hazwoper

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Insane lightning in that eye wall.

Strengthening at LF.  Not good at all .

10 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Could it miss the island entirely?

No

1 minute ago, Radtechwxman said:

Seriously really starting to wonder if this is going to clip far western Jamaica. It's going to need to make a hard right turn

It’s modeled to make the hard turn to the NE

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

totally untrue..

In a mountainous island like Jamaica it absolutely is true.  Obviously winds will be devastating at the center, but the biggest impact for the island will be the sheer amount of rainfall from this event that will be exacerbated by topo with mass amounts of fresh water having nowhere to drain during the height of the storm due to surge.  

Just now, lee59 said:

Fortunately for Jamaica the extreme winds only go out about 8 miles from the center. Kingston the capitol may not get into any hurricane force winds but strong tropical storm force winds seems likely. Of course everything depends on eventual path.

Again.  For the entire island flooding rains will be the main impact causing mass casualties.  The wind is only part of the story.

9 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Seems like some hurricane models and other hi res guidance are favoring a more west track before a north turn now which would keep it away from more dense population and hit more rural areas. 

I don’t think you are truly grasping what 30” of rain in Kingston means.  The entire island is in big trouble 

Reading this thread knowing that Chesco uses his data to draw conclusions based on data taken from other locations beforehand is peak denial of what is really going on.  It’s quite amusing.

Its an absolute travesty.

I sure hope all our favorite Mets at NWS Mt Holly are ok after the news this evening.  Horrible 

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

I don't think it matters that I am a Libertarian or Republican or Democrat or whatever you are - I don't care about anyone's political affiliation! The discussion above in non-political of course!! It is facts and that is all. I have no clue why you think the facts above are some how political??

If you can’t grasp what adding locked up carbon into our atmosphere does to our climate, I don’t really know what to say.  The science is clear.

Following the pattern we’ve had all year of less digging and flat out to sea.  Not sure why any of us thought we’d get a benchmark storm with how it’s gone all season.

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Front needs a good foot of snow, with some moisture.  It’s definitely possible at elevation.  But that sustained pitch for that vertical?  The part of the mountain between Hayride and Nosedive, known as “the Front” in Mtn Ops lexicon takes the most snow to open.  You are in it to win it once you enter those runs and the threshold to open them is higher than shorter, mellower pitches.

I do think a 6+ inch snowfall will reopen many closed intermediate natural snow trails though.

Thanks!  My two boys are telling me they plan to hike to profanity.  Guessing I should put the kibosh on that one?

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This was a tough thaw.  The hill got smoked.

I’d imagine it was widespread to other regions for melt with these temps and dew points.  The steep natural snow runs open (no snowmaking yet) need a good 1” of frozen QPF to be ok again.

Stake looked to have lost up to a foot.

 

Damn!  I’ll be at Stowe Thursday through Saturday.  Thoughts on natural runs opening this weekend @powderfreak?

46 minutes ago, RedSky said:

eh about like this, not much but it's good enough for a white Christmas

That’s only 1”

Roads caving in Hatfield

5 minutes ago, jhotdog said:

Is it suppose to be this early? I thought they were talking later tonight?

May just be interaction between the push of moisture from the low to the west interacting with the low level easterly flow.  

Inverted trough setting up just west of 95 and through Philly?

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

This is a classic GFS snow model map with 30 inches at PHL to 50+ inches for the heart of South Jersey - book it!!

 

Yup.....I guess its that time again.  Hello all!

14 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Disney world didn't shut down. Irresponsible. 

They’re closing tomorrow 

Buddy is at 14’ elevation a few blocks off of the Peace River.  Guessing he needs to GTFO?

Anyone have a good mapper program that shows storm surge forecasts?  Friend of mine from HS is in Ounta Gouda and I am trying to convince he to GTFO.  Could use some visuals to help.

5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder if the birds were seen visually, or picked up on radar on the plane.

"Observed" means they saw them visually. 

1 hour ago, BoulderWX said:

First spot of 30” based on radar estimates*

I wonder if those numbers are somehow being affected by the wind farms just to the NWof these high numbers.  Certainly seems like they are which would like mean they are incorrect 

Just now, eduggs said:

We go through this every time with landfalling hurricanes... Where's my 140 mph winds!!?? Due to friction with the ground surface, surface wind speeds are significantly lower over land than over water. So unless someone is literally right on a wind-exposed beach, which is not advisable in a surge scenario, it is very unlikely to record a peak wind speed anywhere close to what would be observed on the open ocean.

Again……THIS^

2 minutes ago, skillsweather said:

Not going to lie me either didn't want to be the first to say that though. I was watching reed's stream whole event went from no wind to 50-80mph gust at times to possibly up to 100mph gust recently with the eye wall but besides that pretty tame for a 140mph sustained storm it might of went a little east of their area.

Perry is 15 miles inland.  Much worse directly on the coast I am sure.  Tons of trees between coast and Perry for friction