packbacker
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Everything posted by packbacker
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Can't wait for the NW trend so the MA to BOS gets there 10-15". That's always enjoyable. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
So all 3 globals show light snow by day 6. Wonder what's JB is going to say after seeing that Euro run... -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
So the CMC and GFS both show snow within the next 6 days, with ensemble support...lets see if the Euro can join them. What could possibly go wrong.... -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
LOL...your winning so far this winter. This sure is a lot of work for what at most will be a 1-2" snow event. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
That was as wintery a day 6-8 ensemble run on the GEFS as we can hope for. But, still days 6-8...we can screw some winter patterns/storms up fairly fast. Until it's inside day 5 on both the GEFS/EPS then I won't get to sucked in. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Heartbreak starts tomorrow's 12z runs. Euro is going from supression to jackpot then we know what happens after that. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
LOL...well the 12z Euro/EPS was a big rainer for us and then 0z Euro/EPS was a cold/dry suppression. So yeah, hard to get to excited with that model agreement. Odds are high this 12z suite is different too. Until we get some run to run consistency it's hard to get excited about anything. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
LOL...That is crazy....but true. DGEX snowfall maps never get old. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Dec will end up being fairly stout SER, I think Jan could have just a strong SER with some ridging up into the Atlantic. But, yeah, fairly close. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Well...another Dec AN for the SE. That's the 7th consecutive AN month for us and the 6th December in a row. Come 2020 we will get a new climatological normal and these AN months will soon just be normal. Come on Mac, get us out of this mess. If I had money I would put it on Jan being AN. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
GFS/GEFS 2 wave scenario I guess could be on the table. First wave comes out, rain for us, but lowers heights and drags front down and then 2nd wave comes in. Wow was talking about this I think. Not good when your putting your eggs in GFS baker but you could argue fast flow lends itself to this. The two wave scenario would be fun for whoever it hit as it could hit the same area back to back. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
SST's are neutral now but still Nina forcing. CFS weeklies say that continues until end of Jan and then potentially changes. Who knows...but based on Euro Weeklies it probably agrees based on its week 3+ changes. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Yep...would be my guess. I definitely don't see Jan being BN, I see it being warmer then Dec for the SE. I think Feb could be ugly, if Nina is still driving. If Nina forcing backs off maybe +PDO with blocking can help, ala 1960. If you look at 1960 Feb-March temps you see what I mean. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Personally think this will end up being an Apps runner, maybe transfer over NoVA. The stronger energy holding back with deep west coast trough....doesn't equal winter storm for us. Weaker wave with stronger Atlantic blocking gave us a chance...it's trending away from that.... Nina climo...last Jan was Nino climo with SE and east coast event. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
JB is convinced that just because the EPO is so strongly negative that with AO/NAO looking to go solidly negative is enough to kick the trough east after next week. 60/62 has had a lot of similarities to what we are seeing, but trough for the most part stayed in the west that Jan and we battled a SER. Both of these winters were weak Nina and wQBO. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Actually the day 6 and 7 h5 was fairly nice looking and was thinking it would at least be as good as the 0z but then the Atlantic block retreats quicker day 7-8 and that was that. Still looks like it's burying more energy in the sw though. Just thinking that climo favors TN up to NE with such a strong - PNA. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Good news and bad news on the EPS.... Bad news says we are a cool rain next Fri-Sat...good news we won't have to worry about tracking a storm for a while. Still hope we get a 1-2" sometime...but with winter supposedly getting progressively warmer into Feb I am ready to pull my money off the table. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Whoever punted January...hard to argue with that. Ready to punt this whole winter if we have this for bulk of Jan. -AO/-NAO and we torch. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
From your locale to mine we are in the "have nots" since 09...actually pathetic looking at everyone around us killing it. #snowhole Why I am not overly excited about this upcoming potential... -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
Feeling a EPS letdown in about 30 mins. -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
packbacker replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
EPS wasn't as good as 12z but we can still make lemonade with this. Though we may have to sacrifice something for luck...like a chicken.