psuhoffman
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Everything posted by psuhoffman
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So much for the torch
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Yes 850 mb is usually about 5000 ft so most of the mountain west is above that level.
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Here comes the real HECS crashing into the west jokes aside it’s a loaded pattern.
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I remember. We were in a Nina with no blocking. Did you really buy that 72 hour 36” overrunning look? Is there any prescedence for that? We did get the cold though. It was a frigid week with a couple minor snows. Typical Nina cold pattern.
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Oh yea, I’m laughing now but if it plays out that way again I’ll be hurting for sure.
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The euro is trending that way but still squashing the wave out west. Maybe it’s real, maybe not. I’m just enjoying the ride. The eps actually caved to the gfs progression though mostly. Historically a 60/40 compromise leaving 60 euro is good. This time it was 60/40 GFS it seems.
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Do they really need an extra push?
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Lol a lobe of the 50/50 vortex rotates down on top of it and suppresses it south of us. Slides east southeast from TN. That’s what happened last December. And I remember when guidance first started picking up on it at range we said “no way will that be right from this range”. I am not predicting anything like that again. Just laughing at the depiction. This was a good run imo. I’m happy.
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That’s what I want to see...when the rain snow line starts out down in NC it gives us a lot more wiggle room.
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There’s the cold!!!
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More confluence to the north on gfs for the Dec 22 threat. High stronger and better positioned. I suspect a colder solution then 12/18z.
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It could happen...we’ve seen perfect h5 presentations lead to rain before. January 2016 we had one before the blizzard. But the antecedent airmass was really bad then. This will have some cold in front. I am skeptical of the warm solution with that track. I can remember a few times mid winter when from range guidance saw a warmer profile with a southern track system then was reality. We will see.
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For the record I think you have the perfect balance of freedom with basic ground rules and decency standards here. Thanks for that! You and all the mods.
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@NorthArlington101 @JakkelWx One last thing wrt 33... posting content that originated on 33andrain “could” be a copyright violation if the creator does not consider it public or fair use. However I made sure all of the posts I made were content that did not originate on 33. The creator has proprietary rights not 33. If there were any violations they would be equally guilty.
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Oh I wasn’t trying not to get caught. Don’t really care if they ban me if that is their reaction towards collaborative sharing of information. What I love most about this place is the free exchange of information and discourse. I have no interest in being a part of a group with that attitude.
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I stumbled onto this tidbit
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Interesting point here
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Seems there is some interesting strat happenings. Not sure where I found this.
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It’s not their intellectual property so it’s not a legal matter. But they can ban you since it’s a private forum. But since this is by far my main home and I care not a lick about that...
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Oh I am definitely doing it!!!!
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Seems someone is a little full of themselves.
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Euro caved to gfs on the tpv sliding east vs retrograde west next week. But this run it dropped the whole thing into New England and squashed any storm threat. Lol
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There are only a few examples but winter months with a descending QBO were fairly blocky once below 5 or so. One reason I’ve not been overly concerned with the slow descent. As long as we got close to 0 by January I felt it was fine.
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One thing is showing, the high latitudes are not averse to blocking this year. This will be the second nice NAO block and we’ve had 2 nice EPO blocks already this cold season.
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Yea the gefs just accelerated the process of getting towards a good look. Cuts the pac trough under the ridge quicker. Caved to the euro there too. If the gefs is close to right here suppresses is a way bigger threat than a rainstorm around the 22nd. if we just get that pna ridge about 100 miles west that’s a classic HECS look actually.
