Jebman

Wow you guys don't even have any leafout yet? We are already 80-90 percent leafed out. Yesterday it was 91 degrees with 74 dews, nice pleasant early spring weather down here in south central Tex. I was kicking back in the back porch on an easy chair snoring away. I've already been working outside in this stuff for days. But tonight that damn pesky cold front hit and now its freezing cold with 53/44 and north winds to 38 mph. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

Hope the Mid Atlantic gets plenty of rain, but not flooding or severe weather. You guys need some rain. I just don't want MillvilleWx to have to write up another 2000-word ERD for Northern Virginia or the District. All that urban concrete would be a total catastrophe. The runoff would be INTER-Generational.

Tornado outbreaks and flood warnings are popping up all over that region. Heavy training rains will continue into Saturday, provoking severe, even catastrophic floods.

Extreme NE AR and western TN are in play for some of the greatest generational rain tallies seen in the past 100 years over the next 5 days, as well as severe weather, tornadoes, very large damaging hail and high wind gusts. You guys might want to start play by plays. I know this is the mid Atlantic sub but their sub is fast asleep, I suspect many of those folks are working extremely hard to get ready for this atrocious weather event. Category 5 for severe https://www.weather.gov/meg/ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 642 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 -Severe weather and very heavy rainfall are expected this afternoon through Saturday. -Five day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range along and north of I-40. This is not your average flood risk. Generational flooding with devastating impacts is possible. -A High Risk of severe weather today, a Slight Risk is in effect Thursday,Friday and Saturday. -A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect today, Friday and Saturday with a High Risk on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A dangerous weather pattern will unravel this afternoon as an upper level low and attendant cold front will impinge on the area. As the system inches closer, the pressure gradient will tighten and bring strong sustained and gusty wind conditions. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 7 AM this morning due to these conditions. The highest winds will be found across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Elsewhere, gusts around 40 mph and sustained winds between 20-30 mph are expected. Surface analysis as of 3 AM shows a warm front lifting north across the Memphis metro. Surface observations behind the boundary show dewpoints entering the 60s. This moisture will provide ample instability combined with lift from the approaching cold front and a 70 kt LLJ; a High Risk for severe weather is in store for portions of the Mid-South today. The upgrade in risk is tornado driven as SRH values exceed 200 m2/s2 with curved and elongated hodographs. The CAMs have also been more in favor of discrete cell development, and given this prime environment, these cells could easily turn supercellular and produce strong tornadoes. Discrete cell development will be approaching from the west as early as 3 PM this afternoon. Strong tornadoes are not the only concern, lapse rates are between 7-8C/km with almost 3,000 MUCAPE to work with, significant hail is not out of the question; especially in any supercells. The discrete cells eventually will congeal into a line as the cold frontal boundary is anticipated to stall practically along the I-4O corridor late tonight which will shift to a damaging wind threat of 70+ mph gusts. Once the storm mode is more linear, embedded supercells within the line could still produce a tornado. The most likely timing for the severe weather is 3 PM- 12 AM as the loss of daytime heating and rain cooled surfaces should help stabilize the environment. It is so important to have multiple ways to receive warnings especially as some of these tornadoes could be strong and long tracked. All hazards could occur after sunset, which is the most deadly time. As mentioned above, the stalled frontal boundary will linger with at least slight chances of severe weather through Saturday. Instability to the south of the front is still favorable of a strong to severe thunderstorm. As this front remains parked, it will provide enough lift and bursts of energy to need to be monitored for a few storms with all hazards at play. This pattern will continue until the front clears the area. Saturday, the severe weather threat could increase slightly across north Mississippi as the front begins to move over a not as saturated area. While we continue to monitor the severe weather potential, a historical rainfall event will commence. Generational flash, river, and areal flooding are all possible. Maxed out precipitable water values for four convective days, training storms extremely likely, and any convective development increasing localized amounts has QPF values forecast to be in the 10-15 inch range. The area likely to see such high amounts will be along and north of I-40. Considerable flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas, is expected. Never drive through flooded waters, and flooded roadways are significantly more difficult to see at night. The axis of heavy rainfall could still very easily shift so be sure to continue to monitor the forecast. While our current forecast could break several rainfall records across the area, it is a bit more optimistic for it to be more spread out over four days, however, the culmination will put a strain on the ground`s ability to absorb. At some point, soils will become supersaturated and leave no option but to reject all the additional rain as runoff. Flash flooding will emerge as a primary concern with this extremely active pattern. In addition, all of this rainfall will make tree limbs very weak and easily breakable. It is best to not only prepare for flooding, but power outages as well. Moderate Risks and a High Risk of excessive rainfall are in effect for portions of the Mid-South each day through the event.

Looks like you need some help diggin out. That place reminds me of Mammoth Resort!

This is an EMERGENCY BROADCAST. THIS HAS BEEN RELEASED FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST TN and nearby regions are facing GENERATIONAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN in the upcoming week! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 841 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 817 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 -A very unsettled and active pattern will emerge this week. Several days of severe weather and heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday. -Seven day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range along and north of I-40, with the heaviest amounts falling from Wednesday to Saturday. -An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is present on Wednesday, a Slight Risk is in effect Thursday. -A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 817 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Surface analysis this evening places a 1018 mb surface high over the Upper Midwest. This is resulting in clear skies and temperatures in the 50s across the Mid-South as of 8 PM CDT. Current temperatures and dewpoints are running slightly cooler than forecast. Will make some adjustments to account for short- term trends. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape overall. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The Mid-South currently sits in a wonderful spring-like regime, characterized by dry weather and highs in the 60s and 70s. This pattern will last through Tuesday, before several days of impactful weather return to the Mid-South. Guidance continues to depict a stout shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies on Wednesday. This feature will kick-off surface cyclogenesis in the northern Plains with an attendant cold front accompanying the low. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict the center of low pressure dropping to around 985mb over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. As this system translates east, it will tighten the pressure gradient over the Mid-South. A Wind Advisory may be needed in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel on Wednesday as sustained winds reach 25 mph. Ahead of Wednesday`s frontal passage, the Mid-South will sit in an open warm sector primed for severe storms. Further spatial analysis depicts favorable instability and shear overlapping in the late afternoon / early evening time frame. This corresponds with the development of a 50kt LLJ, further aiding storm severity. The big question at this time lies with timing of convective initiation. The environment remains relatively uncapped throughout the day, but guidance holds off on storm development until the late afternoon. Any storms that fire in the late afternoon / early evening will become supercellular in nature, posing a risk for all severe weather hazards. In addition, hodographs at this time gain curvature and becomes slightly elongated. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out with the supercell storms that develop in the evening. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has kept the majority of the Mid-South in an Enhanced Risk for severe storms on Wednesday. Due to uncertainty with how early morning showers will impact the airmass, a higher categorical outlook was forgone. Severe storm chances will wane after sunset. A multi-day period of heavy rain is anticipated Thursday through Saturday as the previously discussed front stalls right along the I-40 corridor. Precipitable water values will approach and exceed the 99th percentile, resulting in efficient rainfall production. The latest storm total estimates paint a swath of 12 inches of rain falling in northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee between Wednesday and Saturday. Elsewhere, rainfall totals will range from 5-10 with amounts tapering off in the southeast portion of the forecast area. This amount of rainfall is generational. Significant river, areal, and flash flooding are anticipated during this 4 day stretch. We strongly urge everyone to remain weather aware as this event unfolds. A significant threat to life and property will emerge as this rainfall occurs. An end to the wet and unsettled period is in sight. Next Monday will be the first fully dry day. Until then, monitor your local forecast and stay safe. ANS &&

Mammoth is getting demolished by heavy snows and high winds. Over the Woolly Lot is is essentially becoming an intermittent whiteout. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Snow is rapidly piling up and blowing all over. It's an outright milkshake froth at times.

Join the Club. We Texans fail at rain, too.

This is very good, GeorgeBM! You really need to go to meteorological school and become a real Met, and get RED TAGGED up in here! You have definitely got the potential! Meanwhile in other news, Mammoth Mtn is getting smashed by steady snows and strong winds! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam It's getting that look about it! Check out that 3 foot deep drift in front of the stairs by the big Mammoth! Its piling up! Mammoth got 10 inches of freshies last night, 6 more today and will pile up more pow tonight!

Its snowing pretty good at Mammoth. They may get 2 to 3 feet of freshies in the next 48 hours! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge Woolly Cam is getting that look! Cloud bases are plummeting and snow is being blown sideways! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Palisades 8200 foot Scope is getting smashed too! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=palisades

One more thing. George BM, I would really like it if you would please post a big storm of any kind at the beginning of the April Banter Thread. Please!

Just a heads up: You lookin for good Spring skiing with deep freshies? Look no further than Mammoth Mtn and Palisades Tahoe come Sunday thru Tuesday, with an even bigger snowstorm a few days later! The Pac is gearing up for late season annihilation of the Sierran Cordillera! Lots of free refills and deep stashes!

Palisades Tahoe is getting pretty heavy snows right now! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=alpine Looks to be around a foot at the top of their resort. Look out Monday, Mammoth is going to get demolished again!

Austin is getting DIPOLED. We are in-between all the precip on Deep South Texas and the activity north and east of us. Jetstream and disturbances are robbing peter to pay off paul - and leavin Austin holding the empty bag. There's a reason Austin is so dry. NWS has drastically trimmed pops. We were supposed to have rain into midday Friday. No way, Jose. Its gonnabe just cloudy warm and humid, then warming up big time beginning Saturday. Deep South Texas is the Winnah, with 4 to 11 inches of fresh rain.

Buda, TX set to get slammed by training rounds of pretty intense rain elements shortly. We are far drier than a popcorn fart right now. Cracks in the ground are so wide I damn near fell in one yesterday! We are in a full on Class three drought already, but hopefully this can overperform and put a massive dent in our winter drought. Moisture is coming right up out of the Gulf of America then moving in very slow moving bands to the WNW. Hopefully this will get bigger and heavier then stall. We need rain BAD.

OK we did get rain. It became heavy and there was very dangerous lightning and even some pea sized hail. Winds gusted to 45 mph at times. We need rain, we are getting some. Thursday night/Friday/Friday night may get VERY rainy around here!

MASSIVE thunderstorm with 85mph wind gusts just to our southeast, just saved Buda TX from gorilla hails and hurricane force gusts! The main line coming to blast Texas into Oblivion later will likely be weak over Buda and Hays where I reside, saving us from certain destruction, while communities like San Marcos farther south will likely get annihilated later. While I am filled with Gratitude to the depths of my soul that Buda/Hays will be spared tonight, I ache because we need rain so bad, and we are already in a Level 3 Drought, in March, in a strong Nina year. We are highly likely to be bone dry, and super record HOT this summer. But at least I won't get flattened by 85 mph wind gusts, falling branches, and gorilla hails. I will survive, to thirst another day! In other news folks, Grok 3 has introduced me to Cyberpunk 2077 and dragons! Is anyone here into cyberpunk dragons? I think I might try to sell some, and even branch out into tshirts, mugs and hoodies with dragons on them lmao!

Jay Peak, Vermont has been in the low mid 60s for FOUR DAYS in a row now!!! What is going on up north? Spring is coming 4 months EARLY up there! Has anyone checked the North Atlantic Current lately? At this rate they will soon have catastrophic floods as all the snow melts all at once! This could be bad. Binghamton, NY hit 67 today! That's nearly 70 degrees, in mid March. That's way too HOT! Buda, TX was cooler than Binghamton NY today! We had sun! Uh-Oh.

Poor Sean. He had to use a shovel just to be able to walk to the snowboard, just because Mt Bachelor got annihilated by 25 inches in the past 24 hours, ON TOP of 10-15 inches the day before! They just moved the snowboard to a new site, just because Sean can't stand deep snow lmao! Sorry kid! The snow just got to be over three feet deep, with a hell of a lot more on the way! Would you take a look at the SIZE of those snow aggregates!! Better dig it up LMAO! I been watching it live! You can't even BELIEVE how fast that snow is piling up! You can actually see it accumulate IN REAL TIME, over just 60 seconds! This is better than Mammoth!

Mt Bachelor has gotten smashed by 25 inches of new snow since 5pm Texas time yesterday!

Mt Bachelor is getting demolished right now by HUGE snow aggregates! They have already seen 14 inches so far today, with a crapload more on the way!

Mammoth is still getting steady snow! The Main Lodge is still LIT! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

Mammoth Resort is in for it again tonight! More snow developing, more than forecast! Mammoth is receiving moderate to heavy snow, at a time when only 1 to 3 inches of additional snow are expected tonight. I think they are in for 7 to 12 inches of champaign snow tonight. A look at Main Lodge, WHICH IS LIT, shows at least moderate rates. Village Level also evidences moderate to at times heavy rates. I can see at least 4 to 6 inches of snow already on the ground at Village Level just since 4pm local time at Mammoth Resort. Tonight looks to over perform. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Additionally, Woolly Lot is showing some obscuration in wind gusts which are not expected to be considerable tonight. Therefore, snow rates are stronger than forecast. That lot has just been cleared of loose snow which had been 4 to 7 inches deep. I observed this earlier because of kids playing in the snow on the lot very close to the camera. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Mammoth is under snow attack yet AGAIN today! They have had 41 inches so far in the past 2 days! 30 inches 2 nights ago and 8 inches more yesterday then 3 inches last night. They are getting another 8 to 12 inches today! Champaign powder is simply piling up as snow immersion hazards increase! Next up on the Docket: Yet another major snowstorm in the set for Sunday night thru Tuesday! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

It is hard to believe but Mammoth is STILL getting hit by snow! The Main Lodge lights are still on, too! Snow is blowing around, you can even see it at the Village level as well. Even MOAR snow is coming Friday, to the tune of 12 inches of fine champaign pow! The weather currently at Mammoth is a refreshing 11 degrees, with a victorious wind chill of -2. Mammoth Mtn is simply piling up the snow with lots of free refills and incredible stashes all over, but watch out for tree wells off piste! The snow is over 17 feet deep in places! Sunday night and Monday will bring even more torrential snows, as will late next week! The Pacific is lining up a terrific set of storms, hopefully we can get a few bona-fide atmospheric rivers along the way! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge If you're jonesing for deep snow, count on The Jebman to show you where to go! I ALWAYS bring it!