8 with minima +14.2; not bad for 3 weeks in midwinter. It's snowed about 1 hour in the past 2 weeks, the flurry on 2/1. (The catpaws in Saturday's TS don't count.) Pack hanging in at 14".

Yes! Just gray skies here, as forecast. Nice to see some good stuff to the south.