WxKnurd

Just now, Met1985 said:

Current temp here is 31 also. Had a low of 21. The ground is primed.  We had a heavy frost. 

Crazy how your protected hollar helps with temps. Only got down to 28 at my place. Getting the majority of my stuff moved in today finally, hope to send the family back down to Hickory before things kickoff tonight barring an earlier than expected arrival that seems to tend to happen.

33 in NE Haywood. 

17 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah Haywoods climo is complex from community to community or mountain to mountain but everyone in the country should get theres. Youll have the moisture coming from the south then youll have the NW flow setup after the storm pulls away.

Micro-climates are always fun.  My old place on Balsam should do great with this setup.  Should be a good county wide hit like you said.

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

GFS looks on point also this morning.  I really don't see much mixing issues for the mountains at all. Not saying GSP is wrong but I just don't see it. 

Me either, short range models have burned me too much with showing increasing totals  in the past to make me put much faith in them regardless of what they say (though I believe the HRRR is what first noted what happened with the 1/3 event so there is that).  And if I get a 1/4” of ice as their map shows that little red dallop over me, I’ll eat my hat.  I’m still learning the local climo around Haywood but to me if I torch at mid levels then there is no way the higher peaks 1-2k feet above me in elevation are gonna stay all snow either.

1 minute ago, Dunkman said:

I always thought the weather flow tempest looked really neat but I don’t have one.

I really like my tempest after about 20 days of having it up.  I do need to raise it tto tge 6-8’ range they suggest to get better wind readings however.

34 with flurries here

Met beat me to the punch, I’ll take my 16-20” and head to the cashier.

2 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

37° with snow flying again in Wolf.

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Had a quick graupel shower earlier when I got home.  Clouds thickening and building back to the west now.  Hoping to squeeze out at inch tonight down here if lucky.

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The super clipper of 2003 was a gem here. Expecting an inch or less and woke up to 8 to 9 from a surprise lee trough. 

That was my senior year if it’s the storm I’m thinking of. We got out at 11 and my parents  house is closer to Hickory north and west up near the lake than where the high school is, so I left school with it just starting to snow and got home to a couple inches already on the ground. Ended up around 9” too I think and the bottom dropped out that night to single digits and it was a frozen solid mess. ‘93 is the gold standard in totality but ‘88 (from stories I’ve heard, too young to remember) ‘96 and that storm my senior year rank up there for Hickory.  Another sleeper for total inches was a storm in February while I was in college, I’m thinking ‘04.  Came home from Raleigh just to enjoy the aftermath.  That was a foot plus but didn’t hang around long, temps shot up.

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yep December 18 2009! Was before my time on the board but I had 2 feet in my front yard. Only lost power for 6 hours. They had to get a front end loader to clear the roads out in Fines Creek area because it was waist deep especially near Max Patch. 

What’s the all-timer for populated portions of Haywood? I’m thinking it has to be March ‘30 (I think) I was reading about recently. 30”+ Fines Creek and Crabtree if I remember correctly. 

I’m swinging by the store when I get back after lunch, need to grab tire chains (that I was gonna get way back in October before my Wyoming trip, where I desperately needed them) so I can get up and down the mountain once I’m off the pavement and then run the generator between now and Saturday night along with some possible dead limb and tree cleanup to save myself a possible headache.  All that with moving some stuff on Saturday morning and early afternoon sandwiched in between. But I wouldn’t have it any other way 

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Black Mountain will get crushed, the lower totals usually aren't until you get closer to the French Broad valley and Asheville. Obviously Hickory should do pretty well but a much higher chance of mixing with sleet

Yea, based on everything up to this point it’s a gamble of stay home for an all-timer in Hickory if all snow (top 5-10 even if it mixes) or go to Black Mountain for top 5 event there with an outside chance at an all timer. Can’t go wrong either way IMO.

4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Hopefully the gfs calmed some nerves 

There’s not enough lithium in the world to calm the nerves of the main board RDU weenies.  I lean climatology at all times so I’ve been digging the trend for what all our pieces of energy do.

5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Translation....models are in fairly good agreement for a winter storm, especially for the mtns. We're gonna watch it and punt to the next shift. Don't want to look bad putting out a watch 72 hours in advance. 

I can’t even remember the last watch they’ve issued, don’t think I’ve seen one in the 3 winters I’ve lived up here. 

2 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

64 Special incoming. From Hendo to Brevard up to Toxaway, Cashiers, Highlands and Franklin. I can see 15+ in some of the higher elevations around there. 

Those 6k foot peaks running the border of southern Haywood are gonna get rocked too.  Would love to be on Richland or Black Balsam during the storm.

2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

If the euro is correct I wouldn't be surprised to see 18" totals around highlands cashiers

Franklin to Toxaway corridor is gonna jackpot with the favorded area in the border counties having to play catch-up with backside NWFS to get close to their totals IMO

7 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

If the Euro jumps on board. I’m all in on a good snow happening!

I think you a guys around the 64 corridor (Clay to Transylvania counties) are sitting pretty for a 6+ snowfall no matter how this plays out.

Toss it. Me, Met and Maggie Ace  only get 16+ 

I’ll take the 1-2” my house gets and run with it

Had a low just below 16 this morning.  Liking the look of actual winter in the mountains ahead of us. 

4 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Ladies and Gentleman, we have a bomb at 0z

She’s a beaut Clark!  Take it to the bank, I’m trying to move some more stuff this weekend so prepare for some type of weather. 

Got down to 18 at 7:00 then rose from there, 31 now.  

Hey @Met1985, dusting to an inch in our area of Haywood? Looks like my place saw it drop down to just below 15 last night.  

My Weather station shows it’s dropped from 43 to 34 in a little under an hour and a half, still dropping too.  Had some flurries out here in Tulsa this morning, cold and blustery day. Hope you guys back home see a couple inches at the least. 

18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Had a low of 12 this morning under the fresh snowpack.  The ground temps will take a big hit this week.

Think there was a bit of an inversion going on last night when I was looking at temps after getting to my hotel.  Noticed while it was 20 down in town it was 28 on Lynn Lowry.  According to my stats, got down to 19 at 11 pm and then it was a slow steady rise from then on with 28 at daybreak. Showing 41 now.  Like the trends on the models, might be able to make it home Tuesday to some snow still on the ground.