hazwoper

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Regular NAM on top…and the 3km that came west as well

Can you post 10-1?

2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

Seems like CBS3 is most aggressive with the totals showing 6-8" for PHL.No one else seems to be going past 2/4 3/6 I wonder what they are seeing that the other channels aren't.

I'll say one more time.  There is no way in hell anyone in the heavy snow bands in this or any subforum in the NE is going to see 15:1 ratios with a coastal system and high winds.  NO ONE.  Please stop with the nonsense.

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why ? ratios will be greater then 10:1 with this storm probably up to 15:1 at least

NO they will NOT!  Winds will be ripping.  No way anyone sees anything close to 15:1.  10 to maybe 12:1

12 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

If you think Miller B's don't have high bust potential, that is on you. 2' storms are rare regardless. We did get a 2' Miller B in 2010 and 2016 so I guess we are due for a 6 year 2' Miller B but you're not getting it this time it appears.

Edit: Here's a fresh article I found lol

https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-forecast-philadelphia-weather-winter-storm-20220125.html

Sometimes that “B” can stand for bust around here as they often blow up too far north and-or east to affect Philadelphia.

I’m sure Paul could update this thread with even more Miller Bs that have hit us hard.

1 minute ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

TBF you don't need to be scientific to know that Miller B's set to dump 2' of snow in PHL usually don't work out. Probably 4 out of 5 times. So I mean, assuming the GFS was correct all along gives you an 80% chance of being correct probably.

I've seen numerous Miller Bs dump in our subforum.  WTF are you talking about?

1 minute ago, hlcater said:

its 4th and 14 with the game on the line for NYC rn

28 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

 

Wow, it appears I hit this moving target in the bullseye.  No biting for me.  It appears another use of the leaf blower for this snow event. Gotta charge up the battery. LMAO

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I do not believe we get jack crap. OTS or hits Long island Boston area. The cards are not in play at this time. That storm has to be at least 150 miles more sw and wrapped around and amped like hell. The best storms are down at the BM at the Chesapeake Bay. Furthermore, the mid range models are so far off in this PA jet progressive pattern that it is scary. When the Nam shows it at the 60 hour mark, I will bite at it. Until then time to just watch the mood flakes fall tonight. Honestly this weather pattern is equal to the volatility of todays stock market activity - and thats bad. I might as well be reading the futures in the market for our...

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And yet you had absolutely no sound scientific evidence to back up your argument.  Congrats on your lucky guess.

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will be happy with a few inches 

Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

WPC seems to be going along with a blend by not discounting the Euro (a least with their morning tweet).

well before 12Z suite.  "Its over Johnny".

7 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

While it seems the next Euro run will start to cave to the other models, what if it doesn't?  Then what?

Its been awful all winter, it would be on its own, and thus it would be disregarded completely.

NAM set to crush us after 84 with 4-6 already on the ground 

4 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

Sorry I'm not popular around here I'll go back to my hole. Good luck to tonight's observers. Many fine drinks in here, cheers. it's not goodbye just a see you later 

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/9969845e-6da1-4870-8f1c-49d74dae8f0b

Just now, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

I'm sorry you're upset Zeus. There's been similarly tracked storms with similar setups that didn't pan out. I'm a traditional Miller A guy, I don't like Miller Bs and they tend to not play out well IMBY. God bless you

The NAM depicts a Miller A FYI

^ that would be a monster

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

2/2006 

I have to google that one

23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yo, in all seriousness, this model has barely wavered since Saturday....fwiw which probably ain't much

I can remember once, several years ago, when it did the same thing and lead the way the entire time....

6 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Euro gives south Jersey over 3 feet (not exaggerating) on the weenie maps. 2 feet for Philly and NYC, and a foot plus towards the LV and Poconos. Would be an all-timer if it verified. Need to see other models join it, though…and the JMA doesn’t count.

DO NOT look a Kuchera maps.....

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

People not to stop using Kuchera.  Those rates won't come close to verifying with this storm.

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Check out Rhode Island during 78. And the Albany area during 1888. While unlikely it’s not impossible 

fast moving system.....no, I can definitely say its impossible.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

OMG. No way. This cant be real. 

It just felt like the perfect place for it......

37 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I'm just amazed (and happy) that we even have a shot at a few inches from this event.  And it would probably be of the cold powder variety given the temps.  Given that, who gives a s**t how much NYC or BOS get or if they get crushed, if we at least share in some decent stuff too.

How much for Philly?

55 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Exactly...it's midday Monday?

As a long time follower this will change a million times to make your head spin....hopefully for the best. Not getting hyped before 48hrs....it's just a waste of time IMO unless you're a MET and this is your career/livelihood.

33F

Models do tend to pick out the big ones days out.  Not saying this will be the case, especially in the pattern we are in, but nearly every models has us with a SECS

8 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I agree.  I think it has been habit to still embrace it and continue to trash the upgraded GFS and NAM (the NAM actually has improved).

In the end, its something for us all to track, and likely kill all of our hopes in a few days time.....

2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Well the Euro sortof verified that.

Euro has been dreadful since upgrade (I can pull out all the weenie nonsense too)