
dmcginvt
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Everything posted by dmcginvt
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Thanks, my photos were the bottom 2 here http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photomarch2001.html and I know I had many more also Im dave mcguriman mentioned on that page. man, my name on ne.weather was probably my name there also there was no security care then, although I know I started as [email protected] in like 95. Silly aol! I used to enjoy tq's forecasting snowfall contests. I remember some kid from albany who had a magical local knowledge of snowfall who's every word i followed back then, and he turned out to be powderfreak and still gives the best local forecast of anyone I know.
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March 4-6 2003 was the best example. I saw 32 in Methuen. Vday 2007, 38. We only got 24 for 1993 superstorm in Stowe. But it came in 12 hours. That 32 in Methuen was the most I had ever seen in a single storm until vday 2007. But I had multiple 18-28 during the 3 years in methuen, north and weest of 495 was in the ****ing zone. Vinateri kicking in 2001, so much snow that year,
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I submitted them to him, I lived on the west side, Sugar Pine Ln and the east side, 171 East st, and we had so many huge storms in the 3 yrs I lived there from 2000-2003. I knew him from ne.weather and always sent him pics and measurements. Methuen is a magical spot. I was in Stowe before and after that and only 1993 and vday 2007 really compare to some of the snow I saw in methuen for single snowfall totals.
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And us NNE;s don't care because we just nickel and dime our way to way more snow in the long run, seems like the trend is se new endgland nirvana, but I'm hoping for one of those 2-4, 3-6, 4-8 then suddenly its 10-20 all within 24 hours with the euro being right and the gfs coming home, it happens, well more with 90's models but i can ignore that.
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Ah Methuen. I loved everyone I met when I lived there. Everyone that lives in Methuen grew up in Lawrence. But moved to the suburbs of Lawrence when it got bad. It's a funny thing being north and west of 495, it gets dumped on. I live in Waterbury VT, I spent most of my adult life in Stowe, VT. But in the 3 years I lived in Methuen I saw synoptic snow like no other. I got so much snow when I lived there from 2000-2003. Let me count the storms. I dont need to, they speak for themselves. I'm sure 40/70 knows of them. You can find pics I took on don sutherlands site. Having lived in the nickel and dime of VT I was totally unprepared by the size of snowfalls that could happen in Methuen. I saw multiple 2 to 3 foot storms in those years. I'm sorry 40/70, your time will come again, it's inevitable. I've followed this whole gang since ne.weather
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is this coming our way? Or just getting eaten up by dry air
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This afd became: 000 FXUS61 KBTV 140247 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 947 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 259 PM EST Thursday...High pressure exists over the area on Sunday for a continuation of dry weather, but below normal temperatures. However, highs will not be as cold as Friday and Saturday. Attention turns to the low pressure system that will be deepening and moving into the Northeast late Sunday night and especially on Monday. At this time...it looks like widespread precipitation is expected with this system and thermal profiles suggest the majority of the precipitation to be in the form of snow with several inches possible. However, cannot rule out the possibility of some mixed precipitation, especially over southern and eastern Vermont depending on the low track, which still has some variability at this time. Will also need to monitor the potential for heavy snow as warm air advection, frontogenetic forcing, and upslope signals exist with this system. Another item to be monitoring with this system is the wind. Strong upslope signal exists over southern Vermont early Monday morning for a burst of steadier snow, but downsloping taking place along the west slopes of the Green Mountains, which could limit precipitation at the onset. The strongest downsloping would then be more concentrated over northeast Vermont Monday afternoon. As the system moves northeast of the area northwest flow aloft develops on the backside and upslope snow will be possible over the higher terrain. Looks like a brief break in the precipitation on Tuesday before a low pressure system quickly moves in for Wednesday and brings some light snow to the area.
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Sorry, this was one of the most verbose AFD's I've ever seen from btv, and for posterity sake I am putting it here. 000 FXUS61 KBTV 131740 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1240 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 335 AM EST Thursday...Another cold night is expected from efficient radiational cooling underneath strong surface high pressure, light winds, and relatively clear skies. Another night with temperatures in the -5 to -20 F range will be likely. Still, dress accordingly if out and about late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Southerly return flow will bring highs on Sunday into the teens with single digits above zero for overnight lows Sunday and into Monday. The next system of interest will arrive early Monday morning. Widespread snow is likely, but there`s also the potential for several other weather hazards, including strong, easterly downslope winds for western slopes of the southern Greens, as well as the potential for an interval of freezing rain or freezing drizzle in the system`s dry slot. We will continue to monitor the evolution of this system as there still remains some spread on the low track, but the probabilities of receiving at least 4" of snow is around 60 to 70 percent. Additionally, given the dynamical nature of this system, we will have to monitor for the potential for any mesoscale banding. With that said, let`s dive into the meteorology. Sunday night, a compact upper low in the southern US will begin to lift northeastward ahead of an amplifying ridge across the western Atlantic. The upper level wave pattern will become negatively tilted and surface low pressure along the US East Coast will begin to deepen as it gains latitude Sunday night. The warm frontal boundary will lift into the North Country near or before dawn on Monday. A coupled upper jet structure with excellent upper diffluence and strong isentropic ascent will support widespread snow. Additionally, a band of lower SEPV will lift northwards alongside vertical omega on the scale of -15 to 20 ubars/sec, which is quite vigorous. However, it appears the preferred area of highest omega may be outside the DGZ. Combined with increasing mid-level flow, this may result in more fragmented dendrites since well below freezing boundary layer temperatures would likely prevent much riming. These factors may make for lower SLR values as the warm front lifts north. NAEFS climatology places the 850hPa low in the 99th percentile of low heights. On the other hand is the mesobanding potential associated with the warm front. Forecast soundings depict hodographs that favor a laterally translating band that would lift north in tandem with the warm front. However, if the low track remains to our south causing surface northeasterly flow across the valleys, then a pivoting band could be an alternative scenario. Given the conditional nature of this time, we will wait for more mesoscale models before honing in on this potential. Yet this feature would promote an area of moderate to locally heavy snowfall. At this time, the translating band appears the more likely scenario, in which case the interval of higher snowfall rates will possibly be a short window. Again, we will refine these details once we get in the range of mesoscale models and start honing in on an hourly temporal resolution over the next couple days (this system is still 4 days out after all). By mid-Monday morning, the situation will begin to change as a low- level jet lifts into the region. The result will likely be FGEN or deformation band that is a bit fragmented, with some terrain shadowing taking place in the lower valleys, but upslope enhancement along eastern slopes of the southern Greens and Adirondacks. Additionally, dry air will be filtering into north of the surface low, as the cyclone will already be matured by the time it lifts north into the area. This could result in a transition to freezing drizzle, as the dendritic growth zone becomes unsaturated. The low track will also impact how far west the low-level jet reaches. If the low tracks east of the region, we will lie at the nose of the jet, and not see its worst impacts. However, if the low tracks into Vermont or northern New York, we could see 850hPa winds up to 70 to 80 knots into southern Vermont and the Adirondacks on the north side of the low. Although conditions are not highly favorable for mixing, these winds are quite strong, and the easterly component is near record values of the NAEFS model climatology at this time. With the strength of the warm advection, we could also see temperatures climb above freezing. So a brief interval of drizzle or rain, mainly across southern Vermont, is also a possibility. The next evolution in the system comes late Monday afternoon as the system begins to lift towards Quebec City. The northwest flow and additional shortwave energy, coincident with wrap- around moisture, will result in some upslope snow on the backside. This should also close out the potential for any freezing drizzle with the DGZ saturated once again. Expect snow to taper off to the mountains by Tuesday morning. Then behind the system, we should receive another surge of cold air. However, the flow aloft remains west-northwest, which may keep the coldest air north of the international border. Still, temperatures below seasonal normals appear likely. Then looking at the end of the extended range forecast, it seems a clipper system will cross nearby next Wednesday. $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd/Neiles SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Banacos
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I mean any of the glades off of nosedive also count. Once you come down the first 3 steeps (so it doesnt count) the woods especially skier side left are fair game for intermediates. Bolton has amazing backcountry, but the whole of smugglers notch accessible from a few simply traverses and way more from a short hike? Sorry, there's nothing better. Sigh, it's not a competition but my ex lives up there in the bolton condos so...Stowe always better
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Wow that sucks man. Always hard to tell but that sore throat seems to be the hallmark of omicron. As with any covid have someone get you an oximeter!! If breathing gets tough and the o2 is below 90 on all fingers, seek help pls. I had covid before the vaxx was available and what I learned is it's really the o2 that counts. Some fingers might have better circulation than others so it's important to test them all for an average. You just dont want to get the pneumonia that thrives in that low oxygen environment. I had access to a cpap that helped me immensely. But I know from er friends that oxygen saturation in the blood is everything in their triage. Dropping below 90 on multiple extremities is when you seek help.
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HA, so wrong I now see the trail signs, embarrassment ensues
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That is a sick picture!! WOW. Top of national? My best guess because it drops off so sharply and then national goes to the left down at the bottom of the pitch like that, as it crosses over liftline
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flip flop the models go. Who knows. Whatever happens happens. I think this one is magnetically attracted to me and coming this way. 100 % wishcast. But my confidence is 50 % +/- 20 with a confidence interval of 95.
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Confirmed accident. But 89 Northbound traffic was "way worse" so that's interesting!! Sent: Saturday, December 4, 2021 4:47 PM To: DPS - Roadway Alert <[email protected]> Subject: I89 Southbound - Exit 12 Press Release – Highway / Traffic Notification I 89 Southboud is Down to One Lane in the area of Exit 12 due to a Motor Vehicle Crash Motorists should expect delays in the area, or seek alternate routes.
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Just want to add was coming back from Btown to h20center at about 5 when it hit French Hill. It snowed hard, froze instantly, and Man what a shitdown (i'm leaving that typo because I like it, but I meant shutdown). Shitshow traffic and accidents on both sides with backed up traffic and cops lights everywhere. It was as if this was not forecasted and they could do nothing about it. Maybe put down some brine next time AOT? I mean I recall reading someone here or maybe an AFd yesterday saying a slug of snow around 4 pm. Totally avoidable. But in the Vermont way, 97.96% of the people were totally patient and slow once they realized the whole area was a sheet of ice.
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Man to be a hiker who hasn't made it to shelter at Mt Ellen or Mansfield!! That cell over sugarbush is the real thing.
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-15F here
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