psuhoffman

In late November we were excited by a projected blocking regime and what that portends for a Nino winter. And the block did happen. No one was discussing a snow threat for us from that. Guidance showed a warm pattern. The guidance I was referencing was NCEP analogs. It wasn’t a forecast, it wasn’t the predicting 1996 and 2002, what that product was showing is that in the past similar patterns to this have produced varying results. Some good some not. Subtle differences could be the difference. We all are familiar with your feelings regarding NWP. That’s fine. You’re entitled to your opinion. But these weren't good examples to plant your flag. It’s not the 1990s. Guidance has become incredibly good at identifying the long wave pattern day 5-10. I can’t remember the last snowy period that guidance didn’t indicate was coming way before day 5. Frankly usually we see the signs before day 10. A discreet event might not show until inside day 5. But lately the vast majority of even discreet threats show before day 5. Even that marginal funky anafront wave showed up on guidance from 5 days out! A pattern change doesn’t mean we instantly snow. You seem overly focused on snow otg but in the long range we’re often discussing a process. There was no cold anywhere in North America. We can’t go from that snow by snapping a finger. It’s taking some time after the long wave pattern flips to establish enough cold in our area to get snow. Even then we will need luck. It is a pretty good pattern to get a snowstorm in the eastern US. But it could go just north of us. Just south. Cut island a bit. Out to sea. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee snow. We also need luck.

All I want for Christmas is fringed

Pattern analogs are useless right now. They’re spitting out some incredibly snowy periods (1996,2010) and some years that had almost no snow (2002, 1981). Subtle differences can tilt this either way.

Guess I missed all the fun. Merry Christmas everyone.

Because there isn’t an eminent threat before that to discuss. If we had a storm 3 days away no one would be looking at day 15

But the pna

But the pna

I know it can still snow if everything goes right. The issue is most of our snow comes from marginal flawed setups. And lately most marginal situations seem to be tipping the same way and it’s not the way we want.

We were discussing that model run though. My point was on that simulation we got everything to go right wrt the track of that clipper and it just didn’t matter because the boundary temps were too warm anyways.

I agree with the CC point. Wrt this winter I want to get more snow from this next window also but I wouldn’t rule out still going epic even if it doesn’t start until late January. Week SPV, Nino, -qbo the ingredients are there to go on an absolute tear if we can just time things up. We can hit climo in one storm in a Nino. Then all we need are a couple other hits and we get into memorable season territory. 1958, 1966, 1987, 2010 all had epic runs post Jan 20. So long as we see the seeds being laid, nao going negative mainly…I think we are still ok One reason is that NWP is better at picking out the major long wave flow at range than discreet surface features. Another is that we can look at an ensemble mean to get an even better idea of the long wave pattern but you can’t do that as effectively with surface features. Plus if you are skilled you’re often better off figuring out what should happen given the long wave pattern at range than relying on the surface details of nwp.

Two things can be true. I’m still very bullish on snow this season. But I am also still seeing the same signs of climo degradation. The latter doesn’t mean I’m saying it won’t snow. Maybe we get 40” instead of 50” though. And because I love snow so much it frustrates me when I see even a coating being “stolen” compared to the climo baseline I grew up associating as “normal”. Take this example. I’ve been visiting a close friend in Vermont. We were discussing the similarity in the recent pattern to 1998 except adjusted for 25 years of warming. It made no difference for DC. They were rain in 1998 and rain now. But Vermont was crushed with snow in all those storms that season. But last week that perfect track storm was rain all the way into Canada. And again in a couple days the next coastal will be rain up here. And before someone says but pac puke, that didn’t used to matter at 2000 feet in Vermont! If you had a 988 low off the benchmark it didn’t matter what the airmass was it was gonna snow here. Does that mean they aren’t going to get a ton of snow this winter. Of course not. It will still snow plenty. But that doesn’t change the clear indisputable warning signs flashing that it’s getting harder to snow. Both points can exist simultaneously. And I choose to acknowledge them both.

You’re right everything’s fine I’m just imagining our snow drought.

The crappy pac is a temporary response to the jet retraction and mjo traversing the MC. It won’t last long as it’s in conflict with the enso. Note even with temporary Nina mjo forcing the central pac ridge is muted compared to recent years. This won’t be a case of endless -pna. By the time that gets here we will see the other side.

I was gonna fix this but thought no it’s right

I’ll be honest I’m trying to be optimistic and I do very much think despite what I’m about to say it will snow a lot this year given the pattern. But my god I keep seeing things that are hard to swallow. Like a sub 540 rain clipper. Or layer in the rum when there is a direct flow from the North Pole over us and it never gets that cold and then as soon as the next wave approaches the cold gets routed instantly and a ridge pops to kingdom come in 24 hours.

We get a direct hit from a clipper with sub 540 thickness and it’s just rain. I don’t know what to say.

I don’t know objectively if it’s much more accurate overall but they did correct its crazy cold bias that plagues earlier versions of the FV2 core gfs.

Guidance did nail this coming pattern with exceptional accuracy and people who identified that wave as a threat were overly optimistic. That’s all.

I mean this with no snark, just trying to help. But that map there isn’t indicative of a good snow setup for us. Its subtle but the +NAO and ridging in the western Atlantic near 50/50 makes a big difference. If there was a trough there then that’s a great look. But ignore the colors and look at the flow. It’s straight out of the south. Blue over us doesn’t = good snow pattern. Think basic wave physics. Any wave approaching from the west will have a southerly flow ahead of it. If we’re going to have an amplified trough like that we need a mechanism to suppress the southerly flow. Blocking!!! It’s not there so any approaching wave in that look it very likely to cut and drive the thermal boundary way northwest of us. Add in a lack of any antecedent cold and that was never a good look. I say this with no ill intent just trying to help for future reference, but looking at that and thinking it’s good is user error. There are ways to snow without blocking but we would need a more progressive less amplified long wave configuration than that (the broad bowl @Bob Chilland @CAPE are always referencing or a trough axis further east and get lucky with a perfect timed late phase and tuck… only way that look there works is either an arctic antecedent airmass then maybe a front end thump or a lucky secondary development but both of those are long shot fluke type things. That look above is however a good loading pattern to get to a better pattern a few days later that amplified trough will move northeast and set up the suppression we need for the next wave or two to have a shot. With luck the wave break can even improve the NAO. So people were right to look at that as positive in the longer term but wrong to think that wave was ever a real threat.

You know I’m trolling right lol. But I’m doing it where it belongs…

So you’re disappointed that a day 15 threat isn’t inside 4 days 48 hours later? I feel sorry for your math teachers.

Why do you always post the period BEFORE the one we’re interested in!!!

Your troll game isn’t as subtle as you think

what’s the point