MANDA

Finished up with 2.8" here. Had about .70" crusty crap when I went to bed at around 11:15 but radar had filled in nicely and I was expecting 1-2" additional based on that. Fell just short of the low end of my forecast of 3-6". Melted total was exactly .5" and that was right in line with the model consensus. Was thinking .4 - .6". I knew we were in trouble very early on with sleet all through EPA, including Scranton and most of western NJ starting out as mostly sleet. No matter it looks nice out there this morning. My street is a mess from the sleet being covered by snow and temperatures in the upper teens. Kind of an ice sheet even with salting. Compressed sleet in cold temperatures covered by snow never a good thing.

78849996052__E5B45F80-3153-424F-B5C2-3EA31ECC6425.MOV

I'm under some of those instability type echoes moving s.e. from NE PA. Steady light snow and 20 degrees atm. Based on radar it is possible I can pull off another 1 to MAYBE 2" as these bursts of snow move through over the next few hours. Anything that falls from now until the end will be snow. Radar has filled in nicely over NEPA.

A crusty .5” mixture of snow and sleet here. Very light snow / sleet falling and 19 degrees currently.

Thanks Don. Great pic.

Same here. Was going 3-6" here as well. Thought 3" was pretty much a lock. The 6" was going to be a reach but I thought 3-6" covered the range of reasonable possibilities.

Still mostly sleet (light) here atm. Temp fell from 20 to 18.

Per mPING lots of reports of mixed by BGM

20.3 degrees and mostly sleet here.

Steady light snow here but there is sleet mixed in. Ground is lightly coated.

Yes. We'll see if indeed that happens. That is why I mentioned to give it a couple of hours.

Same here at the moment. VERY LIGHT snow started about 10 minutes ago. More snow grains than anything.

Lets give it a couple of hours to see what happens but I agree surprised parts of Warren County NJ and Stroudsburg, PA area are mixed at the moment.

Per mPING mixed precip or sleet over EPA from about Stroudsburg south to about Landsdale area in PA. Even mixed precip over parts of Warren County NJ.

I've had robust radar echos passing overhead for about an hour. Not a flake to be seen. Air is DRY. Should be seeing some flakes start within the next 30 minutes I would think.

Going to be fun to start now casting this in about 4 hours. Really am interested to watch this unfold.

Think the AVERAGE will be 10 to 11:1. Will start higher and end perhaps a little lower than 10:1.

Pretty broad ranges but I think most places will fall into those ranges.

I could be wrong but I disagree. Don't see that much QPF to generate 10".

I realize that but I still don't see 10" for this sub forum. We'll know for sure in about 18 hours.

I agree except I don't see 10" amounts in this sub forum. Holding firm to my forecast of 3-6" for my area. See nothing to make me want to change it.

Very few times I saw grocery store / supply chain issues. The BIG ones. Blizzard of 96 stands out as it covered large area from DC to New England and trucks were stopped and roads were clogged for 1-2 days after the storm. March 93, same thing. Sandy was another. These "little" storms are an and inconvenience for a few hours. We have enough leftovers in the house right now to last a week. I wouldn't go near a grocery store today if I was down to my last can of soup. Really takes a massive storm to disrupt an area these days. The larger of an area it affects the more likely it is to be disruptive to supply chain. We don't live on the plains of Kansas in 1930...we will make it for a day without being able to get to a grocery store. Just nuts all the panic and mad rush.

Company has gone, dishwasher is running and fireplace is still going. Just getting caught up. Nothing over the last 6-8 hours has led me to change my forecast for my area. Still going 3-6". The 3" covers if NAM has a clue and we get mixing out here and the 6" covers .50" liquid at a little over a 10:1 ratio. Feel confident in .40" - .60"qpf. do with those numbers as you wish. Don't see widespread over 6" amounts with the possible exception of the extreme northern fringes of this forum, even there 6" with a few isolated 7 or 8" amounts would be the upper limit, I think. We'll see how it goes. Good luck to all.