psuhoffman

I thought I was being bold when I made my map a few hours ago…then 18z said hold my beer.

You’re going to drive yourself crazy if you pay attention to every hourly hrrr wobble. God help us all when the new NAM replacement and short range ensemble system go live and are both hourly!

Still waiting for your what can go wrong post lol

Deep creek looks like a terrible place for this event I was supposed to go to snowshoe tonight with the kids. Decided to stay here for the storm and go tomorrow evening. Kids would rather play in the snow here anyways, it will be too windy to ski comfortably tomorrow, and I think it’s going to be a better even here! Snowshoe MIGHT end up with a higher total if they get some decent upslope but the more dynamic event will be here Imo.

10-1 is still 5-7” for much of the area. Also I’m not convinced some of the ratios in the 1-2” per hour banding won’t be pretty high

DAYUM

I need to go do something with this…might take a while.

Lol ya it feels like looking at those old school MRF unisys maps

We all know the faults and biases of WxBell but at least they do seem to use the most sophisticated snow accumulation algorithms available and they calculate it hourly when hourly data is available. The SV maps seem to calculate using less sophisticated metrics and can be way off when it’s a borderline setup where calculating 1-2 hours wrong or misplacing the snow/ice/rain line a bit can have a huge difference.

you forgot the key. @mappy does not approve

I added start times, wind vectors, and DC escape routes just to make it more clear!

12z high res Canadien actually looks a lot like the HRRR

In the past it had a tendency to be wildly inconsistent beyond 12 hours. The last 2 years I've noticed its been much better...or at least no worse than the other high resolution guidance in that regard.

RAP loves everyone. It’s like a group hug!

I agree

@HighStakes March is where it’s at up here. In my 15 years here we’ve had a warning level March snow 10 times. Feb is skewed by that ~70” month in 2010 but if you take that one year out March is by far our snowiest month!

You know my thoughts regarding what way boundary temps have been going lately…but if temps do actually drop below freezing AND it’s coming down 1-2” per hour like guidance is showing…ratios could be high in those bursts. That intensity will mix out any warm later and block enough solar to render that moot. Lots of ifs in there though. But I do think this scenario has more upside potential than most of our marginal threats lately.

Wow 2-4 is pathetic. Their snow maps were 3-5 last night and models got better 1. Who cares. We see everything they see. Make your own assessment. 2. it’s a different shift. Maybe the day shift was simply being more liberal and the night shift is more conservative. Perhaps had the night shift been on yesterday the forecast would have been 1-2”.

Those snow depth maps are awful. The reason in our area the kuchera and 10-1 maps are usually overdone is because often the models are simply wrong about it snowing at all. If the model is just wrong and the rain snow line ends up further north and we get no snow…or 3 hours of snow instead of 8 hours…then of course the snow maps will bust. But where it actually does end up snowing those depth maps are atrociously low. Trust me from someone who spends a great deal of time in winter in Vermont or WV or Colorado…places where it does actually end up snowing…the depth maps are awful and always just low.

I feel sorry for you.

This is excellent but I’d love to see this done with median!

Just want to make it clear my points have nothing to do with who or what is causing the warming. I have my own opinions but this is not the place. I am simply making observations on our changing snow climo, regardless of what the cause or fault of those changes are!

Our snow mean and median were dropping before this recent period. I do think its likely we are in a periodic minimum and the pattern will get more snowy at some point. God I pray that is right at least! But even if that is true...it doesn't invalidate my point that we are losing some snow along the margins. I do not know and cant quantify exactly which events are affected and by exactly how much. That's a debatable thing...but the fact its snowing less is not.