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MANDA

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Everything posted by MANDA

  1. MANDA
    Max winds OKX https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=2&highlight=off&glossary=1
  2. MANDA
    Gusty at times here during the overnight and currently ongoing. Estimated up to 30 mph at times here on too of the hill.
  3. MANDA
    Max wind gusts from PHi
  4. MANDA
    This was not overplayed along the coast. Meeting expectations at a minimum. Especially for NJ beaches. LI power outages nothing to sneeze at either.
  5. MANDA
    Little Egg Harbor recently gusted to 59 mph. Winds busier than they have been up here all day. Nothing dramatic but estimated 20-25 mph gust at times. Just a bit of mist in the air.
  6. MANDA
    SNJ Coastal Flooding video. https://x.com/i/status/1977412609877123362 https://x.com/i/status/1977439577813172611
  7. MANDA
    SNJ Coastal Flooding video. https://x.com/i/status/1977412609877123362 https://x.com/i/status/1977439577813172611
  8. MANDA
    Latest PNS wind gusts NWS PHI as of 4:15 p.m.
  9. MANDA
    Little Egg Harbor Twp. gusted to 54 mph in the last 15 minutes from the NE.
  10. MANDA
    I think part of the reason for lack of a bigger water push is wind direction. Winds are more NNE than anything. Until or if they turn more ENE I can't see much reason for tides to go higher than they were earlier. Ultimate sfc low pressure track will determine if they go more easterly. Not downplaying but if not more of an east component coastal flooding would I think be held to moderate at best.
  11. MANDA
    Peak gusts as of 12:25 p.m. along NJ coast attached: Some beach cam links: https://friendsofibsp.org/live-cams/oba1-beach-cam/ https://exit82.com/beach-cam/ https://njsurfer.com/
  12. MANDA
    Love this !
  13. MANDA
    Received .16" rainfall 8am yesterday to 8am today. Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle began early yesterday afternoon and persisted up until the hours around mid-night. Currently just cloudy. Winds light. Perhaps 10-15 mph at times. This event always was and will be a bigger deal at the coast. Not a joke down there. Going to be moderate to locally major coastal flooding, beach erosion etc. Winds gusting to 60 mph+ ocean front seem likely. My expectations for rainfall up this way have come down. Was thinking along the lines of 1 to 1.5". That seems quite unlikely at this point. Main event is NJ / LI coast with long duration onshore flow, strong winds and coastal flooding / erosion. Wind issues along the coast as well with power outages / tree damage. This will be a big deal for coastal locations. Would not underestimate effects for those locations. Inland west of I-95 don't envision wind gusts much over 30 mph.
  14. MANDA
    I'm still amazed at the job the LFM did with the Blizzard of 78. Had it at 48 (only went out to 48 hours) hours and never let it go or wavered. I have that as second hand information as I was in high school at the time. I do remember speaking with Meteorologist Bill Korbel at the time and he was keeping me in the loop. I was one of his Weather Watchers back in the day. Great guy and great Met. LFM had a shaky reputation to say the least and was notorious for pulling the rug at the last minute.
  15. MANDA
    Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle most of the afternoon since about 1:00 here. Checked the gauge and .02" as of 4:50. Kind of damp, raw and chilly. Currently 57.
  16. MANDA
    Periods of very light rain, mist and drizzle ongoing here for last 90 minutes or so.
  17. MANDA
    That Ocean / Monmouth County area has been targeted for several runs on various models for the heaviest rains. Overall this map does not look out of line and is about what I'm expecting. Maybe boost the totals some for LI? Strong onshore winds always were going to be the main feature of this event along with associated moderate to perhaps major coastal flooding especially NJ coast / bays. Solid beach erosion is going to take place over 3 three high tide cycles. I think inland winds are overdone but would not be shocked to see some gusts to 60 mph+? along the NJ coast. Expecting up to 30 mph up in my neck of the woods.
  18. MANDA
    Repeatedly.
  19. MANDA
    All these phantom States of Emergency are a joke and they are going to dilute the message some day when they are truly needed. Used to be they were reserved for events like a Sandy or very significant snowstorms / blizzards. Now they are issued for next to nothing and certainly nothing you would ask for Federal funds for. Not saying this coming event will be nothing at the immediate coast. Beach locations were going to get the worst of things from this since the get go. It is looking less severe as we get closer to the event and certainly nothing you need a State of Emergency for 48-60 in advance for the entire state no less. Surprised he didn't hold a news conference.
  20. MANDA
    If 00z models are more or less consist with these 12z solutions then we know for almost certain where this is headed. WPC 7 day qpf has shifted precio max to BOS. Still have 1-3” soaking for most of this forum but dubious based on 12z global I would think. These phasing situations are murder.
  21. MANDA
    Low here was 37. Just scattered light front at sunrise. Some NJ coldest mins attached:
  22. MANDA
    5am temp here is 37 on top of the hill. Pequest, Sandyston and Walpack up in NW Sussex 28, 28 and 25 respectively. Mid 30’s down in the Pine Barrens. Ideal radiational cooling with low lying rural locations cashing in on coldest temperatures.
  23. MANDA
    Nothing here that I saw. Currently 40 degrees. Beautiful just past full moon popped above the horizon a short time ago, was out on the deck looking at it. Crystal clear and calm.
  24. MANDA
    WPC has notably beefed up totals further north and more inland with the latest issuance.
  25. MANDA
    In this case the coast of NJ / SLI could get close to those numbers. Don't think my area gusts to 50 mph as depicted though. Big story with this is going to be the coastal impacts. No joke with a solid 3 high tide cycles with strong onshore flow. Esp. NJ and to a lesser extent on the LI Sound. Moderate to major impacts NJ shore and minor to moderate on the sound. Going to be a costly event I think. Many homes ocean front and bays were raised or rebuilt on stilts so that will make it better than it would have been.
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