psuhoffman

@frd I agree with most of what you said...and its not hopeless, but one thing I wanted to point out...there have been a few times I can remember people "banking" on the nina fading thing...but I see no statistical evidence it really increases our chances of snowfall. In the last 50 years there are 4 Nina's that were fading significantly during the winter season. 1971-72, 83-84, 2011-12, and 2016-17. None of them had a blockbuster finish. Almost all the snow in 1972 did come in Feb but it was from one really fluke storm, maybe the weirdest of all the KU's that defied pattern and normal expectations. 1984 did turn colder and blocky in March but didn't do our area that much good...we did get a couple moderate snowfalls late. 2012...ya no. 2017 we got that ice storm in March but that was about all we got from the late season. Furthermore, several Nina's that didn't fade also had a period of blocking and or cold/snow in March. 1999 and 2018 notably. Statistically there just isnt any proof that a nina fading during winter helps our snow chances at all. I think due to the lag affect its just not a factor...unless the nina fades by the start of winter...its too late to help us much in establishing a new winter pacific base state.

I few years ago I hypothesized based on observation that the MJO impact is most significant when it is in phase and conjunction with the base state and often has little impact when its weak and out of phase with the base state. For example...a strong phase 8-1 during el nino will initiate a great pattern. But when we were waiting all winter for the MJO to weakly meander into phase 8 during a Nina...when it did finally do so it had no real impact other then to make the pattern perhaps a little less awful for a week.

@CAPE unfortunately we've been seeing a lot of what we typically get in a long range pattern fail. Over the last 5 years guidance has often teased the progression of the pacific when in reality it quickly retrogrades into its hostile base state, or fails to ever even get out of it. One troubling feature, even on the better looking long range guidance, the central pacific ridge is still healthy and centered exactly where we don't want it. The EPS at times is getting a good look by extending that ridge all the way into western N American and even at times linking with the AO/NAO. But that's just tenuous at best and unlikely a sustainable longwave pattern. So long as the main heat transfer in the pacific continues happening north of Hawaii we are going to have a really difficult time getting true cold air and fighting off a SE ridge. The other issue is that the NAO isn't a true block. The actual block there now was originally supposed to retrograde to Baffin. Instead the "block" is being squezed out and what we end up with is simply higher heights up top mostly due to the fact there is no cold air anywhere on our side after the TPV slides out. The higher heights we see up top is mostly a useless feature in terms of doing us any good wrt a pattern favorable for snowfall. On the positive side, things could be much worse. The amplitude of the pacific ridge is not as great as it was during some of our worse periods. There is no blue ball of death up top. The pattern is close enough that it could still evolve towards a better place down the road, even if I am skeptical. Problem is...the pattern being "ok" doesn't really do us any good anymore most of the time. As I was lamenting with @WxUSAFthe other day, we don't really luck our way to snow in marginal setups very often anymore. We really need a true cold air source and favorable pattern to get snow.

delayed but not denied

Thanks to the Dalton Minimum coinciding with Dickens writing we get to obsess over snow happening on one specific day every year.

But 2 things can be true. Getting the timing wrong is a bust. Failed forecast. Yes. But there is also a difference between a pattern change taking longer to complete or a new pattern taking longer to mature then initially expected and it just not happening at all. Sometimes it’s just a total fail but sometimes it really is just a timing thing. And shouldn’t it be about where we go from here not lamenting what some already got wrong?

Always good to have newbies. Don’t worry you’ll figure it out after a while.

So I’m not the only one who does this lol

https://fb.watch/hbQYHocZGI/?mibextid=vTn5qL

Just don’t

Fixed is highly subjective

Let me preface this that I don’t necessarily buy into this ATT. But…there is a lot of assumption that once the cold enso pattern breaks our pac issues will be alleviated. But we did have a Nino and a neutral winter recently where the pac was every bit as god awful and there are some speculating this current cycle is more related to other factors not enso.

I have hope. Just being pragmatic and keeping my expectations in check given the evidence of how this usually ends in a Nina. But there are plenty of encouraging enough signs. It certainly could be worse.

Statistically there has been a slow decline for the last 100 years. It happens in an uneven way with cycles within the longer trend but it’s there.

My fear is by the time the pac improves we lose the Atlantic. That’s been a common theme. I’ll take the pac to increase chances if some snow given temps are the bigger problem lately, but truth is we’re unlikely to do very well without both cooperating I’ll try but it would be somewhat subjective since you can’t simply add a couple degrees and keep everything else the same. Example: there is some good research implying the central pac ridging is being enhanced by warning. That’s going to encourage a -pna which in turn pumps the se ridge which is also being further enhanced by warmer SST in the GOM and Atlantic. So the whole storm track can be shifted hundreds of miles and a whole pattern radically altered by relatively minor warming.

@WxUSAF we probably can still work with a marginal setup between like Jan 10-Feb 15 or some crazy small window like that, maybe…but we seem to also get our worst patterns during that narrow window often.

This is 100% but I continue to observe the fact that over the last 10 years we seem to need increasingly anomalously perfect patterns to get snow. The days of lucking into snow with marginal setups seem a thing of the past.

Or start a go Fund me project to turn all of central MD and NW VA into a huge lake. Sell It as creating a sustainable freshwater source for the megalopolis or something, only we will know the real reason.

@Maestrobjwa try something…instead of coming at this from the perspective of “it should snow” then getting frustrated when it doesn’t…just come at it from the expectation it probably won’t snow and expect nothing…then be happy when on rare occasions it does snow.

In the end GGG picked Wes and Weah over him it seems. I can’t really criticize that too much. They both balled out. And Wes created way better than I expected. Weah was a vertical threat we needed. What was inexcusable was using Morris over Reyna late against Wales and not finding a way to get him more mins as a sub. Even V IRAN I’d have favored trying to defend by possessing more than bunkering and got him on. But in the end the reason we are out is just embarrassing lazy marking today. You won’t ever control the run of play better than we did, but you can’t ignore and simply not mark late arriving runners to the box. That’s like rec league level basics. I’d have had words with the youth team I coach for that kind of lazy defense. I hate to pick on Tyler because he was great the rest of the tournament but my god what he did on the first goal was inexcusable as a defensive mid. Lazily strolling back as a man arrives right in front of him unmarked to the box. That was my position and I’d probably have never seen the pitch again in high school or college if I did that more than once! Just amateur level mental mistake. The finishing was kinda awful too but we we knew that wasn’t a strong suit and no one was picking us to win 4-3. The awful marking did us in. Shame, we really could and maybe should have won this match. We have the quality to take the play to teams now and not just sit back and counter. But you can’t be lazy on defense ever at this level.

The h5 pattern was actually degrading by the time that storm happened. But the pna and NAO combo earlier set the stage. We got lucky that a healthy enough stj wave (in a Nina no less) but not too strong that it would try to amplify too soon, came along with a healthy arctic airmass in place and bombed at the right time. The blocking really had relaxed by then and the pna was only ehh. But there was still a lingering 50/50, a arctic air mass, and a nice wave and it all came together.

I was up in PA in 2014. We did good but not as good as down here. I was here in 2015 and got like 55”. The mean of 2 full winter composites hides important details. look at the h5 from the 2 good January snows in 2014 That look is washed out on the mean. The AO domain h5 pattern is pretty darn good there. Now look at the Feb and March snow periods The pattern was breaking down some for the Feb storm but there was cold established, a lot of snow over across the north, and the AO isn’t awful. There is no consolidated raging TPV over the pole. March the TPV is displaced and suppressing the flow for us. I don’t consider any of those looks ++AO in a practical sense as it impacts our pattern. 2015 there was a monster full latitude EPO PNa ridge displacing and elongating the TPV. 1993 all the snow came in one storm in March from a triple phased bomb. That’s an anomaly and not a good way to try to reliably get snow 1994 our area did god awful wrt snow given how cold it was and the pac pattern. So again I don’t think it’s a good example of what you’re implying. If we have some truly god awful AO state like Jan-Feb 2020 for instance, the PNA alone wouldn’t save us.

The high latitudes weren’t as hostile as you’re implying some of those years. The numerical index isn’t as important as the actual h5 pattern.

It’s a different wave.

Problem is we’re too far south to survive any one major factor being awful. I agree the AO is the most important but it can be ruined if other things are in a bad way.