psuhoffman

Those MJO plots are not as clear cut as some people think. A COD can either indicate a weak wave, or as in this case, it can indicate conflicting waves from different regions. I think the combination we are heading into isnt the worst though. So long as we get some forcing in the western PAC and out towards the Dateline and the wave in the IO stays out of the Maritime Continent...we should be at least "OK" on that front.

Me thinks we are about to get some eyecandy at the tail end of the GFS op run. At least its something to look at.

This is just an educated guess and my opinion...but back in the early 2000s before there was a plethora of good expert weather discussion available online he was one of the main providers. I also think he was less of an extremist hype machine back then in his accuweather days. Don't get me wrong, he was still too extreme, he would do this back and forth video with Ken Reaves and he would always lose on their little competitions because he would go too cold or too snowy and Ken was more reserved. But he still wasn't as bad as he has become since. On top of that...his constant hype and spin gets old. At one point several years ago he actually said..."its going to be an inch, and it will be the worst inch of snow ever". It might work on some people for awhile... but eventually you figure out his act. But he is actually still fairly popular in the NYC region. But imo that is because he over forecasts snow like crazy...but NYC has been on the greatest 15 year snowfall heater in their history so for them his forecasts havent been nearly as awful. He probably still over forecasts snow even there...which is hard since they have been getting way above normal snow most years...but he isnt as far off. His huge error here is often including our area in storms that are clearly going to our north. On top of that he also alienates some people personally. He takes some really ignorant stances (IMO) and digs in. And I don't just mean wrt global warming. He has said some really derogatory things about teachers, public servants, scientists, and public figures. Lastly...and I can only speak for myself...but I can excuse a lot of the hype and snow weenie stuff...but IMO he flat out lies and tells people what he things will get him clicks and subscriptions from snow weenies and I cannot accept that lack of integrity. I have seen several specific examples of his blatant dishonesty. Some are indisputable like one year when he used the snowfall recorded at IAD to verify his forecast for DCA. Other times...its simply that I know he isn't totally stupid, and he says things that completely contradict things he has said or that common sense dictates he knows...in order to spin a forecast into a snowy one.

The IO forcing isn't "ideal" but given that look in the Pacific I still think the whole effect of forcing is a net benefit. A reduction in the standing wave in the central IO would help though.

@losetoa6 it’s a crazy wild ride and I enjoyed it. Probably need to see it again to take in all in, so much happens.

Only thing I feel confident in is that we should ignore JB tweets. The only thing worse than his social commentary is his weather commentary.

@Ji 6z gefs doubling down on building a pretty nice look in Jan

Split flow...hopefully were on the right side. That is one unusual looking map It won’t look like that. That’s got to be the product of competing camps within the ensemble. My guess is either there will be more ridging across Canada (as hinted but muted by a camp that doesn’t go that way) and if so a deeper trough over the CONUS. Or there won’t be and there won’t be a trough in the east at all. You’re seeing the mean of two divergent permutations on that map.

Jb comparing it to the period right before feb......2010 Of course he is... It bears some small resemblance to the pattern a couple weeks before as it was just developing, not right before. And saying that is irresponsible because all people will hear is “big snow coming” when even if that’s right the pattern might not progress the same as January 2010 did and in reality we could get that type of block and probably wouldn’t get that outcome again. It would likely snow but I bet if we got that pattern 100 times only a few went that well. That was a combo of epic pattern AND crazy stupid luck.

Better than ok hopefully it’s also better than typical 15 day forecasts

10:30. I’ll be dead tomorrow but oh well. I liked last Jedi but I do get why some didn’t. But I can just enjoy a movie without letting my own expectations get in the way. I also think it was good as it’s own movie but didn’t work as the middle of a trilogy. Left the plot in ruins and killed off the big bad. J.J. has some work to do to stick a landing imo. I know it gets mixed reviews but the criticisms I’m hearing I mostly roll my eyes at. “It’s campy and unrealistic and has fan service and the plot is too busy”. Umm yea it’s Star Wars. Duh. Those kinds of reviews from people who think all movies have to be artsy don’t bother me.

On my way to white marsh to see it with co-workers.

I won’t complain if someone does!

Oh im not taking he op gfs seriously, was just trying to stay on the reapers good side by throwing him a bone. I still doubt we ever truly torch. The Atlantic thus early can’t offset the pac enough to support an easy frozen event but it’s hard to really torch with the continuous stream of 50/50 lows. We will have some AN days for sure. But as for our snow prospects, as we head into January the Atlantic pattern that seems persistent becomes more and more likely to create a setup that can support snow. We might not need a pattern change as much as we just neee climo to make the pattern we have more favorable. It also wouldn’t take much adjustment in the epo region to suddenly turn this into a good pattern. It’s not hopeless heading into Jan imo.

Maybe we turned a corner. If we keep the Atlantic in our favor climo starts to favor us more and more after Xmas. How many runs does the gfs have to hold?

You pick a funny time to pick on NWP when right now the EPS absolutely NAILED this pattern from 15 days away.

Anything it shows past day 10 can flip on a dime so I am not overly concerned. On top of that...there continue to be very workable signs on the Atlantic side. Basically if we can find a way to get that TPV out of there (and that is also something that can flip quickly on guidance, they suck at modeling the high latitudes in general that far out) things would get right pretty quickly. Right now all guidance stubbornly wants to park that PV there and just say "no soup for you" into the extended range. At some point that will move and if we still have a workable atlantic we will see. Mid January seems like forever right now but we have had plenty of good winters where the bulk of our snowfall fell from Jan 15 on. If we start getting into mid January without much hope in sight...that is when I will begin to alter my expectations. There have been the rare Feb/Mar climo saves like 1960 and 2015, and it isnt extremely rare to go into February skunked and then get at least some snow or one decent warning event in Feb or Mar...but it becomes VERY unlikely we beat climo if we get to mid January and the pattern still looks like puke out to Feb. We are still 2/3 weeks away from that so for now I am patient, but I have a feeling my patience is going to be tested.

It's time We’re probably in a bad place for a long time (2-3 weeks maybe) but it’s way too early in winter to be tossing the season.

HM referring to the TPV retreating north instead of dropping due to the current NAO block. That misfortune event leads to the wrecked pattern the next 2 weeks and wasted NAO block. Tpv pulling into NW Canada loads the +EPO and fails to reload the 50/50, NAO feedback loop. There was an alternate universe where that drops and feeds into the 50/50 which in turn pumps and reloads the NAO and without the added epo trough the western trough cuts under and we have a much different outcome. Instead... puke. Sometimes (usually) it just doesn’t go our way.

There is absolutely nothing positive in that run. Total PUKE from start to finish.

@mappy CONGRATS!!!

@frd We've had plenty of cold/snow absent MJO help when its either a weak wave or waves in conflicting positions with no clear forcing signal. We have been in that situation for quite a while and look to remain in that state for a while longer. I think for now we have to look elsewhere for clear pattern signals. One thing I find annoying wrt some of the twitter talking heads...a lot of them seem to have "a thing" (the strat, the MJO, ice/snowcover, enso) and focus on that at the expense of all others sometimes, EVEN when there is no clear signal from their little pet project and other drivers are clearly driving the bus at that time.

There are no signs the MJO is going to clearly help or hurt in the near future. For the most part indications are it continues to have waves in conflicting positions with no clear dominant phase signal.

Yes the red x is me...I live on a shared drive spur off Ebbvale, up on top of the ridge that overlooks Manchester. About 1050 ft elevation.

all the hot air you are full of really hurts your chances in marginal setups. Regent Heat Island Effect is powerful