psuhoffman

Wrt the TPV in Canada it’s not. That’s good. I think there is a reasonable chance the Gfs is more right there. The reason I’m not more bullish on this setup is even if the Gfs scores the coup there…and the tpv sides east on top…it still stalls west of ideal and the pna is west of where we want and with mo 50/50…it would still be a struggle to prevent a cutter. Just might cut up the Apps not to Chicago. But with a more Gfs progression we might have a better shot with a thump on the front or 1-2” on the back. So it’s better. Hope I’m wrong and this trends to a HECS but I’d be rooting for that lead wave as our best shot to get on the board.

Where they are can be a function of wavelengths and many factors but adding heat will only exasperate the problem

Yea but my point was why are mid latitude ridges becoming so strong that the last several times we had a -NAO we had this issue with a mid lat ridge pumping all the way north far enough to link with the block.

All true…but in a macro sense we seem to be finding lots of excuses for why generally good setups don’t work recently. That’s troubling. The moment that was eye opening to be was when we got a perfect track sub 990 rainstorm in dead mid winter a few years ago. And the excuse was “no arctic air”. Sure ok. But we shouldn’t need arctic air in late January.

Fwiw I don’t see any euro like solutions. I see some tucked or inland runners like the op. Some big hits like 12z and a handful of OTS misses. It was a good gefs run overall Imo.

To clarify my post just now is mostly because of ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. I agree with Brooklyn that this Gfs run was just noise at this range compared to 12z. The more disturbing evidence is that everything else is against it. Doesn’t mean it’s dead. I’m still interested. I’ve not given up. But it’s not super highly likely imo that the Gfs is correct against all other guidance. Not impossible but I’m not betting anything of value on it either.

I did it. Check out my reply to CApE

You’re both not wrong. You’re pointing out WHY this setup could go wrong despite a crazy -AO and west based NAO block. And you’re right. But it also might not just be bad luck either. You’re right that without lower heights under a block it’s impacts are muted. But we’ve now seen several bouts of -NAO ruined by an eastern mid lat ridge linking up over recent years and by a hostile pac. And I’ve seen research that both might be related to at the very least long term cycles if not permanent changes due to warming. And even if the persistent TNH that’s been killing us isn’t directly related it is being enhanced by the hot tub formerly known as the Gulf. I see some repetitive patterns here. That’s said I am not saying snows over. M Keep us in this pattern long enough and we likely eventually get lucky. But at the same time I don’t think the pattern has really been THAT awful the last 6 years to have warrented it being the “worst ever” wrt snow. Instead what I’ve observed as to why is we get NOTHING anymore in bad patterns. Just weeks and weeks of total no hope 50s-70s weather with absolutely no chance at snow no matter how lucky we get with synoptic details. Then when we do get good patterns we underperform.

Should I do it.

Sure. Except it’s already caved too much for our purposes. Lol.

it’s still worlds apart BUT the Gfs did take a baby step towards the other guidance wrt the TPV which is why the further west track initially. Little weaker to our north. Slightly stronger out west.

Oh I know. It’s why I don’t watch anymore. Not sure why I decided to see what was up. I knew from others he made a call for a snowy December and winter. Figured I’d kill a few mins. But it was weird. He was kinda hinting there won’t be any snow then a warmup but at the same time was patting himself on the back for nailing the pattern. He was talking as of it’s been a cold snowy December. Just odd. Like alternate reality odd.

Just watched a JB video for the first time in a couple years. Confused. He favors the big storm to be inland (can’t fault that) then saying the pattern “finally breaks down and warms up” but is talking like he is taking a victory lap. Did I miss a bunch of cold and snow? Maybe I slept through it. He has a huge area in above normal snow that hasnt had any snow, he is saying hey aren’t getting any, and a big warmup is coming and is acting like “nailed it”. Seriously someone who still follows him clue me in.

Jan 2000 guidance had that hecs from range then lost it. But they never actually brought it back until it was snowing lol.

But it does have the Mt psuhoffman maximum

That makes sense thanks. So it’s telling us we should have been celebrating 12 hours ago and we already know it’s going to be depressing at 0z lol. Nice model.

I could be totally wrong but I thought a lot of those were meso scale models that don’t go out that far. At that range is it still incorporating that many models?

Gfs had 38” over me. Let’s say that includes the ggem euro and ukmet. The average of 38,0,0,0 is 9.5 which is what it shows.

Also Im comparing to 6z and others are 0z.

I don’t look at clown snow maps

Remember we want more of that energy in western Canada to slide east.

But the eps is an improvement over the last run.

They have higher expectations and it hasn’t snowed much at all yet in many places.

The GFS is weaker with the vortex in western Canada. That allows it to split and some of it to slide east. All other guidance is much stronger and that allows it to resist the flow, cut off, and just spin there.

It actually diverges by hr 54, believe it or not. The key seems to be the strength of the first SW that amplified around the TPV in western Canada. Both camps do a fujiwara dance between several features rotating around that TPV. But on the Icon/CMC/Euro/Ukmet the initial amplification around 54 hours is much stronger and the whole thing remains consolidated and just kinda spins in place. That means when the next piece of energy comes in (what becomes the storm) everything is anchored in western Canada and it dives in way too far west. The GFS and some previous runs of the euro and Cmc were weaker with the initial amplification in western Canada. That seems to allow the TPV to be impacted by the flow under the stronger vortex to the north and slide east, not remain anchored. It seems it simply comes down to how strongly the vortex that drops into south western Canada in about 48 hours is. Too strong and it resists the flow, gets stuck and the next lobe dives into the west. Weaker and it slides east and sets up a possible eastern storm.