psuhoffman

How far are you from Snowshoe?

The Feb 78 storm was a County Divider in Carroll. The southwestern most locations only got about 5” and the northeastern most locations near Manchester got about 15”. Westminster was around 8”. The back edge of the wrap around deform developed just in time to clip places northeast of Westminster.

@showmethesnow I feel like the eps and gefs are nearly identical long range if we account for their tendencies this year. A compromise is likely, and frankly wouldn’t be a bad look. The eps wasn’t far from a good look past day 10.

You’re making me want to plan my annual ski trip. With the deluge out there I’m thinking early January maybe this year. Torn between hitting up Snowmass/aspen or Solitide/Snowbasin in Utah. I’ve yet to adequately explore those areas. I love off piste and tree skiing. I know snowmass has some excellent stuff off the cirque and burnt mnt glades. Salt lake is much easier access for a long weekend trip. I might just wait until a week before and let the snow conditions decide for me.

Ok if you’re new here it’s not fair to poke fun, it’s just that we all know the euro is superior to the gfs. It’s not a secret, despite the fact some (DT ...clears throat) act like it is. No one here worships the gfs. That said the euro isn’t so numerically superior that you can just rip and read it as gospel. It can have spectacular fails also. And when the preponderance of evidence is against it usually it is wrong. Additionally it has its own biases and tendencies that need to be taken into account. Historically a 60/40 compromise (weighted towards the euro) verifies best. It also takes skill and knowledge of both models tendencies to predict how the compromise will take place. So in essence you are right the euro should get more attention. But not at the expense of all other guidance and it still needs skilled human interpretation. And most here know all that.

Over under on how many more times @Mr. Kevin tells us we should pay more attention to the euro this winter?

Almost a total cave to the euro on the Dec 22 storm. Gfs went from the idea of sliding the upper low across the south to cutting it through Minnesota in one run. It still holds onto some stj wave but mostly it was a cave to the euro.

I agree with the rainstorm diagnostic but I do think we are seeing legitimate blocking. We never saw anything like this last year when any negative NAO was purely a transient ridge just passing though. This is a legit block. And the only reason it’s isnt more long lived is the tpv splits and it gets absorbed into the full latitude ridge. But ridging over the top persists and if the jet cuts under it would be a legit block again. We had one other nice block a couple weeks ago and it lead to a perfect track upper low but the antecedent airmass was crap. Blocks won’t just sit stationary over GL for long stretches. The best though wax and wane and oscillate around reforming and persist for weeks or months. If there isn’t a hostile factor to destructively interfere they can create a feedback loop where storms are forced under through the 50/50 domain and the wave breaking there feeds the NAO ridge. 50/50s don’t usually sit forever either. They have to move out or storms would get suppressed and nothing would ever turn up the coast. But with good blocking the next system takes its place and on the means there is a net negative there throughout. The pac is running major interference. If we repeat the blocking later we should be ok.

I think some block out that fact because they don’t like March snow. I would prefer snow earlier in winter too. Ideally we get bombed around Xmas and it stays cold and on the ground for weeks. But I know my climo and I’ll taje March snow over no snow.

And the see saw continues. We are probably splitting hairs, but I doubt a prolonged true torch. I do think we will have to suffer a period of pacific air intrusion. Several days at least. But the mid latitude pattern has been progressive and fluid. It’s also quickly snapped back each time or deviated. I doubt a hostile regime locks in for a long time. I also like the fact we keep getting some kind of high latitude blocking the last 6 weeks. The tropical forcing has been a double edged sword. The standing wave in the Indian Ocean has muted attempts by waves to enter the hostile maritime continent region. But it’s also kept forcing centered on a region not really great for us either. We’ve ended up stuck in meh. As that releases we may have to suffer a warm phase at some point but the SST configuration really does favor central pacific forcing and I have a hunch that we will spend at least some of core winter in favorable tropical forcing phases which should give us a decent pac pattern. If the propensity for occasions of high lat blocking continues I am banking we line this up at some point. All it takes are a couple hits to get us to climo. We can do that with a good 2 weeks! That’s why I’m somewhat optimistic on things right now.

I saw that, and I also know the NAO is most correlated with cold in our region later in winter...so that does not shock me. It also makes sense that in December when the depth of cold is not really established yet, and the warmer waters nearby still can make marginal setups difficult and promote southeast ridging... having a perfect mid latitude trough/ridge axis is probably the most important feature to overcome those issues. But overall our december snow climo just sucks. Its barely a snow month here. We had a really nice run that was in the not so distant past and so its hard to think of it as NOT but in reality December is pretty hostile towards snow here.

I respectfully disagree. The other weather boards I know of all have way stricter rules than here. I AM HERE for almost the exact opposite reason...the free exchange of ideas and information here with only a slight modicum of rules. Seriously what rules are making people feel so oppressed? What am I missing? People can post almost anything they want short of vulgarity and personal attacks, they just have to do it in the correct thread to keep things from being a confusing mess. Almost every other forum I know of has similar, and MORE strict rules. And the ones that don't are a hot mess of nonsense posts that are unreadable. You are free to disagree with me and I am free to disagree with you. And it's not personal. I have no problems with you, or anyone else that doesn't like the rules at all. I have no problems with you saying I am full of crap and these rules stifle people. I am not trying to change your mind. I just honestly don't understand why some have a problem with the very minimal guidelines here...and where you are talking about that is a more free and open environment.

Mostly agree except that the hostile pac pattern is timing up perfectly with a great blocking period. I think the blocking will likely recycle again this winter and so I am not that bothered BUT...but it is frustrating that we have had a generally ok PAC for a month but just when the Atlantic gets right the pacific sh!ts the bed.

slight differences on how they handle the energy crashing into California. GFS takes it across and south of us. Euro cuts the upper low through Minnesota and to the south shore of Hudson Bay. Minor details.

If that is where we are going... I don't mind waiting.

Is the storm occluded? That is not an uncommon occurrence once a system occludes to have mini vortices, sometimes centered on convection, pinwheeling around within the broader circulation.

I agree the GFS is rushing it. I do think there is a good chance that is where we are heading. The things I am seeing right now look more like the precursors to some of the better analogs I looked at back in the fall...not the worse ones. I think that might be what we are seeing come January 10th...GFS is just rushing things as usual. We've seen that before....many times.

I am NOT disagreeing with you. I am favoring that progression. I agree with you totally. I should repeat that 10 more times so this next statement isn't misinterpreted... but the Euro/EPS did have one run yesterday where it caved to the GFS before quickly reverting. It still didn't really support a storm because it was significantly weaker with the energy ejecting from the trough in the PAC and so there simply was no storm in the southern stream, but it was very GFS like on the progression of the TPV in Canada and the resulting pattern over the CONUS. But it was just one run and it then reverted back. That said...the fact that it had that one hiccup means the GFS isnt totally off on a crazy lunatic tangent...the possibility is there and the euro sees it, both in a few divergent members and one one run where the majority saw it that way. So I guess I am saying there is a chance...but I would HIGHLY favor the progression the euro and most other guidance has been insistent on with the majority. The vast preponderance of evidence is on that side. But I don't take anything for granted in this game.

Someday all our dreams will come to be Someday in a world where the UKMET actually comes to be Maybe not in time for you and me But someday at Christmastime

hmm except the ggem just took a big step towards the GFS...at least in terms of that energy out west ejecting and becoming a storm...its going to be a rain storm probably...but its there not squashed this run. Well... usually when the major globals are in disagreement some kind of compromise is what happens. In this case the compromise (at least right now as it appears) is heading towards the GFS being more correct about a stronger ejection of energy from the trough out west but the euro/ggem being more correct about the retrogression of the TPV and the ridging across the CONUS. The end result would be a storm...but a rainstorm.

The biggest difference wrt the 12z GFS dec 22 threat is that it suppressed the upper energy well south of the region creating a disconnect with the cold air source. If that upper energy traversed closer to our area it would likely have been a similar outcome to 6z. That wasn't a cold look by any means but just cold enough. But it doesn't matter as everything is trending towards the idea of retrograding the TPV west which pumps way too much ridging in the central CONUS which will likely end up squashing the system like the euro and ggem show.

But you are perfectly capable of adding legit analysis to your post and you choose not too. Like...it’s a mirage because... ...When was the gfs nailed a big storm when it was totally on its own. ...the gefs doesn’t really support ...even on the op gfs the ridge axis out west isn’t ideal and it only accomplishes that solution through a crazy amplification that is probably due to its bias.

One frustrating thing living in the DC/Baltimore Metro area, and I totally understand it having lived there, and southern NJ southeast of Philly which is in much the same boat for a long time...you are so so so close to regions to the north where snow is common in winter. I mean people to our north might complain when they get 30" instead of 50" or 40" instead of 60" in a season but the bottom line is 90% of winters (with the rare whole continent skunk years like 2002 as exceptions) the difference for them is snowy or more snowy. But we are just south of the zone where snow is common and normal in winter. We are close enough that in a year where the jet is suppressed in some way we can end up sharing in their glory and get a snowy winter. And in a "typical" winter we can get lucky a couple times and get some snow. But for long long stretches we are so close to glory and have to watch others a stones throw away enjoy snow while we are 33 and rain. I totally get the frustration. But that is the reality of where DC and Baltimore is located. Their climo. I was so frustrated by it I choose to commute over and hour each way everyday so that I can live just far enough north...with the aid of some elevation...to eek myself into the southern edge of the climate zone where snow is more common, so that even in a bad or typical year I at least can expect some decent snow. But I have to suffer sitting in traffic and wasting hours of my life everyday for that...so imagine how frustrated I must have been by my climo when I was near DC! ETA: for the record there are other things I like about living here...its absolutely beautiful, I have a view you can't get near the cities, I am close to recreational activities I enjoy, its cooler in summer and I can't stand the oppressive heat and humidity... so its not JUST the snow...but I won't lie the snow is a BIG BIG part of it.

It’s my fault. Yesterday the EPS and op flipped to the gfs idea of the tpv phasing into the 50/50 and I said it caved. It immediately reverted.

I’ll see what I can copy from 33