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Everything posted by tamarack
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Glad to help. Probably too fine distinctions for a broad-based map, but there are some mesoscale differences: the NNE mountains seem to generate more TS than flatter regions, and the coastal areas east of Penobscot Bay are graveyards for convection. Small sample size, but I found it odd that my Fort Kent experience included fewer storms but more severe ones. The northern 25% of Maine seems to have more than its share of damaging storms. On September 30, 1986, straight-line winds caused a 600-acre blowdown which ended by toppling trees into Square Lake. The same townships (T16R6 and T16R5) had several blowdown patches, the largest 70 acres, in 2005. Six years later an EF-0 damaged buildings in the town of Eagle Lake then became straight-line winds that flattened about 200 acres near the north shore of Eagle Lake itself. 2012-13 saw EF-0/1s in Oxbow and near Long Lake (the Aroostook Long Lake) and destroyed several hundred acres in the northern part of Baxter Park. And of course, the biggest ones of all were near Katahdin during the 1970s. 12-15" of pasty November snow plus wind flattened about 3,000 acres south of the mountain in 1974 (and 3 years later fire burned most of that area of well-seasoned jackstraws.) Then in 1979 an October storm tipped over another 3,000 acres of spruce-fir a dozen or so miles NW of the 1974 event - from the air that later event looked like lodged oats after an August downpour. -
That would put NNE within reach of July 1911.
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
For the 3 places in Maine with more than 3 years record: Fort Kent: 9.8 yr, Avg 12.2/yr Most: 17, Least 6. Top month: July, 3.8. Least: Feb, Dec, zero Had 4 SVR (Hail/wind) and 2 near SVR Gardiner: 12.6 yr, Avg 13.0/yr Most: 22, Least 7. Top month: June, 3.3. Least: Jan, zero Maybe 2 near SVR (lightning/RA) as the strongest would miss. Tornado in the next town. New Sharon: 24.2 yr, avg 15.0/yr Most: 23, Least 8. Top month: July, 4.5. Least: Novie, zero. (July 2022, one so far, not included.) 2 near SVR (Wind/RA). Defoliating hail 8/30/07 only 6-8 miles to SE. We moved from Gardiner to New Sharon in mid-May 1998, and recorded thunder days in each place. Thus, May 1998 is counted as part of both places. My 3 years in BGR are omitted, both for small sample size and because of being away for much of summers 1974 (Forestry summer camp, 6 weeks) and 1975 (field research all summer). -
Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
On one of our visits to DEC (July 2011) we had grandstand seats for 15 minutes of perhaps 100/minute strikes, looked like all CG. The storm was 5+ miles to our south, and the thunder came as a drum roll rather than individual booms/rumbles. Even the local folks were impressed. We got our share 3-4 hours later, garden variety lightning but 3" RA in 2 hours. With tor warnings in SNH and S. Maine, still haven't heard if funnels reached the ground. -
40C in London is probably about the equivalent of 120F (at least) in OKC. Nice 1.32" drink for the garden. More just to my west but no complaints, here it was a farmer's RA, some moderate, even very short hveay, but no soil movement. The 2 cocorahs observers in the NW part of Farmington reported 2.56" and 2.36", and one town farther west (Temple) had 2.48". Those totals ranked 2/3/4 for the state, but #1 - 4.63" for Brighton Plantation (about 20 miles north of Skowhegan) looks suspicious, will probably get a QC contact. Next highest for Somerset County was 2.02" in North New Portland, and the reporting town nearest to Brighton, Harmony, had 1.48". GYX issued a tor warning for west/central York County (Cornish area) at 12:38 AM. Saw pics of damage in Standish, just to the east, but haven't seen reports of funnels on the ground.
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Severe Weather Threat Week...so many threats!!!
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
IIRC, it was a week ago this past Friday when there was a watch extending from southern WVA to north of Moosehead Lake. We got 0.02" of sprinkles from that one. -
Low of 48 this AM, now approaching 80. My preferred summer wx, especially if precip is average or better. (Running about 50% since May 1, local river closer to record low than to the 25th quartile level.)
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A long-time silviculture professor (now retired) at U.Maine has said that up to 30% of white ash may be tolerant of EAB. (Having worked with this man starting in 1980 during his grad school days, I have much respect for his opinion, so I'm cautiously optimistic.) Others have noted that blue ash in the west also shows some tolerance. Green ash and brown (black) ash, not so fortunate - next to zero tolerance, if that much. In the upper Midwest and adjacent Canada, green ash is prevalent and most of it is dead. Brown ash is an integral part of the culture of Maine's (and Maritimes') indigenous populations. Probably no other people would be more impacted if EAB eliminated most/all of that species. Fortunately, Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) appears to have been controlled, so far. One hot spot was ORH, and the ALB damage (numerous holes 3/8" diameter or larger) significantly increased tree breaking from the 2008 ice storm. The global society has its downsides. However, I've not heard about any insects/diseases native only to the Americas that have caused serious problems across the ponds.
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If he could learn the playbook, he's HOF material. He looked as big as the monster roaming the NNJ community where I grew up.
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While portions of New England have experienced greater floods - VT in 11/27, western CT/MA in 8/55, central Maine in 4/87 - March 1936 is probably the most widespread major flood in the 6-state area's records.
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Depends on location, of course, and summer temp max is a plateau more than a peak. Current (and "live", so subject to added data) mean temps climbed above 65° on July 10th and drop below that mark after August 10. The peak wiggles under/over 66° during the final week of July. Edit: The much longer record of the Farmington co-op shows a peak on July 19, with means remaining within 1° from July 7 thru August 4. For the current norms, 1991-2020, warmth peaks on July 29, same as for my data 1998-on, and remains within 1° from July 10 thru August 11.
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Caught the fringe of a TS 3-3:15 this afternoon, much stronger to the south, was warned for S. Franklin and Kennebec Counties, heard reports of hail in Belgrade. My tenth inch beats none at all.
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Some 70 dbz echoes along Route 6 east of Springfield in eastern Maine.
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Horsechestnut husks have dull spikes all around. Leves/friut look more like black walnut.
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And measuring down to tiny concentrations. Something like 30 parts/trillion for PFAs is the threshold. 30 years ago parts/billion was the limit of precision.
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Not much production from that well - one gallon takes 6 minutes? Never before heard of a non-dry well that slow.
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So 0.02" here?
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Little shower with 0.02" about 10 last evening, no flickers nor rumbles noted, nice 7-10 exactly as modeled. 2022 precip was running at average thru April, only about 50% since then. Garden season precip has been lacking over the past 6-7 years compared to my first 16-18 years here.
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Tuesday, July 12, 2022 Stupid Severe Potential
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
0.02", coming long after the storms had died. The modeled 7-10 with Rt 2 avoidance verified perfectly. That happens frequently enough to make me wonder why - might the Presidentals be pulling the teeth from the energy, such that downstream for 100 miles gets shadowed? -
Tuesday, July 12, 2022 Stupid Severe Potential
tamarack replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
SVR watch stretches from southern WVA to northern Maine. Can't recall that extensive of a watch area. Mybe we can score a tenth here. -
One of his 10k units lands in Trapp Family Lodge parking lot.
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It's a bit more irritating when a blizzard-warned 12-18" forecast becomes a 1-2" forecast as first flakes are falling. Especially when other Maine sites are shoveling 15-25.
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Or the 25th - had 2.54" on the 12/25/20 Godzilla Grinch. Not only the biggest one-day rain in 24 Decembers here, but its 29° AN temp is the greatest positive departure for any day here. 2nd place is +27 on 3/22/12. Th morning warm front 7-10'ed us, the current storms are staying just north, and if the modeled precip verifies, another 7-10 later this afternoon. The Rt 2 corridor between Bethel and Newport seems to repel rain, also snow in some winters.
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One more thing to harass the beech trees. It's only in coastal Maine at present. Beechnut crop size and bear cub numbers are closely linked in Maine.
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Most of my bear sightings were also from a vehicle, especially when I worked in the Allagash-Estcourt-St.-Pamphile triangle. Peak time would be June, when the critters would take a dump in the middle of the road. IIRC, I only spotted bears 7-8 times while on foot, including bears in trees twice. First was Mama and a pair of 2nd-yearcubs munching on beechnuts, with one of the cubs in its own tree. After 10 minutes of looking/listening (they chomped like pigs and broke branches to access the treat), I moved slightly and mama saw it, then came out of that tree at top speed. She wanted OUT, and I could hear her crashing away for a couple minutes. It was early autumn, when sows abandon 2nd-year cubs ahead of bearing young during the coming winter, so that might've been her breakaway. Second was just the cubs, 1st-year critters, with mama not in sight - that was more nerve-wracking. Had a sizable grunting bull moose come at me one early October when I was in big spruce 1.5 miles from a road. When it got within 20 yards, I began hollering and tossing sticks - didn't want to deal with a disappointed thousand-plus-pound animal when he discovered I wasn't the cow of his dreams. He dropped his head to show off his antlers, big even in proportion to his size, waved them back and forth for a minute, then walked an equidistant quarter-circle around me, resumed grunting, and went about his business. A few minutes later after my pulse settled a bit, I did the same.