psuhoffman

I don’t think we actually disagree on the forecast much. I think we just disagree on the perception of that forecast. You’re coming at it from “it’s likely to be below avg snowfall but probably not a total shutout and it will snow some so it’s not that bad” I’m coming at it from the perspective of “it’s been 7 years since we had a truly region wide good winter and about a year ago there was optimism this was going to be a modoki Nino (I even remember some data based predictor that was said to have a perfect hind cast score supporting a modoki Nino this winter) and now we’re staring at an 7th straight meh winter during what is already both Baltimore and DCs worst snow period in recorded history so it is THAT bad”.

@40/70 Benchmark when the avg high temp on the coldest day of the year is 44 it’s hard to dismiss. Even on the coldest day of the year we need it to be 12 degrees below normal to get a snowstorm. Something I’ve noticed that’s very discouraging the last 5-10 years…to get cold enough we often need an epo driven pattern. The problem is those are actually cold dry patterns. Historically a lot of our snow around DC was from some form of blocking with “just cold enough” temps. Lately that’s not been working. I can list off a ton of examples of storms recently where everything was perfect in terms of track and pattern and it just ended up a few degrees too warm. It’s why I had 52” a couple years ago and DC was single digits. With my 1000 ft it was just cold enough here but some of those storms I was honestly NW of where the heavy snow zone should have been…but the best WAA and CCB precip was just cold rain until you got north of 40 degrees.

Agree…but temps are biased warmer now and that does matter more down here. Part of the reason DC is in the midst of its least snowy 6 year period in history is the dominant unfavorable Pac base state (and there is some speculation that may be climate change related also!) but another part is that DC has wasted some pretty good H5 patterns where in the past they would manage a 32 degree snowstorm and instead got a 36 degree perfect track mid winter rain storm. We can’t just dismiss that factor down here like New England can.

No it doesn’t. But the forcing I’m talking about is correlated to some very persistent larger scale patterns that have been dominant in the pacific for a very long time.

The MJO spiking in phase 5/6 during a Nina probably won't end well for us in Winter.

Some of the same forcing mechanisms that are conducive for HL blocking now become hostile and have a very different response come winter. I think there can be instances where a cold pattern in the fall, if driven by specific global factors that remain positive influences in winter can be a good thing. But I worry that some of the tropical forcing helping now would be detrimental come winter.

Very small sample size. Also very fluke type thing. It's definitely not a good omen but I'm not convinced there is adequate evidence to say its bad.

Almost all the analogs they are throwing around were "shite" down here... and in some cases they thought they were "ok". Partly why I'm not engaging on all the discussion over specific minor pattern influencers and factors...because no matter how you slice it up the major global indicators say this will be a pretty bad snowfall winter here. There is always hope for a fluke. Maybe the effects of the volcanic eruption throw a wildcard into the mix. Maybe we get a weird non nina 1996 outcome or a lucky 10 day run like January 2000 in an otherwise dreg pattern year. But those are not the kinds of things that we would see coming and can discuss scientifically ahead of time IMO. ETA: I should clarify we can discuss those possible wildcards scientifically...we are discussing them in a productive way...I have no issue with the discussion here.... just that I don't think we have enough data for these more rare factors to be able to say ahead of time with any degree of certainty what the effects will be.

Good. The enso/solar/QBO combo is all horrendous right now. Adding a wildcard can only help. Can’t hurt since prospects for a -AO were pretty awful to begin with.

We know his bias but he isn’t necessarily wrong. You can come up with some less hostile qbo correlations but it requires drilling down to a level of specificity where you create a sample too small to glean meaningful conclusions Imo. That said we don’t know for certainty what reaction every combination of every factor will illicit. There is still plenty of uncertainty and ambiguity in seasonal forecasting. There is always hope. But the current nina qbo combo isn’t a reason to celebrate.

You’re right. My bad. I am not sure how that ended up in there. Remove that. So the range is 2”-13.6”.

I don't think its luck...there is a repetitive trend during Nina's that when it does get cold there are progressive waves that seem to have a better chance the further east you are in our region. On top of that there tend to be a lot of miller b storms due to the lack of a strong STJ and those, while not usually prolific, do sometimes clip our eastern regions a bit as well. Signs of this repetitive pattern have shown up at times in 2009, 2011, 2017, 2018, and 2022. I think there is enough evidence, and Nina snowfall anomaly maps show this as well, that the immediate 95 corridor (where most live!) is the absolute snowfall minimum in a nina. Further west tends to get a bit more snow from temperature dependent systems and further east has a better chance of getting clipped by the progressive waves and miller b's. DC and Baltimore are in the exact worst location and most likely to get screwed. I think that's climo not bad luck. ETA: simply put...the further west you can go before getting any elevation advantages...the worse off you are in a progressive pattern.

I think some are making this more complicated than perhaps it has to be. It is true that prior to 2000 there were plenty of healthy snowfall years in and around DC due to some minor factors going our way in otherwise unfavorable enso state. But since 2000 that just hasn't been true anymore. Since 2000 these are all the DC snowfall totals in -enso years and neutral years following a nina year (which tend to mimic nina results) 3.2", 13.6", 4.9", 7.5", 10.1", 2.0", 3.1", 3.4", 7.8", 0.6", 5.4", 13.2". The avg is 6" and the range is 0.6" to 13.6". Every single season was below avg. The truth is we have only done well in either a nino or a neutral year NOT following a nina. So...it seems unless we are praying for some super anomalous fluke a reasonable expectation is "below avg" with a range somewhere between 1" and 13". I don't think we really are likely to get much benefit from minor positive drivers in the pattern anymore...it seems we now need the major base states to all line up in our favor to get a snowy winter in and around DC. If you live in the western and northern highlands of our regions this does not pertain to you...those areas can still manage a healthy snowfall total in less favorable seasons.

The hemispheric energies aren’t aligned with the geomagnetic tilt.

Yes but those years weren’t in the analog set I was talking about. 2000/01 and 2001/02 and 2012/13 were and all were awful DC snowfall years.

I’m not saying it won’t snow at all. Actually….I never would say that. Because even in the worst years USUALLY we luck into at least one decent snowfall somewhere. The handful of near shutout years took a combo of awful pattern and bad luck. Even those worst years will have some marginal threats and one might hit. So even if we were staring something like that in the face I still wouldn’t predict a shut out. Personally I think trying to differentiate between a 10” or 6” or 2” snow winter in DC is kinda a waste of time. Adjust those totals accordingly to fit your location. For me I don’t bother trying to differentiate between a 25”, 18” or 12” winter. There is too much fluke involved in snow totals. A 10” winter in DC could be from a colder year with a decent base state pattern that just got unlucky with synoptic details. Or it could be a horrible pattern year where we got lucky once or twice! An under 5” year takes an awful pattern but also bad luck. It’s going to drive you mad trying to predict that specific. All I try to do is identify if it’s going to be a year we likely end up above normal, near normal, or below. Once I decide it’s likely below I’m not wasting my time on if it ends up 9” or 3”. Frankly they are all bad to me so whatever. I don’t get depressed over it. I find other things to do. Track the chances at a fluke. Travel to see snow. Being a skier helps! But I’m not obsessing over whether DC gets 3” or 9”. And I’m not obsessing over whether I get 15” or 25” (kinda the equivalent). When I do seasonal I’m hunting for those 25% of actual snowy winters. Once I realize this probably ain’t one…the rest are all some degree of suck so whatever. Not saying anyone else should agree with this. And I do think it’s valuable to try to differentiate more with temperatures just not with snow. Just explaining my crazy mindset.

But yet almost every one of those years DC had very little or no snow in Dec and most went on to be pretty awful as a whole. Agaun this is why I find it hard to be optimistic. No matter how you dice it up, sort analogs, change what factors will be dominant…I’ve yet to see any any analog set that includes snowy winters down here. There are reasons to be optimistic in places north of 40. This doesn’t look like a wall to wall torch everywhere winter. But we usually are on the outside watching others celebrate in those type years. I’ll duck and cover now. Deb out.

Yea and that December was a torch which is the opposite of what the person who compiled that analog set was implying. And a “set” of 1 is pretty useless Imo. Just saying I wouldn’t weight that much at all based on the variance of the entire set and limited enso comps.

Pretty useless set when some of those Decembers were polar opposites in terms of pattern.

it wouldn’t shock me. Even when I predict below avg snow I never think that means it’s a lock. Just more likely than not. Weirder things have and will happen.

That’s why I’m pretty low on my expectations. Not because I think this is some 2002/2012/2020 blowtorch non winter. But if you look at even the colder comp cold enso years and westerly QBO years they were pretty bad down here. Even the ones that were snowy Philly north. They just don’t work here 90% of the time. One reason to always hold out hope here though is 1999/2000. I bring that year up a lot. 90% of that winter every factor was all wrong. But we got a 2 week decent (it honestly wasn’t even great) pattern and got lucky. Hit on 3 straight storms. Most remember that as a good year but it was dreadful in terms of the pattern and easily could have been a total dreg year like 2002 with a little less luck. 2001/2002 on the other hand had a decent pattern much of Dec and early Jan but we had bad luck, missed one storm south another cut just inland and a third hit but was weak and didn’t maximize potential. Those 2 years could easily have been flipped with some slightly different luck. And you can’t predict that.

This is Europe centered and the mean is misleading since it’s skewed by different ENSO years but there is something useful to be gleaned. These years featured a pretty good December -NAO. But other than the Nino years they mostly didn’t do much good for our area. The cold enso years were pretty low on snow. Positive though most did feature some snow so the idea it will likely snow some this year is supported. But this is why I’m skeptical of focusing on a front loaded winter. More often than not we waste even a good pattern before Xmas. I know the thought of holiday period snow is nice, I like that too, but ideally we really want our best patterns to line up in January and February if we want some confidence we benefit from it.

Does it matter? You can keep waiting for a change or you can make the change.

Just keep in mind over the years I’ve busted high more than low with my seasonal forecasts. The last time I was taking heat for being a huge deb the whole sub ended up with single digit snow and many places got a total goose egg. I truly honestly hope this time it blows up in my fave and we get buried and you all can make fun of me.

You can dream. And when you wake up you can enjoy your 55 degree Xmas!