psuhoffman

I predict you won’t be satisfied either way

That was a statement that if this indeed is only transient (which is still unclear) it won’t do is much good. We may get a favorable period before it breaks down. But we are wasting a week of a pretty good H5 look first.

One problem when the preceding and dominant pattern is complete garbage puke like it has been recently is that transient decent patterns do us little good since there is no cold air within 1000 miles of us when the pattern changes. By the time we recover a workable temperature profile in the conus the pattern is breaking down.

Build a 5000 ft house and hang out on your roof.

Do you think we will hit-35 Howard? It’s gonna move northeast from WV through NC.

Been doing family holiday stuff and catching up on work and didn’t post but the other day when I glanced at the actual eps members it appeared to me the breakdown was more due to a significant but minority camp of solutions that re-established the Nina pattern and went crazy with a +NAO and conus ridge. That camp was washing out the other members that still had a more favorable look. I rarely have time to dig that deep anymore but the mean cam sometimes be misleading. That said I’m guarded about mid December due to hints the mjo wants to amplify near the MC. That could return is to the Nina puke pattern. What I’m interested in seeing is if that is transient or locks in.

Unfortunately only Snowshoe is likely to be open before mid December. They are opening Dec 4 but don’t expect much terrain. They have to build base and it’s been too warm. 10-20” of powder won’t help too much if there is no base down on the trail under it. But if you just want to see some fresh snow and teach the tikes on the bunny hill that could be a good option. The other mid atl hills with less resources for snowmaking will likely take even longer to get up and running.

Just curious...we panic when it seems like we might get no snow at all. Do they panic at the first hints they might not get 100” this season? lol

It’s a long shot but the para Gfs 0z evolution is probably the only shot at snow here from later this week. Keeping the system split and having the lead wave pass then amplify and pull on some cold for the STJ system right behind it. The wrapped up bomb idea has no chance to work out since there is no cold in front and an amplifying phased system will end up near the thermal gradient.

Incredibly anomalous events usually are the result of equally anomalous larger scale pattern drivers that guidance can more easily identify at range.

Anyone putting emotional investment in a storm 150h out with that kind of convoluted h5 progression deserves whatever heartache they get.

We have had some good blocking periods in strong Nina’s. They aren’t always wall to wall trash. One way this winter could turn out ok would be if the enso suppresses the strong MC convection we have suffered from recently due to the IO and western PAC SSTs, but at the same time the rare (for a Nina) warmth in the northeast PAC short circuits the typical Nina response wrt the central pac ridge and subsequent western Canada trough. Not saying I believe that’s the most likely result as of now. Just one plausible hypothetical way this winter ends up a fond memory. I’m skeptical of anything long range honestly. Nothing in our records correlates to this level of warmth, especially in the SSTs. There is a lot of volatility in previously thought to be stable pattern drivers like the QBO. Enso correlations have been less reliable. We’ve seen some odd combinations. Lots of extremes. It’s obvious that overall odds skew warm in any given period. But that doesn’t mean we won’t ever get cold snowy periods and I personally feel way less confident in predicting when and how they come very far in advance given the current state of things. I won’t speak for others, I am sure there are those way more skilled than I, but I do not have much confidence in anything super long range either way right now. I don’t mind that though. Makes things more exciting imo.

The MJO living in high amp warm phases waa a big part of our problems recently. One positive of a strong Nina is typically that suppresses the MJO.

Kids keep asking about snow. Might take them to black water falls for a day.

Some of the Gefs members really amplify the mjo wave over the MC. It’s sort of a 50/50 split. But either way we will be getting some destructive tropical forcing mid Dec. How much and how long likely determine where we go long term.

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and has a wonderful holiday season. It wasn’t as crowded as usual but we enjoyed it all the same. The kids got to join us at the big table this year!

Long range and especially seasonal is getting increasingly difficult because we are seeing some influencers configured in ways we’ve never seen before. The pacific sst is completely out of wack and the QBO has been behaving odd the last several years. Add in warning across the board and historical analogs are less useful. I am guarded but getting somewhat optimistic this ninoesque pattern is real. It’s pretty consistent across all guidance and getting closer everyday. It’s being driven by IO convection and the retrograde of the AK vortex, both of which is well underway. But I think 2 factors determine if we end up with a December that produces and doesn’t just tease. We’ve had some decent patterns in Dec recently that did us no good. The first 10 days I think might be a challenge due to the lack of any true cold air source. The recent pattern has prevented any cold from building on our side of the pole. It will take a while to fix that and initially the ridge in Canada is a bit too far southeast to allow cold into the equation. That may change as the pna ridge retrogrades in response to the AK vortex retrogression. In the meantime we’re dealing with a crap airmass. It could work with a perfect track and timing but it could be frustrating if things don’t come together perfectly. The last factor is what happens after Dec 10. I think the MJO will give a big clue as we get closer. There are signs it may finally try to propagate through the Maritime Continent mid December. Those are the warm phases for us. However...I’ve found that when you get a weak or fast wave through phases in conflict with the base state it doesn’t have as much impact. That’s why some weak MJO waves in cold phases didn’t save us the last few years and it’s why some warm phases didn’t kill us in colder years. As we get closer if we see signs the mjo is racing through the MC at a weak amplitude that is a very good sign this pattern may persist. If we start to see signs it wants to stall and amplify while near the MC that would hint this was just a very temporary blip and the base state to the winter pattern is likely to be hostile. It’s too soon to say right now. We will start to get hints soon. Happy Thanksgiving

I am definitely in on a conference

1996 lol There were also a couple Nina's early in the 1900s that judging by the statistics definitely did not behave like what we consider a "typical" nina today. NOT saying that is what is happening here....yet. Many have pointed out the enso north pacific sst combo is very unusual so maybe a canonical nina isn't in the works. Way too early to draw any conclusions though.

It's possible I missed some of that...once the big ugly pattern set it I kinda knew it was over and so I checked out pretty much. I would glance once in a while to see if there was any hope but there were days and days that would go bye without me taking more than a quick glance. But what I did see was more bad than good even out at range.

This look With that SW-NE ridge axis across Canada centered just north of Hudson Bay is actually a really good one that has lead to many moderate snow events in our region historically. I’m not getting into the “but will it happen debate”. But I am of the mine it’s better to look good than bad. Last year proved having the long range look awful all winter isn’t a good thing. Additionally seeing the pattern look nothing like a typical Nina (and that feature is not way out in fantasy land) is a positive development. The pattern analogs are littered with nino years right now. And even Nov 1995 in there. Sometimes we get lucky and the atmosphere just does something crazy. Not saying I feel optimistic yet...but there are positive signs.

It needs to snow

Get the center of that ridge in western Canada a bit further NW and it’s a $ pattern.

Sorry I know you knew all that. My post was meant to add for some others who might be reading. I should be more clear about that when I post though.

depends how we get that numerical average. A neutral NAO with a crap pac doesn't really do us any good. But if the average is derived from a mix of positive and negative periods...that would be just fine as the negative periods would present windows of opportunity for us. Furthermore...there are times when the NAO can be negative but from an anomaly in a position that does us very little good...(extremely east based -NAO) and there are times we can get a bootleg block near the western edge of the NAO domain and the NAO numerical value is actually neutral yet the pattern is great for us. The devil is in the details.