psuhoffman

Here it is illustrated a different way. 
@brooklynwx99

Look at X and Y… it doesn’t matter Z is the same 

if

ridge X trough Y equals trough Z

AND

trough X ridge Y STILL equals trough Z

What pac long wave config doesn’t end up with a wave amplifying there??? 
 

or as  @Ji said “what are we even doing here?”  

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

Aifs obviously has a warm bias. It will “learn”

We haven’t 

Let me add to the last point…the waves will eventually progress east. But it doesn’t matter if they keep amplifying too much in the west FIRST and pumping heat ridges in front of them.  

@brooklynwx99 @Ji  @Terpeast

This is an even better example of what I was talking about yesterday. 

This is before Ji’s “it has to be snow” wave. The ridging in front is the problem, ignoring the freaking crazy 50/50. But I get it there is a horrible air mass in front. So I’ll let that one go…

Bit focus on the pacific and west coast progression here on this loop. That next wave should progress east.  Look at the long wave pattern. That Ji wave is being absorbed into the 50/50 about to strengthen that.  There is a perfect pac longewave configuration. 

But look what happened. Everything else in the pac progresses. The trough and ridge behind the wave move east. But the wave doesn’t. It’s dogging down and cutting off in the west and look it’s pumping another ridge ahead of it that’s going to link with the west based block and…we know the end. 
 

@brooklynwx99yesterday I showed this same thing on a gfs run and you said we just had to give it time and wait for the next wave to progress east but that was just an illusion because the run ended there. The next wave isn’t going to progress east either. The wavelengths in the west just adjust, broaden it shorten, as the waves amplify and get stuck in the west. 
 

I’m not interested in arguments if it’s happening. I’ve seen this time and again lately. I am interested in hypothesizing WHY that’s happening.  The wavelengths to the west of these waves out west do not always support them digging into the west. But even when the pac pattern SHOULD kick the waves east the flow just compresses. 
 

My theory is that it’s not just the pac. That there is also downstream resistance in the flow. Maybe from the warmer than normal gulf and Atlantic. Also if the waves are coming in off the pacific more juiced up they could be amplifying sooner which could cause them to want to cut off in the mountain west due to feedback. 
 

I don’t KNOW. I’m just thinking wave physics and trying to figure out why something that shouldn’t based on the upstream wavelengths keeps happening.  What’s weird to me is that no one else is talking about this. Just accepting it with no discussion of WHY!  

1 hour ago, Ji said:

this has to be snow

 

It’s 

not 

even

close 

but it has an absolutely perfect long wave pattern with a -nao and +pna which helps us get a 45* rainstorm instead of a 55* one!  

41 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I was looking around for that easy-to-use NCEP reanalysis site that you use.  You gave me the link to it one time but I have lost it.  Can you give it again?

Daily 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

monthly 

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

Gonna rain 

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

then wtf are we doing here?

I’m tracking my April ski season in VT.  Dunno what you’re doing. 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

then wtf are we doing here?

We used to think the same thing about the poor schmucks in NC or SC that would track patterns and we knew even if everything went perfect it probably still wasn’t going to snow there. We’re those schmucks now. 

@Ji even this isn’t enough to get snow even close to us. Other than above 3000 ft the snow is all north of the PA/NY line!  

The coldest high (not during a rainstorm) between April 15 and May 15 in 2019 was 62 degrees.  Most days were in the 70s.  I think the -NAO ruining our springs has been a bigger narrative than it has a reality.  

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

we just need time to cool the source regions like we did in Late December/early January. Be patient! March 21st is 22 days away!

That run takes us through March 15.  And the whole continent is still torched...it took 2 weeks to fix that problem in mid winter...what is your timeline here?  

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

19 and 22 were very chilly due to blocking April 15th to May 15th

But you are in CT, that's way different... its often 10-20 degrees colder there in the spring with backdoor cold fronts...we don't get those this far south.  I am not complaining about a sunny 60 degree day, and that's about as bad as it gets due to blocking down here once past mid April.  

41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

19 and 22 were very chilly due to blocking April 15th to May 15th

The coldest day at BWI between April 15 and May 15 in 2022 that wasn't during precipitation was one day with a high of 58.  The next coldest was a high of 60.  Most of that month had highs in the 60's or 70s.  There were several legit chilly days with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s but they were all days when it was raining.  I don't care what the temp is in a rainstorm, I'm not outside anyways.  

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Im still hanging on to March 18-21 1958....the EPS is going to get us there

well it has a -NAO, MONSTER 50/50, perfect pacific, central pac trough, PNA ridge... just don't look at the temps TORCH lol  

#itjustdoesntmatter 

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

end of EPS showing a much improved Pacific but canada is still a torch

Are you ok?  Do you need help?  

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Do April 15th to May 15th

First... you know you can make those maps yourself...just google daily or month climate composites.  Second...by April 15 onward its so warm that it doesn't matter...-NAO or not so long as its a sunny day we get pretty warm.  Maybe its 60 instead of 70 but its still a really nice day.  Its late March and early April that a -NAO can really make it miserable out for a little while.  

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the cold air on the map is pitiful man

I hadn't noticed 

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is the euro taking this? 

Pittsburg 

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That was the year SNE got Nemo. I hope one day I can experience what they did under that >50dbz death band.

Or I can just go to the Sierras. Or to Buffalo

I was in that band... one of many storms I've chased over the years.  Helped someone driving some 80s oldsmobile near Yale who had no business being on the roads get unstuck twice only to watch him immediate drive into the next snow drift lol.  Had to dig myself off the highway in New Haven because none of the exits were plowed yet.  Was stuck there for a couple days.  

But...I actually didn't find the band itself all that impressive.  It was very wet, and windy, and while it was snowing incredibly hard it didn't look as aesthetically pleasing as some other heave snow events I've witnessed.  The heaviest sustained snow I've ever experienced still remains the first few hours of the Feb 10 2010 storm here...not the CCB the following day but that WAA band that set up the night before and was mostly a mix down near DC and Baltimore...we had this crazy convective band sitting over us here for 3 hours and got about a foot of snow from it.  But it was not windy and just cold enough so it was HUGE flakes and looked even harder then it was...not that 3-4" an hour wasn't heavy snow.  

32 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I could have sworn that 2012-2013 was a Pac Puke year.  I seem to remember that being the year I learned about the joys of the Alaska vortex.

19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I'm smoothing over a lot of months, but in my mind we've been through a never-ending torch since spring 2010, with just two pauses: a brief one in winter 2017/18, and a longer 15-month period from January 2014 through March 2015. That 15-month period impresses me the most nowadays, it's like something from over a century ago. How did we manage that amidst the secular warming trend? Could we ever do it again, I wonder?

However, 2011 was actually cold, we just got miller b'd a few times on all the big storms.  2012-2013 was a torch here but legit COLD out west...I dont mean cold like the last 8 years where its just "colder" but legit cold.  So for our specific location on the means you're right its been mostly a snowless torch since 2010 with just a short interlude...but if you pull back its been since the last super nino in 2016 that this "warm all over at our latitude" has been a troubling issue.  

12 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I'm smoothing over a lot of months, but in my mind we've been through a never-ending torch since spring 2010, with just two pauses: a brief one in winter 2017/18, and a longer 15-month period from January 2014 through March 2015. That 15-month period impresses me the most nowadays, it's like something from over a century ago. How did we manage that amidst the secular warming trend? Could we ever do it again, I wonder?

Even with 2014-2015 DC is averaging the same climo wrt temps and snowfall as central NC since 2010.  It's averaging the same climo as SC since 2016.  

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

eps really wants to tank the NAO

 

Something that's been bothering me though the last few days...the EPS wants to retrograde the NAO ridge very quickly and it ends up centered pretty far south in Canada...that used to work, but in recent years when that happens it's just been linking up with the mid latitude ridges which neutralizes the suppressive benefits of the -NAO.  Just something to look out for here.  On top of the fact its going to be late March by the time cold makes its way east.  

9 hours ago, Ji said:

lol most on Twitter are blaming the strong east based nino

that place is awful

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

It was basin wide

definitely, I was just referencing that by the raw numbers when I peeked at the different enso region numericals and the modoki index, which I know is imperfect, by the raw numbers it ended up slightly more central pac based than the projections back in November that I saw.  I don't think that was why we failed.