psuhoffman

I agree with that. We shouldn’t be discussing details with a storm more then 7 days out anyways. I was thinking more for stuff day 3-6. We used to have threads before we decided that was bad luck.

@CAPE one last point wrt the pac issue. To simplify the relationship with the N PAC vortex...the warmer base state of the PAC has enhanced the jet and that in a nutshell means there is going to be this big firehose of warmth directed somewhere. And unfortunately we are downwind of it. But where would we rather it directed? Across the mid latitudes (directly at us) and enhancing a screaming zonal flow around the mid latitude northern hemisphere that also enhances the PV to its north! We have seen what that looks like plenty recently right? Big ring of red around with a blue ball of death over the pole. Good luck! Or do we want a vortex in the north Pac to take the fire hose and direct it up into the high latitudes and at least disrupt the PV and create chaos! Either way the whole base state is warm. But one seems to give us more of a fighting chance. Again this is just a 10,000 foot view observation.

@WinterWxLuvr @CAPE I added some ETA to my last post before even reading these posts because of “this” issue. I agree with you Cape that multiple threads would be better partly for this reason. There are discreet threat level thoughts, long range longwave pattern level, and then even super long term decadal level patterns thoughts. And they all get mixed in here. Sometimes I am making an observation about something pertaining to decadal level pattern and people take it as pertaining to a current threat. I can multitask in this one thread and it doesn’t bother me that much but some seem to confuse these different trains of thought and conversation and it gets frustrating.

True but that enhanced pac jet (which isn’t really a Nina issue it’s a byproduct of the increased thermal gradient in the pac due to the warning base state supercharging the jet and it’s been there regardless of enso for a long time now) has put us in a double bind. You’re right that with a strong pac jet the trough in the N PAC directs that pac firehouse up into Canada and destroys our cold source regions. But if that N PAC trough relaxes the forehose usually ends up directed right into the lower 48 and that leads to either a totally zonal puke pattern or if there is a trough out west a super ridge in the east and we are 65 degrees. That enhanced jet also makes it very unlikely to sustain the kind of crazy concurrence of variables needed to offset it. Yes if we could get a perfectly placed stable full latitude east based positively tilted EPO ridge that would mitigate the pac. But the enhanced jet makes that even more unlikely then it would be normally (and it’s pretty rare to begin with). That fast jet has destructively interfered with every attempt at high latitude ridging and PV disruption for years. Imo the fact we had a N PAC trough (imo aided by the very off warm over cold SST pattern) muted the issue and it’s not a coincidence that coincided with the first stable long lasting winter high latitude blocking regime we’ve had in forever. So the double bind is this...with that N PAC vortex you direct an enhanced pac jet into Canada and wrench the thermal profile of our source region. But if you lose that the pac jet goes zonal and blasts pac puke into the lower 48 and the fast zonal flow in the pac destructively interferes with any blocking attempts so we get a +NAO and ridge in the east! I don’t see a “win” there but the lesser of the evils imo is the N PAC vortex. Maybe Im wrong but given enough chances I feel the odds were better if eventually getting a couple of the perfect track storms to be “just” cold enough v battling with the imo more destructive effects of the pac jet in a more zonal flow. But I could be wrong. It’s frustrating. We really need that pac jet to relax but it hasn’t for a long time and that is regardless of enso. ETA: this is a bigger picture long timescale point. I think this year we might get a window where we get that rare “just right” Goldilocks in between balance. But longer term we’re going to be really frustrated if that’s what it takes to ever snow.

I think the ridge axis (too far west) out west is a bigger issue. As I argued last night the NAO may not be a picture perfect Davis strait Rex block there...but it’s not supposed to be that hard to get snow. We don’t live in the tropics. A regular old Greenland -NAO ridge has resulted in snow here plenty. Maybe not a 20” HECS but a snowstorm. You can nitpick a minor flaw in almost any pattern. But there is way more right then wrong there. Yet lately is seems unless everything is 100% perfect in every way we can’t buy a snowstorm near DC. ETA: I said near DC because DCA is a joke. It doesn’t surprise me if a runway on an island south of DC at sea level lower in elevation then everyone around them can’t get snow. But even places around DC that average 20” a year can’t seem to buy any snow lately.

Gotcha lol

What Pac tele are you referring too? We’ve had a +PNA since late Nov and the EPO has no correlation to snowfall here.

Me either. I debated not even bringing it up but I’m not a head in the sand kind of guy. That option is there. My guess is that their progressing the pattern too quickly. We also haven’t seen any impact from the SSW yet. Lastly we’ve seen blocking regimes head fake a break down on guidance many times before.

Imo it doesn’t matter once we get to March anyways. The shorter wavelengths have made March a wildcard in a Nina. There doesn’t seem to be any correlation with some Nina years ending cold/snowy and some a torch with no regard to the strength of the Nina into late winter. Nina forcing is bad so it’s not gonna hurt to see it weaken but we’re at the point where it’s becoming irrelevant because by the time the lag wears off the part of the season where Nina has much impact has ended.

That isn’t actually a good look. That’s the first wave (of what was supposed to be a more extended period) but that isn’t going to produce a snowstorm here. 1. That trough doesn’t have enough depth. 2 look at the ridging in front of it. 3. The antecedent airmass sucks. The cold is behind the wave. so...ridge in front, crap airmass, no depth...any storm with that trough is going north of us. If you look at the individual members you will see what I mean. It would be the next wave that has potential. But the problem is there is no next wave on that EPS run. It retrogrades the pattern too quickly such that nothing can amplify east and knock down the WAR and becoming a 50/50. Instead the trough axis pulls into the west and everything would cut then wash out. The next wave (the one I identified on the GEFS last night as a good threat window) never makes it into the east. It’s only one run. I’m not jumping on this. I was just pointing out that it’s there. The EPS paints a fail picture. I’m not ready to jump ship because of one bad run though.

I’m not going to analyze it or freak out but I’ll just put it out there. The 0z EPS is an unmitigated disaster. It lost the poleward EPO ridge and develops a flat central pac ridge which directs the pac firehouse jet right into the US. There isn’t even any transition because that happens so fast the pattern is wrecked before the next flux of the NAO can even do us any good. It’s just one run. GEFS at 6z still looks good. Just hope it’s wrong. It shows exactly what I said my fear was if the N PAC pattern relaxed.

Considering our source region there is the North Pole I would hope so. If we can’t get any cold in that pattern it’s time to pack it in.

2014 not a horrible match except again featured displaced south due to the -NAO

1994 has been showing in the week 2 analogs a lot. Interesting. I can see the similarities but this year has more NAO blocking and everything is displaced south because of it on the long range guidance. Get a 1994 type pattern but shift it south 100 miles and we would be pretty happy.

If this 10 day mean January 15-25 can’t produce something...I don’t know what to say

A discreet threat window might be coming into focus. This setup is hinted at on the CMC GEFS and EPS. Around Jan 18-20 The -NAO is centered and oriented in a much better location (across all guidance) there compared to this first iteration (below). The orientation there (especially how it extends back into Quebec and Ontario is too suppressive. That’s going to shift the storm track pretty far SE but it’s also completely cutting off any cold (even domestic cold) from Canada. But the look above day 9 is where we want a block centered. That prevents excess ridging in the east but allows enough room for a wave to amplify. It also allows cold intrusion into the US from western Canada. We likely have a colder antecedent airmass to work with. Clear 50/50 signature but with a decent spacing between waves and a sharp ridge (we want sharper not shallow with those wavelengths and blocking) far enough west to allow that wave to dig in to out west. Provided that wave can have enough depth/amplitude such that the southern branch gets involved and it can track under us that would be a good setup. The parts are all there. Imo the first really truly good look at a discreet period/threat. But it’s still on the far edge of where we can see any details with clarify. I will be interested in how this time period evolves the next few days.

That should have had a much better precip representation but it will look completely different in 6 hours anyways

Arrival of cold still looks on pace for around the 15th

Generally yes. Fast dominant NS will increase the chances. But that’s kind of the status quo. The mean NS position will be just to our north in winter and so that places the most likely path of those NS SWs through the lakes. We complain about bad luck but it’s really just normal. Getting a high blocked in to our north is the unusual thing. That’s why snow isn’t normal here. We’re too far south to typically get much from those NS polar boundary waves and getting the pattern we need to make a southern stream system work isn’t that common either.

It’s not a Rex block but it is an omega block or NAO ridge. A Rex block is better. The rare white elk pattern. So I’m not saying the details you just posted are wrong. But the way you say it kind of implies we need a Rex block to snow. We’ve had plenty of big snowstorms with a regular old -NAO and not a full on Rex block. I am as frustrated as everyone but I keep seeing these posts blaming very minor imperfections in an overall very good longwave pattern as if the pattern is all wrong. We would almost never get snow if we needed all these variables to be absolutely perfect like some imply. And I know lately it has been that way but I’d like to hope that’s just bad luck and not a new normal because if the only way we can snow is if we have a full on Rex block located exactly over the Davis strait with a +PNA and a -EPO and cross polar flow and a displaced TPV we will get one snowstorm a decade if we’re lucky.

@Ji I like you. I know you didn’t mean that in a malicious way. It was an attempt at humor gone wrong. But you should delete that. There is probably someone in here who has lost a loved one and that can cause unnecessary trauma at a place people come to escape it.

Yea that isn’t bad. Storms would “try” to cut but so long as there is antecedent cold good luck with that blocking look to our northeast. That could lead to miller b hybrids that transfer pretty far south (again with the stipulation there is cold in front).

The great gravy famine has to END