WxKnurd

Just got home, wind picking up at my place and 37 with light rain.  Deer were bedded down at the bottom of my driveway, tells me they are anchored down and waiting.

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

I can't believe Waynesville is so much warmer than I am. Crazy.  Still sitting at 33 degrees. 

It’s your dang hollar up there, it’s where all the cold goes in Haywood haha.  Think we are sitting pretty for a surprise, just hope I get home tonight before it happens!

I’ve got rain in downtown Waynesville, 44 on the truck thermometer. 38 at the house in Crabtree. 

7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Surprisingly im already down to 34 under clear skies.  Also reading from the TN forum there seems to be a bit of a surplus in moisture with this front and the orientation is a bit better with the front currently.  There are reports of 20 degree temp drops in 1 hour also. This is some serious stuff fellas. 

I’m down in Waynesville but my station is showing 40. Man if I hit -9 or 10 as modeled with this front, your place will be -15 I bet. 

19 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah it looks really good for some of the favored areas.  You'll probably do better than me because it is coming in more westerly. 

Yea I think you and I probably should be thrilled to squeak out an inch.

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the modeling has been really behind on this arctic front and with the moisture behind this front also. I think we see some very impressive high lows and lows this weekend. 

NWS has me for a low of zero tonight, 2 for the high tomorrow and -3 for Saturday morning.  Don’t go back above freezing until sometime Tuesday per the point and click.  There’s a strong possibility those of us above 3500’ could be single digits or below for 24 hours straight if the HRRR pans out or even “worse” and it’s on the high side.

I’ve experienced a 45+ degree drop in less than 12 hours (I think it was like 8) in Ohio but that much in an hour is crazy.  The fact we are about 30 hours away from experiencing a blue norther this far SE is historic.  0z HRRR shows me at -9 at 11:30 am Friday morning, I can’t wrap my head around if that were to verify. 

19 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

Since the snow potential albeit light is anafrontal, wondering if ratios could be much higher since we are seeing dramatic temperature drops in 3 to 4 minutes?

Saw a map earlier in the TN Valley sub forum showing forecast ratios in the range of 20-26” of snow per inch of liquid for all mountain counties. 
 

Potential for high ratio stuff is there if we get the moisture once the front blasts through.

Some occasional flurries over here in the Lake Junaluska area.  

Just now, Met1985 said:

I absolutely believe a lot of people especially over 3500 feet will not get out of the single digits or above zero.

I’m doing my preparations today and tomorrow since I’m leaving Saturday morning to ho down to Hickory til Monday.  Only one outside hose bib to worry about but all faucets are gonna be dripping water when I leave.

Not saying it’s gonna help us a lot or that a 500 mile shift back to last week is gonna happen, but the east corrections with the low track have kept up all day thus far with 0Z runs from the “big boy” models to come. At the very least an Apps Runner track should help upslope for border counties.

4 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I noticed that...I'm still pretty optimistic about the upslope component!

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

You are sitting pretty for sure.  Hoping us Haywood posters can squeeze out 2-3” down here from this setup, I’d feel better if I was up on Waterrock Knob, Hemphill, Max Patch or even Crabtree Bald 3 miles to my NW.  Elevation is always king (except for inversions or a wedge lol)!

19 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Not going to happen on the euro.  This pattern change has been nice getting back to normal lol. Honestly we will do better in January. 

Modeling aside, I’m with Hunter’s thinking that this Friday system isn’t gonna start to be cemented until Tuesday.

Weather station is showing a low of 20.8 this morning, currently 28.6.  

Anyone wanna come shovel my deck for me if things come to fruition since I’m recovering from a broken ankle for another 5 weeks? Lol.

Was socked in with clouds off and on rising up the mountain til about 2 pm, turned into a pretty day after that.  

Got up to watch the lunar eclipse.  Perfect view out my bedroom window for it and perfect conditions with no clouds or light pollution in my are.

12 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah it's definitely cold out there currently. 

Not supposed to get above freezing where we will be basically from when we get there Thursday til we leave the following Saturday according to all the ensemble models I’ve looked at.  Yesterday was ridiculous, close to 80 in Asheville while I was walking the greenway.  Felt great once the sun went down even if it was more like late April.

13 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Big changes on the way for the end of this next week. A huge cold shot for sure. Will be a shock to the system. 

Supposed to be cold while I’m out in Nebraska hunting, so hopefully I can bring some back with me to keep it entrenched!

Looks like I need to come hunt the NF land that borders your neighborhood in a few weeks.  Great pics @Buckethead!

36 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

The microclimates here in the Mountains are absolutely fascinating. That’s a huge difference for y’all, with the close proximity. Hopefully one day I’ll get to compile some numbers for different ones here in Macon County.

Met is 200’ lower in elevation than me, is maybe 2 miles away as the crow flies and seems to just about always bottom out a little colder than me.  Gotta love how our topography and its orientation play a role in all aspects of our weather. 

On 10/20/2022 at 11:21 AM, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Sweet setup! Love the Kifaru bag. Which gaiters are you wearing? 

Just now saw this.  That bag is the Hellbender, picked it up at the Park City Total Archery Challenge back in July, replaces my .22 mag for my daypack and 1-3 night bag.  The gaiter are Outdoor Vision’s.  I have their originals but needed a new set.  They are sweet but tore a hole in the upper material navigating a burn area (not as durable upper material now IMO), should be able to sew them up. 

Amazing weather this past weekend, so glad I was home to experience it.

Colder back home for the highs than out here in the Colorado mountains this week! Was cold this morning at 20 degrees down in the “lower” 7000’ terrain but shot up to the 50’s and 60’s quick.  Hate I missed the first taste of winter l but the views out here while chasing elk were hard to beat. 

Storm rolled through at my place while I was in Waynesville, could see it lightning while I was driving home.  Was greeted to this tree being down and the transformer flashing about 1/4 mile below the house, had to cut it out of the road with a machete since I didn’t feel like walking up to get my saw.

Had 44 when I left the house at 5 am, coldest I saw on the parkway was 37 between 5 and 6k feet, Richland Balsam I saw 43 and then it was 41 when I left the truck at 6 at Black Balsam.  Great Fall morning and the crescent moon looked spectacular!