Jebman

No, my location is really only going to get really cold for 3 days but with only a tenth of an inch of ice. I feel really bad for the people who have to deal with 2 inches of solid ice. Hey if you fly out to TX - try out the brisket out here. Damn that stuff is so good! Besides, if I do lose power, I would just sleep in my car, I got lots of cozy blankets and thick beach towels and I'd just cover up and snooze right through all the ice, if we got that much.

This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off. What really tends to irk me is how we faithfully track storms, only to have the damn NNE get the snow, while we make due with the scraps. Time after time, after time after time.

Once it becomes glacified, try sledding it. In Jan or Feb 1994 I was still in Dale City. We got 3 inches of pure sleet. Once it became a glacier, sledding was pure genocide. I was foolish enough to try sledding down a pretty steep hill on one of those circular plastic sleds. Pure ice substrate. Well, it was fast as hell. I won't ever do that again. Banged up pretty good. Shot down the hill at breakneck velocity jumped a curb onto the ice packed street lucky no cars on it at the time, simply shot down that street. Lots of onlookers watched amazed I didnt kill myself. Glacierized sleetpack is extremely fast. Sled it with EXTREME caution. Don't get Jebbed.

Sleetpack on top of snow? That is not going anywhere any time soon.

Two fooking inches of ice. Damn. That's going to be very, very bad. Bad, bad Leroy Brown. Baddest accretion in the whole damn town.

On that we both agree fervently. Its not just the ice and the outages and damages to trees/shrubs vegetation, vehicles, structural damages to buildings and electrical/communications infrastructure and massive pileups on highways to say nothing of people trying to walk to warm places on solid highly slippery glacierlike ice substrates, but the extremely cold air, devastating wind chills which will make this a very difficult dilemma for responders attempting to help people in need.

This is a very very alarming excerpt from the latest Richmond AFD as of 248am EST. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=AKQ&issuedby=AKQ&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off A variety of precipitation types are expected in this setup with big differences as you head NW to SE across the forecast area. Cold air holds strong at the surface for inland areas as the wedge reinforces. Warmer air likely intrudes across the far SE, with temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 40s to around 50 while areas across the NW stay in the lower 20s. In addition, all guidance indicates some form of a warm nose developing around ~850mb, potentially spreading as far inland as the NW Piedmont. This will result in a messy situation with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain possible across the forecast area. The thickness and strength of the eventual warm nose is what will ultimately decide our precipitation types. Precipitation likely starts off as all snow for a majority of the area Saturday afternoon-evening, spreading north from the south. A change over then occurs from SE to NW with areas across the far SE changing to plain rain. Meanwhile, it gets messier further inland with snow/sleet/freezing rain all being possible Saturday night into Sunday night. Right now far NW portions of the area would be favored for the most snowfall, while areas south of I-64 and along/west of I-95 would be favored for more icing (see further details about both below). Whatever form of wintry precipitation that does fall will be significant, hence the Winter Storm Watches. Ice: After looking at the 00z guidance, am really starting to get concerned that a good portion of the area may see significant to potentially catastrophic ice impacts. The latest NBM indicates a 30- 50% chance for AT LEAST 0.50" of freezing rain for much of the area along/south of I-64 from our western border over to the western Tidewater and up to the Middle Peninsula. 1.00" probabilities of freezing rain have increased to near 20% across South Central Virginia which may be too low. Even more concerning, the EPS Mean accumulation of freezing rain ranges from 1.00-1.50" across the same locations, with the deterministic ECWMF showing even higher/more alarming numbers. It is possible that the EPS/ECMWF, are overdoing the freezing rain and some of this QPF may be sleet instead (from glancing at model soundings), but even half of these amounts will result and a significant ice storm. Ice accumulation of this magnitude would likely result in major travel impacts as well as widespread and long-lasting power outages. Snow: Snow probabilities remain fairly steady, favoring the far northern half of the area up to DC. The probabilities for greater than 12" of snow (off of the NBM) range from 40-60% for much of the northern half of the forecast area, with even higher probabilities (60-80%+) for at least 6". I am concerned these values may be overdone, especially the further south you go, due to substantial mixing of sleet and/or freezing rain. There will likely be a very sharp cutoff in snow amounts (from north to south) just over or near the northern half of the forecast area which we will still need to fine tune with future forecasts. Everyone should take note and begin to make preparations for a significant snow/icing event as moderate to major (potentially extreme) impacts are looking increasingly likely from this storm. In addition, after effects from the storm will likely last well into the work week due to very cold temperatures. I am sorry if this has been mentioned before but this situation is SERIOUS BUSINESS. I am very concerned about those higher numbers. A few years ago I personally experienced three quarters of an inch of ice in Buda, TX. The effect on the oaks down here were alarming to say the least. Ice in excess of 1.50 inches is something I can not even begin to imagine. South Virginia and parts of North Carolina will very likely become disaster zones deteriorating into outright humanitarian catastrophes.

Looks like one hell of a snow job to me, especially in northern Virginia.

South Va and probably much of NC. So much damned ICE. South central TX is also going to get some ZR and sleet, along with freezing weather. Sun night we might hit 10 degrees without the wind. This system is going to be one frigid slippery dangerous killer beast. I hope not but there are likely to be pileups all over the ice areas.

We're gonna get it. And it's gonna be shweet. Have you not been entertained?

The worm is turning positive for DC, especially with more data ingests. You are all gonna do very well, even with some sleet on top.

Damn I take! This is very good for the DC Region!

He yanked your chain about the upper levels Tracker. He is well south of you lol

That's helpful dallen7908, but can I please have that in plain English, please? Approximately 7th grade English please.

I don't think anyone in the mid atlantic likes amped winter storms anymore.

I wanted to get a store bought supreme pizza so bad. No pizzas at all in the stores. SOLD OUT. Everyone is scared of the arctic front and about one sixteenth of an inch of ZR, only on the trees. Roads are too warm. Damn. No store bought pizza. I hate this storm, I really do.

Yeah we sure got amped.

Ugh GFS has a crap ton of ZR and sleet right on top of south central Texas. Feb 2021 anyone? This is gonnabe pretty bad. I know I will fall down and get all effed up BAD.

Years of living in the DC Metro Region bears that out. Most of the time, you take the highest model output for snow and half it. It doesn't feel good, it isn't comfy and you all know I want you guys to all get 20 inches with this. That FGEN makes me feel like I just won 7.5 billion dollars in the Mega though. Someone is gonna get clobbered with ridiculous snows.

South Va and N NC is a total catastrophe with close to 2 inches of ice accretion in low 20s ambient conditions.

Once all the players get onto the CONUS and we get some data sampling, things will get right back on track.

Models will be thrashing this out for the next 3-4 days. At times it will seem like we might get a lot of sleet, but I am sure that by Friday night or Saturday we will have a major snowstorm over the entire sub. Let's reel this one in.

This is very likely. This sub is gonna get real snow. Models will thrash this out for the next few days then we all get smacked HARD by heavy snow throughout the sub.

Let's just relax and have a look at the other models. Look, it's only a blip. We got this.

We ARE probably gonna make a run at BECSville.