psuhoffman

What do you suggest they do to improve the guidance?

Since when do we need cross poler Siberian air to get snow? h5 from some of our notable snowstorms. A -epo is actually pretty rare during a big snowstorm here because a ridge over AK often puts the trough too far west and a storm would cut unless there was a VERY negative NAO. The more typical progression to snow here was a -epo a week or so before the storm that helped inject cold into North America. Then the epo ridge progresses to the pna space with a trough near AK and the cold source cuts off. But the storm that would then come would take advantage of the left over domestic cold. The cold didn’t get immediately routed and annihilated by warm pac puke in like 7 seconds like it seems to now! If we need a direct flow from Siberia to get snow we’re in deep deep bleep because that’s actually NOT a good pattern for big snowstorms historically. 90% of our big snows did not happen during cross polar flow but used domestic air masses that were just cold enough.

He wised up and moved to northern NH and is busy shoveling the 20” they just got.

Sorry for the stream of consciousness I’m about to unleash… so many thoughts on this. It’s not a 970 low in Erie as that front runner blasts to our north. And if there was a colder thermal profile maybe the low ends up 980 over Ohio and reforms off NJ. Small adjustment. Major difference for ground truth. That still wouldn’t be a HECS here but it’s the difference between all rain and a messy 3-6” snow. You’re totally correct in the micro. Im being more macro. You’re right but what’s the goal here? We’re never gonna have a big winter relying on weak boundary waves in a progressive pattern. 2014 was a once in a lifetime luck heater wrt those. That’s never happening again. Our path to a big winter is getting some big storms and those require blocking. On the one hand it’s a Nina ya. One the other 1914, 1996, Jan 2000 and Feb 2006 happened. We can get big snows in a Nina when we get blocking. So just tossing the opportunity to score big because Nina is wrong Imo. Im also biased because up here I’m never getting to a respectable winter with a few weak waves. Last year was near median for you and a bottom 10% snow year here! Some winters you think are pretty good because you got 15” from a few weak waves were the worst up here where a 20” winter is bottom 10%. But we all root for imby so I get it and don’t begrudge you at all! I’d feel the same in your shoes. But what’s the goal? We aren’t breaking out if this cycle of crap with a couple 4” progressive waves. We’re long overdue for a big winter. I think we’re hunting for different things. Lastly I’m not kicking a 3-6” snow out of bed. I enjoyed the few snows I got last year. I will again. But nothings eminent so…. But if we keep wasting -4 stdv blocks we’re in trouble in a larger snow climo sense.

They’re meeting in the middle. We maybe can still salvage something from this on either side but won’t know that until we get inside 72 hours for those kinds of details.

Once again we go from 5 to 8 to 28 to 8 but instead of settling at 5...we get zero I’ve noticed. You’re not wrong. My next project it I ever get time might be to look into this further but anecdotally it seems to me that the snow gradient on the south side of storms is a lot sharper. It’s just not cold enough. When I did that snow study years ago I was kinda shocked at many of the ugly and convoluted tracks that managed a 3-6” snow in our area simply because the antecedent airmass was cold. But they became much less frequent in the records over time. They’re becoming almost extinct lately. It’s perfect track or nothing most of the time lately. Add in the fact we’ve even managed to waste a couple percent tracks when there just wasn’t enough cold and voila were in the worst snow stretch in recorded history

The 27th threat was predicated on this system being a coastal and progressing east. If it bombs to 950 and ends up a tpv directly north of us nothings going to happen for a while around here after.

No we just need the NAO and AO to be -4 stdv at the same time as we have a stationary TPV at 50/50 and a perfectly placed full latitude EPO PNA ridge with the axis exactly through Boise. Jokes aside to clarify my point…those making the case why this shouldn’t be a DC HECS are 100% correct. The PNA isnt perfect and the 50/50 slides out too fast. But I have 2 counter points. What happened to just a 3-6” messy snow in our area from a storm that “wasn’t perfect”. That used to be the majority of our snow. 3-6” in our area from a storm that cut due to those imperfections and dumped 12”+ on Buffalo or something. But it was still cold enough to start as a nice snow here. Why do we need a perfect track to get any snow even when we had a cross polar flow direct injection only a few days before??? Second point is why is it a repetitive pattern that the WAR associated with the TNH continuously is winning and preventing a 50/50. Yes no 50/50 is the micro reason we lose but why are we seeing the failure of blocks to produce the canonical response in the northwest Atlantic repeatedly.

My fear for after is this system pulls north and retrogrades, stalled from progressing by the link up of the WAR and NAO. So we’re left in the exact same conundrum. Weak waves are likely squashed since were directly under the TPV but anything stronger that phases cuts since there is nothing to prevent it from pumping ridging to the North Pole in front. ETA: it could work, but would require luck with exact placement of features and phasing. Been a long time since we got lucky. Some here subscribe to the were due index.

It is and it’s always been better for us when it’s negative. BUT there were more examples in the past of a -NAO being able to beat down the +TNH pattern and suppress systems under us. Recently the TNH seems to be winning even when the AO/NAO are ridiculously negative.

The TNH pattern has been killing us. We’ve wasted several NAO blocks over the last 5 years the exact same way. The TNH ridge being pumped by “ya know” links to with the NAO ridge and pushes out any 50/50 way too fast so that systems can still cut. It’s been a repetitive issue.

The guidance is clearly in the process of meeting in the middle, which is what happens 90% of the time, and why we lose when we’re rooting for the most extreme solution to be 100% correct in either direction.

Wrt the TPV in Canada it’s not. That’s good. I think there is a reasonable chance the Gfs is more right there. The reason I’m not more bullish on this setup is even if the Gfs scores the coup there…and the tpv sides east on top…it still stalls west of ideal and the pna is west of where we want and with mo 50/50…it would still be a struggle to prevent a cutter. Just might cut up the Apps not to Chicago. But with a more Gfs progression we might have a better shot with a thump on the front or 1-2” on the back. So it’s better. Hope I’m wrong and this trends to a HECS but I’d be rooting for that lead wave as our best shot to get on the board.

Where they are can be a function of wavelengths and many factors but adding heat will only exasperate the problem

Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block.

All true…but in a macro sense we seem to be finding lots of excuses for why generally good setups don’t work recently. That’s troubling. The moment that was eye opening to be was when we got a perfect track sub 990 rainstorm in dead mid winter a few years ago. And the excuse was “no arctic air”. Sure ok. But we shouldn’t need arctic air in late January.

Fwiw I don’t see any euro like solutions. I see some tucked or inland runners like the op. Some big hits like 12z and a handful of OTS misses. It was a good gefs run overall Imo.

To clarify my post just now is mostly because of ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. I agree with Brooklyn that this Gfs run was just noise at this range compared to 12z. The more disturbing evidence is that everything else is against it. Doesn’t mean it’s dead. I’m still interested. I’ve not given up. But it’s not super highly likely imo that the Gfs is correct against all other guidance. Not impossible but I’m not betting anything of value on it either.

I did it. Check out my reply to CApE

You’re both not wrong. You’re pointing out WHY this setup could go wrong despite a crazy -AO and west based NAO block. And you’re right. But it also might not just be bad luck either. You’re right that without lower heights under a block it’s impacts are muted. But we’ve now seen several bouts of -NAO ruined by an eastern mid lat ridge linking up over recent years and by a hostile pac. And I’ve seen research that both might be related to at the very least long term cycles if not permanent changes due to warming. And even if the persistent TNH that’s been killing us isn’t directly related it is being enhanced by the hot tub formerly known as the Gulf. I see some repetitive patterns here. That’s said I am not saying snows over. M Keep us in this pattern long enough and we likely eventually get lucky. But at the same time I don’t think the pattern has really been THAT awful the last 6 years to have warrented it being the “worst ever” wrt snow. Instead what I’ve observed as to why is we get NOTHING anymore in bad patterns. Just weeks and weeks of total no hope 50s-70s weather with absolutely no chance at snow no matter how lucky we get with synoptic details. Then when we do get good patterns we underperform.

Should I do it.

Sure. Except it’s already caved too much for our purposes. Lol.

it’s still worlds apart BUT the Gfs did take a baby step towards the other guidance wrt the TPV which is why the further west track initially. Little weaker to our north. Slightly stronger out west.

Oh I know. It’s why I don’t watch anymore. Not sure why I decided to see what was up. I knew from others he made a call for a snowy December and winter. Figured I’d kill a few mins. But it was weird. He was kinda hinting there won’t be any snow then a warmup but at the same time was patting himself on the back for nailing the pattern. He was talking as of it’s been a cold snowy December. Just odd. Like alternate reality odd.

Just watched a JB video for the first time in a couple years. Confused. He favors the big storm to be inland (can’t fault that) then saying the pattern “finally breaks down and warms up” but is talking like he is taking a victory lap. Did I miss a bunch of cold and snow? Maybe I slept through it. He has a huge area in above normal snow that hasnt had any snow, he is saying hey aren’t getting any, and a big warmup is coming and is acting like “nailed it”. Seriously someone who still follows him clue me in.