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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    Don’t say that...if the coastal craps out it’s not so bad for south of me. They get 4-8” from the WAA but almost all my snow has to be from the corral. I’m getting fringed by the WAA
  2. psuhoffman
    28/20 no wind at all. It’s too cloudy to see but the real problem is there must be one of those little prop planes they send up from Westminster circling around over head and whoever is flying that thing has the worst case of dandruff I’ve ever seen. It’s disgusting. Getting all over everything.
  3. psuhoffman
    Thanks for converging 3 zones literally at my house! Awesome It’s like a choose your own adventure for me.
  4. psuhoffman
    NAVGEM and JMA ccb DC north. Really odd that most of the globals and the 2 Canadian meso's get some CCB down here...while all the NCEP run meso models, HRRR/NAMs/ARW/NMM all are not even close and stall the low much further north.
  5. psuhoffman
    yea that stall and wrapping banding across northern MD for days is great and all...and sometimes it doesn't take much QPF to rack up totals in those bands...fluff...but its risky relying on that...some of that is still 60 hours away and if you take out that last band that wraps through MD really doesn't get a whole lot from the coastal.
  6. psuhoffman
    A lot of guidance is trending towards pinwheeling the low around on Tuesday and swinging snow back through the area north of DC. Have to see if that is real...and if we can get it to happen maybe a bit further south.
  7. psuhoffman
    bunnies everywhere beware
  8. psuhoffman
    I am hugging the HRDPS big time
  9. psuhoffman
    What are you looking at? It gives DC about 8-10" south to north across the district.
  10. psuhoffman
    GFS has trended southwest with the coastal low capture/stall the last several runs...but without having much impact on the CCB frustratingly lol. But again its super close for DC...this run the capture and tuck happens right at OC which is exactly the latitude that puts DC on the edge for getting into the CCB.
  11. psuhoffman
    Icon snows into Tuesday night lol
  12. psuhoffman
    In fairness (dunno until the qpf comes out) I don’t think the rgem is bad it’s just the trend. Big step back from last 2 runs.
  13. psuhoffman
    Hug the icon.
  14. psuhoffman
    I know you’re kidding but that wouldn’t help. That’s the last thing we need. That would squash the WAA wave and still wouldn’t help with the coastal. Might even make it phase and amplify slower and end up OTS for everyone. Our problems lie in the typical miller b transfer problems.
  15. psuhoffman
    Ehh rgem isn’t the NAM but it shifted the ccb northeast quite a bit. Still decent DC northeast but not close to the last few and the trend is troubling.
  16. psuhoffman
    Rgem still looks better then the nams at 24 hrs. Can already tell it isn’t blasting that dry slot as far north. Too soon on the ccb yet.
  17. psuhoffman
    I was strictly talking about the slp track
  18. psuhoffman
    Yes...but sometimes that actually does happen and it’s not a model feedback error. But it can be, especially on the mesos with this type of setup.
  19. psuhoffman
    Right or wrong (probably wrong) the NAM is chasing the convection and taking the secondary way too far OTS. It’s improving slightly each run with that but not enough. You can see the slp ride up the line of convection that fires out over the gulf steam vs tucking in along the coastal front baroclinic zone.
  20. psuhoffman
    That is some crazy divergence from the consensus secondary track and capture location. Not even close. Wow
  21. psuhoffman
    @Weather Will is slacking cue yeoman with “looks like climo”. 6” one isn’t too shabby either keep in mine ensemble members are low resolution and 10-1 so they are going to underestimate snow totals (when you actually do get it lol) if it’s a cold storm or you get under the ccb
  22. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker 18z was better then 12z
  23. psuhoffman
    The qpf increased across N VA and DC and snow mean increased about an inch in DC. Combo of both a little more qpf with WAA and a little better CCB
  24. psuhoffman
    BIG improvement for N VA on eps. Kinda what I had expected with the op track
  25. psuhoffman
    Any stalled from Lewis Delaware south should at least get some ccb into DC
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