psuhoffman

yea, I love his enthusiasm...but I think he over estimates our probabilities from NS dominant systems. There is a pretty extreme cutoff between Philly and NY where those suddenly become a LOT more favorable. We get a much lower % of our snowfall south of Philly from NS waves than they do. We are really close to each other geographically so I can forgive him for that...but we need a LOT more luck for that setup to work out than NYC does. A SS dominant wave coming at us from the west of southwest with some confluence ahead of it...that is really our only high probability snowfall scenario and its why DC gets so much less snow than NY. They have a lot more ways to win than we do.

In terms of snow probabilities we just had by far our best run of the season at 12z. I will post in a few minutes when the last few days of the EPS updates...but for the first time all year the guidance is saying it SHOULD snow at least some in the next 15 days.

I think that run was going to obliterate us had it continued another 24 hours. Oh well...doesn't matter its going to shift around a lot in 10 days...but I still love that threat. I've loved that time period based on a basic pattern evolution educated guess when it was still a month away...and now that its 10 days and coming into focus a bit...I still like it.

There is more cold than we have had with all the other garbage threats where we were praying for an absolutely perfect track...then we got one and it still was just rain lol. We will need a dynamic system and a good track obviously given the time of year. But...this euro run was showing that. Look at the flow at day 10. That upper low is going to track right across to our south. That was the solution we need.

We are tracking 2 legit threats that are about 6 and 10 days away and you post a 5 day snowfall map. Thanks.

cold doesn't exist anymore

Storm 1 storm 2 total

If you think this is a bad run…probably should stop tracking. This would be a win. The snowfall distribution is pretty aligned with % of climo also. When I say I’m optimistic I meant that we see some snow. We’re not going to make up for the whole season in the 3rd week of March lol.

Baltimore hasn’t had more than 5” in 7 years.

I could see there being multiple threats but it depends how long the flow remains suppressive enough and how many waves come within that window. I expect at least one wave after the miller b NS system next week. Could be more though. Gfs shows multiple threats in the period.

I’ve not given up on wave 2 but by far our best opportunity will be in the 7 days or so after that wave exits as the flow starts to relax with multiple waves coming off the pac.

Gfs flush hit day 9

I originally identified the 15-17th. The pattern is still progressing the way I expected just a couple days slower. It’s usually as the Atlantic is relaxing after a major amplification that we have our best opportunities from a SS wave taking advantage of the relaxing flow but with a still suppressed thermal boundary.

I love how some people post snow maps that arbitrarily end right before long range guidance shows snow as if we won’t realize it.

Agree is gonna be close and historically this setup fails more often. The key for us is we need that h5 low to dig slightly further west. I do think that systems gonna go ape once it phases but right now the majority of guidance tracks the h5 in too far northeast to phase in time for us. The extreme blocking and shorter wavelengths right now give this a better shot than normal when I would pretty much laugh this off as a lost cause. The reason I’ve always liked wave 3 most is based on the pattern progression that wave is coming along as the northern stream is relaxing in the east. Also that wave is ejecting from the pac further south. This means it’s a better chance to be a SS dominant wave which is a much better setup for us. But if the NS relaxes too much or it doesn’t amplify enough it won’t work. A weak wave March 20th is useless. But it’s still a better bet than needing these miller b phase jobs.

Yes

I’ve felt for a while based on the pattern and the time/space between features that we likely had 3 wave chances, each progressively more likely to produce here. Wave 1 as expected is pretty much lost now. But I still think we have a legit shot at waves 2-3. I’m ok with the gefs being a bit under amplified at this range for now. But I still think wave 3 might be the best shot to amplify far enough south.

The guidance are just tools. Some know how to use tools. Some are tools.

There were several times where one or two model runs showed a snowstorm day 8-10. But if you just count the Gfs/euro/ggem there are 8 op runs a day. If 1-2 show a snowstorm that actually means most guidance didn’t and taken as a whole was saying it wouldn’t snow. Never not once was the majority of guidance over a 24-48 hour period showing a snowstorm.

Because our snow is bounded by 0 and we’re pretty close to the southern edge of where it snows in a grand sense even in a good winter. There are plenty of places further north where guidance underestimates snow at times on the whole. But some is perception bias. We remember the runs that snow and forget the many many many that don’t. Take right now…the vast majority is showing no snow. But the minority that shows snow is giving the perception “guidance is predicting snow” but at no time has our probability of snow across guidance reached 50% all winter. When taken in totality guidance hasn’t once predicted snow here all winter.

I like the alien models better anyways

Most definitely. A point of reference I’ve noticed…keep the h5 south of Chicago and we have a shot. It will turn southeast because of the block but it can’t get too far north before that happens. Or else we need it to be so suppressive it would kill it. There is no possible win that way. Keep the h5 track south of Chicago and we have a path. NAM is south.

How did I miss that...it gives me like 2 feet. Oh cause its the JMA I will say this its been rock steady with that solution...if it wins this beats 2006 as its best coup ever.

Welcome to the dark side