psuhoffman

I was up in PA that one winter and got 14” but where I am now got 23” according to the coop down the street.

I remember all the hits too, unfortunately that’s a much smaller list. I’m lucky to have a good memory. Secret is I never studied and I’m not that smart…I just remember everything. I do think there is value in knowing how we’ve failed though.

That hasn’t been my experience. Just going back over some notably great patterns… 1996 we got some minor snow in November and early December from a pac driven pattern. But the great blocking set in around Dec 10 then we struck out on like the first 5 waves before the big storm finally hit in January. 2003 we did hit our first threat in December. Then we struck out on a couple and lucked into some back end snow after a big rainstorm on Xmas. But then we went almost a month in the middle of that winter with mostly cold and dry conditions before the epic February. We had a really good pattern in Jan-Mar 2005 but mostly struck out again and again until we finally hit on back to back snows in late February early March. 2009-10 we waited a couple weeks and then cities missed on 3 threats before the big storm. Then when blocking reloaded in January we missed on the first several chances again, which was when Ji went on that now infamous rant before we went on that heater in early February. But after we also missed 3 more threats to end that winter and Ji made another epic post that it made the winter disappointing to end that way lol. 2013-14 was the only exception where we seemed to hit everything. That was rare Imo and we got lucky. 2014-15 the pattern flipped to a -epo pna pattern in mid January then we suffered for a month while New England got blasted and we missed threat after threat. Then we went on an epic run Mid Feb and March. 2016 January the block set in then we wasted 3 threads. One was similar to this coming storm, muller b with not enough cold. Then a cutter. Then a suppressed storm and finally the big hit. Then we mostly wasted the same pattern for several weeks after also. We also missed 2 good threats in March that year. We under performed. March 2018. Amazing pattern. But we missed 3 times before the hit. Perfect track coastal with not enough cold. Then a miller b that developed late. Then a suppressed storm. I made an epic rant and we got the hit right after. This is subjective somewhat, but just pointing out from my perspective even when we’ve had great patterns and great winters we miss a lot and sometimes have to suffer before snow. I think we just block out the misses and just remember the hits when we look back.

It is a very similar look. In 2009 eventually a piece of the TPV did drop in and phase while there was a 50/50 in the way to prevent a cutter. But keep in mind it took a while. We had a cutter and a sheared wave after that date before finally getting the win. Great setup doesn’t mean “next wave is definitely a big snow”. Even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit.

It’s trending more negative day 10-15 than guidance showed it previously. Not more negative than the -4 stdv it is now. We don’t need the AO to be -4 to snow.

Now that the guidance has resolved the bigger picture Synoptics of the evolution this week, and it makes much more sense given the lack of any antecedent cold, we can start to get a clearer picture of what could come after. As the primary from this week stalls and slowly dies to our north in Canada cold will finally slide east across the Conus. For a time the flow is likely to be progressive and suppressive. Not sure about that first wave around the 20th. That might be a slider. After that it gets interesting Imo. A lobe of the TPV is going to slide south through a temporary weakness in the blocking and end up in Canada. But at the same time the wave breaking from the system this week and that TPV is going to pump the NAO ridge and the blocking strengthens again. After that is when I think is our best shot. The TPV stuck under blocking will provide ample cold source. The key will be exactly how that TPV is situated. Several ways to score. Waves look to continue to eject from the pac and one could run the boundary under the TPV. The big dog potential would be around the 23-27th if something from the NS rotates down around the TPV and phases. That’s risky though. If there happens to be a 50/50 at the right time that’s the setup for a big storm. No 50/50 and too much Atlantic ridge in front and it would be a cutter. Weaker boundary waves would be higher probabilities for frozen but lower high end potential. Just my 2 cents how I think this might play out. Most of what I described the key events happen soon enough that I feel reasonably confident in this general progression.

I see you found a mirror.

Ji hasn’t been that bad Imo, just a frustrated post now and then when a specific storm doesn’t work out. The other guy though…is just straight trolling and contributes absolutely nothing of substance ever.

Agree with Wiggum. Unless you just have a bet the Bay freezes over you don’t actually want the core of that kind of cold centered on top of us. Storms are going to ride the boundary. You want to be on the cold side but not too far. That’s an ideal look Imo.

No matter how many times you say it the usual suspects will still melt down and unleash a rant in tongues when it fails.

if we ask a psychiatrist, probably nothing good

Fwiw UKMET looks like CMC/GFS. Mostly an upstate NY into New England event.

Yup. One think I think some underestimate…we’re too far south to ever have a can’t miss super high snow probability setup from long range. No matter how good the pattern is…we always will still need some luck wrt timing and other synoptic and meso scale details that can’t be seen until medium range at best.

Yea, but they look like we should expect for this type of system. Primary into the Midwest in mid December without an arctic airmass in place…not the way we win. Is it within the realm of possible sure, if we get super lucky in every detail, but we need more than just a block to snow. It gets annoying everytime we get blocking and then some assume every storm has to be snow suddenly. We rain during a blocking pattern all the time. Maybe even still more than snow! We need blocking AND the right synoptic setup. This ain’t it. Root for a fluke but don’t expect anything from this setup. It’s a bonus. Our better chances come after. Waves between the 20-25 need to be watched closely imo.

I tried but he complained that colors are a liberal hoax then ate the crayons.

refresh my memory...is having a -3std NAO and EPO block at the same time a good thing?

All this... There is a path here, but its narrow because the amount of confluence needed to force a system under us starting out that far north is so extreme its also likely to shred the system if thing's don't go exactly right. We saw this a few times back in 2021 where a system originally supposed to cut way north ended up shredded to nothing by the time it got to us. Does not mean it can't work out...but I still think our best bet would be for the system to kinda split and get a healthy front runner wave into the CAD rather then having the energy come out more consolidated and trying to slide under the block. Yea that has bigger upside...but more often then not either the primary mucks up the mid levels OR if there is enough confluence the system gets shredded and washes out. But I am not pessimistic overall... this first wave COULD work...but I think there are likely to be better opportunities later. If we do get any significant snow from this first threat I consider it a bonus.

One way a setup like this could work...is if the primary trends weaker and more disconnected...and we get a front runner wave. We have seen that setup lead to a modest snow/ice event before. Obviously the 6z GFS 12z ICON idea of a primary dying and a secondary bombing is ideal...but also pretty rare. The thing we don't want is for there to be a more consolidated/stronger primary that would wreck the mid levels pretty fast given how far west its tracking initially.

Yes, there are a few examples of that kind of progression. It’s not impossible but it’s rare. Definitely not the typical way we get a snowstorm.

not saying just saying. Keep in mind there was no snow in the cities during this period. There was a nice event NW and a front end snow to rain again NW during this period but the big snow came after when a pna temporarily popped. But I think its worth pointing out a couple things that could be pertinent if this in fact is the type of pattern we end up with. While non having a Nino will limit potential due to less STJ the pattern is the pattern. If a non Nina pattern happens in a Nina the atmosphere isn’t going to be like “no we can’t let it snow cause it’s a Nina”. The challenge is usually getting a non Nina pattern during a Nina! Second, we don’t need a long lived pna ridge. If we can just get a temporary one for a few days that kind of pattern is loaded. That’s how 2009 happened. A pna ridge popped at the right time allowing one of the ejecting waves from the west to dig into the east and not try to cut. And….voila.

@WxUSAF there is actually one fairly recent really good December -epo/AO/NAO/pna pattern match. Not a Nina though.

Not really unless you go WAY back…nothing the last 30 years. The closest comp would be March 2018. This is a lot more typical of a Nino longwave pattern up top actually, but the central pac makes this a super rare look overall. Not a lot of great comps. Even the top analogs aren’t really all that close for the best analog. But the best matches Imo were periods in Dec 1970, 1978, and 1989.

Yes