tamarack

Getting 2" over the past 10 days has brought the month to 2.90". July average is 4.06" so we'll need a lot more than the forecast (1/4-1/2") to avoid the 8th BN month in the last 10. (And the 2 AN months, Feb/April, were only 0.62" and 0.77" above the mean.)

IMO, that's a generous estimate, at least for here. Perhaps divide it by 10, maybe 20, for MBY. I think we've been in the box 4 times this year and might make it 5 today, and that's about the average. In 24+ years we're yet to experience severe conditions - closest was June 2005 and the 14th last month. It's been close, the hailstorm that defoliated (and partially debarked) trees on several thousand acres in late August 2007 was less than 10 miles away. Every 2-3 years we get inside a warning area, even a tornado warning once - that system washed out some roads in the next town west (we got 0.09" and no thunder) and dropped an EF-1 about 30 miles to our east.

Considerable tree damage too, he said without surprise. Public Lands Northern Region staff were cutting their way thru blowdowns on roads and hiking trails yesterday (and probably continuing today.) As of late afternoon yesterday, they had not gotten up Deboullie Mountain to check the status of the firewatcher's cabin and firetower, though the recently replaced cab was still in place. Folks have not heard of any injuries, a relief given the heavy recreational use of that Public Lands tract. Edit: Evidently the outhouse near the summit got trashed, and as many folks climb up there, quick replacement is in the plans.

Might be tolerable if dews remained modest as in that mega-torch.

The distance from central NE to central OK is about the same as from Farmington, Maine to TTN, and extending the western line to DTW gets the eastern one between RIC and Fredericksburg. And the latitude change is about 40% greater in the west - N-S compared to NE-SW. That's countered by the greater latitudinal gradient on east coastal regions.

Biggest rains were south of there, like the Pit 2 region, but we did ok. The morning showers faded as they neared us, so 3 hours of showers amounted to just 0.19". The one-boom TS 4:30-4:45 dumped 0.44" and probably had 3"/hr rate at peak. July will still finish BN unless the late week action brings 1.16" or more - very doubtful. That would make 3 BN months in a row and 8 of the last 10.

52° for the low here, and the CoC upper 70s high will feel just as great.

I'd be happy if the yellows just to my west hold together long enough to water the garden. All that juicy-looking radar this morning failed to reach 0.2".

I despite deerflies above all other flying things, but I'd never do that to a hat. For one thing, dead deerflies seem to attract even more of their compatriots. Can agree about the late arrival of those miniature flying T-rexes - drove thru the mile of unmaintained road to our place Saturday afternoon and arrived with a squadron of 10-15 deerflies pacing the pickup at 15 mph. Only light RA so far today, may need afternoon convection to reach the forecast 1/4-1/2".

Nothing confirmed from CAR, but earlier they reported a cell with apparent rotation moving from just south of Deboullie to Winterville, the town just south from Eagle Lake, also a damage report - trees/powerlines down - on a side road in Winterville. Meanwhile, I'm watching the RA+ echoes diminish to lgt RA as they approach our area, maybe up to 0.2" in occasional showers, otherwise just muggly.

Upper 80s but TD<60, hot in the sun but not oppressive. I'm guessing that today will be hotter than tomorrow, when the sun has all that water to cook, but that tomorrow will feel hotter.

Wow! Looks something like our 2nd TS on June 14, except you're far more exposed so much windier - probably topped out in the 40s here. We had 0.92" of which at least 0.85" fell in a 10-minute period that included a minute of very light RA, and assumes the gauge caught the full amount. Also, the 2nd half, when the visibility dropped to 100 yards in wind-torn mist and dimes were bouncing around, had by far the heaviest precip, RA+++ vs RA+ for the first downpour. No Davis, just the Stratus, so the 10-minute average of 5.1"/hr means that second downpour was considerably more intense, but who knows about the rate.

Low in mid 50s here, probably quick heating of the drier air in store. At least the Sox combined a week's worth of stink in one game. After the 5th, I was rooting for a 35-run record.

Wind is very good at picking out the weak trees, like that one with lots of rot at the base.

Or maybe the "Rainbow Six" solution (for those who have read the Tom Clancy books.)

But IMO it's more often the run-of-the-mill wintry wx that cause the fatal crashes than the blockbusters loved by most on AMWX.

Nice hyperbole! However, unless it's of Feb 1978 or March 1888 magnitude, damage/casualties from winter storms are low compared to hurricanes, tornados and severe TS (and big heat!). When it's puking snow, drivers slow down. When it's very light, they maintain speed and bad things become more likely.

It's like the Whites suck all the juice from convective systems. Later areas of bright echoes heading at divergent paths toward north and south of here. Really nice-looking line heading thru the St. John Valley, starting to bow. (When we lived there, we had fewer TS but more frequent SVR - counterintuitive.)

May's highest: 90, on the 14th June's highest: 89, on the 26th July's highest: 86, on the 17th (so far) We've reached 90+ on 18 days here, including 7 during July-Sept 2002. Have not had a 90+ in those months since then, but have 7 such June days 2003 on and 2 in May, the first in 2017. As the forest fills in and grows taller after the previous owners' timber harvests of 1990 and 1994, it's been hard to record really high temps when the trees are fully at work.

Made it through on dry ground.

Watching that line as it approaches is like seeing the Rd Sea parting on "The Ten Commandments". A sprinkle might graze the tenpin here. Glad we got the RA Monday night.

With a little RA to pump up the swampiness?

Looks like a SNE/MA thing. Last time we had a good def band lasting more than one hour was Pi day 2017.

About 4 years ago I was tasked to write an essay on global warming's possible effects on managing Maine's public reserved forests, the "descendants" of the original public lots designated when the northern/eastern townships were surveyed in the 19th century. As part of that I compared 21st century temp/snow to the long-term numbers for 3 sites: CAR to represent the North, Rangeley to represent the mountains, and Farmington to represent low elevation forests outside of the North. These facets cover about 98% of the acreage managed by my former employer. Four parameters were compared - total snowfall, days with 1"+ cover, minima zero or below (for freezing down winter logging roads) and maxima 32 or below (to keep them frozen). The temp numbers were limited to December thru March, the historical season for frozen-ground timber harvesting. (Note: Winter 21-22 has not been added. Snowfall for Farmington and Rangeley were well below average while at CAR snowfall was slightly AN.) Snowfall: Has increased 3-8% - for all 3 sites, average 6%. 1"+ cover: Has decreased 3-5% for CAR, Farmington; increased 4.5% at Rangeley. Avg down 1% Maximum 32 or lower: Down 1-4% (Rangeley least), average 3% Minimum zero or lower: Avg down 21%, CAR 18%, Rangeley 11%, Farmington 34% Start of records: CAR 1939, Rangeley 1961, Farmington 1893 but snow depth only since 1940.

Radiated surprisingly well here. Today's launch point is almost 10° lower than yesterday's low of 66, though today starts drier so may heat faster. That 66 minimum is the first 60+ morning of the year. Only 2009, the summer of stratiform rains, had to wait longer, to 7/28, for a 60+.