psuhoffman

I love how some people post snow maps that arbitrarily end right before long range guidance shows snow as if we won’t realize it.

Agree is gonna be close and historically this setup fails more often. The key for us is we need that h5 low to dig slightly further west. I do think that systems gonna go ape once it phases but right now the majority of guidance tracks the h5 in too far northeast to phase in time for us. The extreme blocking and shorter wavelengths right now give this a better shot than normal when I would pretty much laugh this off as a lost cause. The reason I’ve always liked wave 3 most is based on the pattern progression that wave is coming along as the northern stream is relaxing in the east. Also that wave is ejecting from the pac further south. This means it’s a better chance to be a SS dominant wave which is a much better setup for us. But if the NS relaxes too much or it doesn’t amplify enough it won’t work. A weak wave March 20th is useless. But it’s still a better bet than needing these miller b phase jobs.

Yes

I’ve felt for a while based on the pattern and the time/space between features that we likely had 3 wave chances, each progressively more likely to produce here. Wave 1 as expected is pretty much lost now. But I still think we have a legit shot at waves 2-3. I’m ok with the gefs being a bit under amplified at this range for now. But I still think wave 3 might be the best shot to amplify far enough south.

The guidance are just tools. Some know how to use tools. Some are tools.

There were several times where one or two model runs showed a snowstorm day 8-10. But if you just count the Gfs/euro/ggem there are 8 op runs a day. If 1-2 show a snowstorm that actually means most guidance didn’t and taken as a whole was saying it wouldn’t snow. Never not once was the majority of guidance over a 24-48 hour period showing a snowstorm.

Because our snow is bounded by 0 and we’re pretty close to the southern edge of where it snows in a grand sense even in a good winter. There are plenty of places further north where guidance underestimates snow at times on the whole. But some is perception bias. We remember the runs that snow and forget the many many many that don’t. Take right now…the vast majority is showing no snow. But the minority that shows snow is giving the perception “guidance is predicting snow” but at no time has our probability of snow across guidance reached 50% all winter. When taken in totality guidance hasn’t once predicted snow here all winter.

I like the alien models better anyways

Most definitely. A point of reference I’ve noticed…keep the h5 south of Chicago and we have a shot. It will turn southeast because of the block but it can’t get too far north before that happens. Or else we need it to be so suppressive it would kill it. There is no possible win that way. Keep the h5 track south of Chicago and we have a path. NAM is south.

How did I miss that...it gives me like 2 feet. Oh cause its the JMA I will say this its been rock steady with that solution...if it wins this beats 2006 as its best coup ever.

Welcome to the dark side

But what if it’s the best inch ever…

UK was close to huge…big hit northern parts of our region.

Dayum another wave day 10 but suppressed by the bomb still sitting over New England from wave 2 which ends up dropping 40” up there lol. And another wave lined up behind that one. Crazy crazy run.

Total from both

Storm 1 Storm 2 you will all be relieved to know it gets its act together in time to crush Boston!

So euro split the energy and managed to almost snow twice. But both were soooo close to a bigger result. A tip of the scales towards either could go it! Or if that second wave is more in sync it could have pulled it off. It was super close.

It’s the same wave it’s just coming across in two pieces unlike prior runs and most guidance that has it consolidated. If that wave were to have been consolidated thus run it might have been BIG

My high res is too. Pivotal has the low res out to 120 and 144. Euro might be in that magic spot where we can get some snow from both waves. At 144 wave 1 is exiting and looks like enough space for wave 2

It’s not a huge deal. Storm is starting to amplify but probably not in time to get us with the secondary. But we got a nice little thump snow DC north from the inverted trough passage.

H5 tracks to Chicago then SE through OH and right over DC. I’d love to get that another 100 miles south but this is much better. Again the key is keeping that h5 south initially.

Surface temps aren’t out yet. I’m sure they are a problem. But this is a huge improvement in every way!

Euro way better at h5 compared to 0z.

It’s all improved so far. Meant to say “bit more confluence” not “but”