psuhoffman

I don’t know where he is…but in some recent crappy years I’ve noticed more of a difference between the higher ridges in northeast Carroll (Manchester area) than further south along Parrs. In a good year there isn’t much difference. In a bad year there can be when it’s barely cold enough here even. As for his old location it’s unquestionable that it’s becoming harder to get an above average snowfall year on the coastal plane. Even the few good years our “region” have had recently tended to leave them out of the party to some degree.

Sorry I have been really busy lately with work and some personal stuff. But I will try to go through and update the list and post later today.

I don't know if Ji was trying to hint at this or just making an IMBY post...but there is some relevance to what happens in his area and mine to the prospects for the rest of this forum. Something I noticed when I did my snowfall data study years ago was that while its very true that the DC-Baltimore area has quite a few winters where there is virtually no snow heading into January or even February and then they turn it around...that is much less true up here. And to make that worse...most of the examples where there was no significant snow up here before mid December were warm enso years where that is common...and some of those did turn it around. But when you look at enso cold or neutral years without any meaningful snowfall up here before mid December...it gets really ugly! On top of that using raw numbers from 1950 is kinda misleading...because our average snowfall is in decline. A 12" winter in 1955 equates to like a 9" winter now. The last 5 cold or neutral enso years where it didn't snow much up here before Xmas ended up being really awful winters. All 5 were significantly below average snowfall, and 4 of the 5 were single digits at BWI. What I took away from that years ago was that its not that big of a deal if DC and Baltimore and the immediate metro areas don't get much snow early in the season...it is a really bad sign when the entire region including the mountains and northern zones...are snowless early in the season. The exception is el nino years where they are notoriously warm until January and then can flip. But other seasons do tend to "tip" their hand early on. At least by the numbers... So as not to crush all hope there was one example of a nina year that started awful up here and still ended up ok...but its one example out of many...I would rather not be praying for that kind of wildly rare type of recovery.

BWI: 14.9” DCA: 9.3” IAD: 16.1” RIC: 7.1” SBY: 4.9”

January 85, 96, 00 and 11 were cold/snowy. It happens. What’s true is in really crappy Nina’s with a flat Pac ridge when it typically torches during mid winter our best chances are early before the winter pattern sets in and late as wavelengths shorten.

calm down. Let’s look at Nina’s in the last 30 years. 1996 was a Nina. And yea it was one fluke and I doubt that happens again nothing is set in stone. 99/2000 And 2005/6 were near normal snowfall nina years. Both featured a big storm. 98/99, 2008/9, 2010/11, 2017/18, 2020/21 most of the region had at least one decent snowfall. Only 2001, 2012, and 2017 were total duds and even those years there was some snow and threats to track. We didn’t get lucky. But your insistence we are doomed to no snowfall due to La Niña is not supported by historical probabilities.

That’s exactly what I was thinking. I had 20” a week before Xmas and it was still gone by the morning of the 26th even up here! That year I had a white Xmas only by a few hours. There is a reason we get a white Xmas less than once a decade.

You don’t know our climo do you lol

Definitely 100%. Maybe we should bump those snowstorm climo 101 threads from years ago. But I didn’t feel like typing a novel. Simply not overreacting to every random fluke op run is a good start I think but yes to really use the nwp correctly you need to apply real pattern knowledge and analysis. And let’s be honest not everyone is going to master synoptic analysis. And that’s fine…there are lots of things I don’t know Jack about.

Math. The NWP is working exactly as it should. Let’s just take the 3 major globals and ICON since it gets so many eyes due to TT. Thats 16 runs a day. Any given 10 day period during winter has about a 10-25% chance of snow depending on the week and where in this sub you are. If just one run of one model shoes snow in a day that’s not saying the NWP is predicting snow. Climo probabilities would say several runs in any given day should randomly have a snowstorm. If only 1-2 or even 3 runs a day have snow that’s below climo! The vast majority of runs don’t have snow! But no one pays attention to them. Making things worse often when it’s boring people start to post obscure stuff like the JMA or some individual ensemble member. Now we’re talking crazy stupid low chances if we use probabilities when only one run like that has snow. When the majority of runs start to show snow that’s when it’s fair to say the NWP is indicating a high probability of snow. They still bust in those situations too but many exaggerate by thinking the models are saying it’s gonna snow every time an individual run shows a fluke snowstorm when the majority of runs don’t. Then we get people like Tenman who come on and rant about how awful the guidance is and they show every possible solution. Well yes if run enough times at long ranges you will get a lot of permutations. And that’s where understanding statistics and probabilities comes in handy.

The main problem I see is that the system is coming across a little too far north. Look we know the STJ is likely going to be non existent and so a HECS is very unlikely but if we want some decent snows (for a nina) this kind of setup repeated in winter when the jet will be further south would be a good thing. So long as people don’t act stupid and get upset when we get 2-4” or 3-6” and Boston gets 1-2 feet. That’s just climo in a Nina and it’s going to happen. Best to just enjoy what we get and ignore the bombs that happen to our northeast.

Yea for like 20 years running

It looks generally seasonably variable. But if the Mjo wants to take its time so that we get an actual favorable pattern later in December I’m ok with that.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/23/opinions/target-closes-stores-for-thanksgiving-impact-alaimo/index.html Great article about the Target decision. I couldn’t agree more with every word. Perhaps some little good could come from the last 2 awful years if we reevaluate what’s actually important as a society.

It’s a clipper. Good luck pinning that down at any range. That said clippers can be nice up here if they take the right trajectory. I’ve had 4-6” a few times up here from a clipper. But it’s too early to know the track yet.

You are just a troll. You know nothing you say here will make any difference. Everyone here either knows or is willfully opposed. Absolutely nothing, not one little anything, will be changed by any of your posts here. And you know that! You’re just here to annoy people. And we know that. It’s not like anyone thinks you’re for real. You’re act is boring and tired.

This is a science based board. My guess 80% here agree climate change is a problem. But what do you think you’re accomplishing by posting your diatribes here? What possible solvency does this strategy have? Why aren’t you putting these efforts in a more productive way. Join an interest group. Lobby legislators. Go chain yourself to a tree or something. But leave us alone.

He was taking the dick position same as he does with everything else.

weather will weather whether or not.

You aren’t wrong…

So you’re saying he only deleted all your posts that make sense and leaves all the incoherent nonsense you post for everyone to see?

Everytime I see you post I’m amazed your computer still works underwater.

Retail stores have increased demand this week. I’m sure the workers can still get their normal hours and get thanksgiving off. But let’s say your assumption was true…so then the answer is to advocate for paid holiday leave. Instead you use one wrong to justify another wrong. But I would expect no less from you!

100%. It always bothered me as more and made stores opened on Thanksgiving. We have more than enough days to shop. There aren’t that many days like Thanksgiving.