Baroclinic Zone

Some AM local station updates.

It’s cold but nothing out of the ordinary. Low of 5F. Currently 9F.

John this is a great explanation of the mechanics.

Roofies

All caught up. Not much to add that already hasn’t been said ad nauseem. Early 12z runs look like an omega bomb incoming. We flirt with the sleet along the southern areas. I feel it will reach further inland down in CT where you are further away from the cold air drainage. Up here in SE MA, I think it’ll migrate inland about 10-15mi. Down along the cape you’ll do really well also before any transition to sleet. QPF has been bumping up as well this AM, so I think many areas will be seeing 15-20” with some localized higher totals wherever we see some banding setup or just inland from the cf intrusion.

7pm afd

I’m gonna be pissed if I don’t get 16”

Yeah, most models are going apeshit with 1”+ over 12hrs. Wild ride coming.

Goofus still quite juicy. 1.5” just south of Scott.

This? 00z Monday 700mb vorticity

I’d say gfs was not too far from its 12z run. At least consistent. We buying in.

Thats what my gut says as well.

This has the look of a hellacious 12hr window of dumpage followed by potentially a few hours of sleet before slotted. Then the wraparound moisture on Monday pivots through.

Looks like early 18z guidance has a stronger SLP which could be the reason for the warmer solutions popping up.

Can i pull out another 16”+ or 20”+?

Local PVD station

ASEMATT approved run

Solid GEFS.

12z GEFS bumping up QPF over eastern areas

Seems less dynamic as well. QPF cut back

Canadian coming in further south with thermals.

GFS onboard for Monday

Agreed. They did well sniffing out this storm but as we got within 72hrs I think we need to weigh them less heavily.

Ended up pretty close to 06z run, maybe 10-15mi north with thermals