MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Feeling FAIRLY confident that my area of NW NJ will escape the heaviest event totals. Guidance has been targeting mainly along and east of I95 for max totals. Will have to watch radar over the next several hours. Key for NW NJ is where downstream convection starts to "ignite". Hopefully it will be near or east of BWI/PHL and then lift and/or train NE leaving NW NJ with just more frontal related rainfall but still with heavy downpours. Can deal with 1 or 2" out this way but 3-5" totals not good for this area. Still very wet out my way. Sitting at 5.5" for August to date here.
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WPC discussion heavy rainfall potential: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
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These constant heavy rain threats are becoming rather annoying I have to say. Too much now. Hoping for an under performer.
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Picked up .49" rainfall last 24 hours. August up to 5.47" here. Everything green as could be. I honestly don't think I've watered anything but some flowers in pots that are in full sun since late May. Have not had to water the lawn at all since late May. If we can just have modest rains for the next 6 weeks or so to wrap up the growing season that would be great. Daylight getting noticeably shorter now both morning and evening. Will start to drop off quickly as we get into early September. While not over by any means Summer is on the run.
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Don, That first picture is stunning! Well done!
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And totally expected. Plume after plume of dust, a lot of subsidence and shear to knock back even the most robust looking wave that rolls of Africa. Caribbean looks to be shut down for at least the next 2-3 weeks and likely longer. Hard to imagine any meaningful ACE getting racked up in that area. Anything of note I think will have to come out of the SW Atlantic or maybe the Gulf. CSU ACE of 50 is starting to look generous. Even with peak Climo coming into view if we don't see some relaxation in the hostile atmospheric conditions I would not expect much. We'll see what things look like as we move into September but August looks to remain very quiet.
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Nice summary from NJ Climate Office for July 2026. Lots of rain! Sadly a preliminary count of 33 NJ weather related fatalities. https://www.njweather.org/articles/july-2026-recap Watch for locally heavy rainfall totals later Sunday into Sunday evening.
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North Fork of L.I. got a local drenching last night.
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Picked up another .42" of rainfall from an overnight T-Shower. Loud thunder and a burst of heavy rain. No wind and just a flash or two of lightning. Total rainfall month so far: 4.98".
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Gotta keep an eye on this. Depending on synoptic setup could be local drenchers which many places don't need or want. Local flooding threat.
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Picked up 1.35" rainfall from yesterday's T-Storm. Total over the last 7 days 4.34". Since 6/1/26: 18.84" Since 7/1/26: 13.33"
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Any rainfall estimates coming in from that area?
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Back home. Eyeballing the gauge looks like 1.25-1.5”. Will confirm in the morning. Some moderate road flooding in spots coming up Sussex Tpk.
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Drove through there earlier. Was pretty wicked around the Green.
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Friend in Pittstown hit hard. Power out.
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Driving through Morristown. Like the end of days here. Bolts of CTG lightning. Gushing rain and winds to 40-45 mph. Pulled into a parking lot route home is tree lined and not taking any chances. Wet ground and wind not a good combo.
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Don't know the exact number but I think numerous locations were between 115-120 at least. Was just nasty.
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Same here. Never felt it more nasty HI wise before or since. It was stifling beyond words. You literally could not take 10 steps with starting to drip sweat.
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Absolutely and that shows up well on Water Vapor images. Flow from Gulf / Cuba and east of FL / Bahamas pretty much due north. Deep moist flow. PW been running close to 2" last several days.
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The humidity / dews are what is making this stretch nasty. Temperatures are not crazy so if we can at least lose the humidity I think most would be happy. It is really swampy out there again this morning. Had .02" last night as a T-Storm clipped my area. Bulk of it slid by to the west into Sussex County..
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Gotta wonder if we make the CSU 50 ACE points that are forecast. I'll take the under. Shear is nuts as we head into the peak of the season. I think close in development is our best shot at something interesting. Not happening over the next 10 days though. Caribbean looks to be shut down for the duration with El-Nino induced shear at full tilt.
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Localized drenchers last 24 hours.
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Same here. Lots of lighting and loud thunder. No wind. Torrential rain. Picked up 1.01" in about 15-20 minutes. Sauna like out there this morning.
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At least where I was living for Irene, Ida and Floyd Irene was a distant third compared to Floyd and Ida. Also on Floyd, I remember looking at the radar starting around 6am and it was a text book Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in the making. Classic.
