12z GEFS had some interesting changes after the day 10-12 cold shot. Finally starts to build a ridge out west but just off the coast so still a -PNA. When looking at the +QBO/wNina v/s the +QBO/sNina the 12z GEFS and CMC-ens is kind of in between. The wNina has a better Aleutian ridge that builds poleward and almost connects to the scand. ridge building toward Greenland and the sNina don't. Both composite sets have a atlantic ridge but the sNina combines it with a SER so the SE is much warmer, which is what the GEFS shows. Obviously we want the wNina pattern as that gives us a chance, the sNina patter doesn't. I don't see why come mid Jan we aren't in the wNina/+QBO pattern....but then again, we do suck.
The sNINA/wQBO v/s the w/Nina/wQBO really diverge in Feb, the sNina is a furnace and the wNina's are very wintery.