psuhoffman

I didn’t even look at the run. It was a joke. But….and I promise this is the last time (at least in this thread) that I’ll say this…but several years ago when I did that case study of every Baltimore 4”+ snowstorm I was shocked how many actually featured a totally shit god awful pattern with reds and blues in all the wrong places with a pile airmass where it was 50 degrees the day before and the only thing that went right was somehow by some means the storm took a perfect track and so we got a 6” wet snow paste bomb storm. Obviously that wasn’t the majority of our storms and it’s not how we want to roll. I’m not saying we root for crap patterns. But it was enough of the storms that if we can’t ever get that kind of thing anymore, where it snows just because of a good track in an awful pattern, then it’s going to hurt us A Fooking Lot! Way more than some here want to admit! Just off the top of my head without even looking at the files… Our only real snow in 1997 came in a god awful pattern because we got lucky with a wave track. Look at this BS…we got a 4-8” snow from THIS BS on a stick pattern. 1976 would have been a completely snowless winter if not for a 10” wet snow storm that came in a pattern that had no business snowing in. There was another year in the early 90s where our only 2 significant snows both came in a pattern that had no business snowing. Yea it was a crap year but most had like 10-15” not NOTHING! You know what they all have in common. They’re a long ass time ago. It’s not happening anymore. There were a lot in the 50s, 60s, 70s, then they started to decline and they’ve gone extinct the last 10 years. Lately our bad patterns are so warm that it doesn’t matter what the track is. And every time I hear the same thing…but this wasn’t perfect. That wasn’t perfect. The high was too this or that. There was too much ridging in front. Yea no shit I know it can still snow if every fucking thing goes perfect. Yea if we get a 980 low off VA beach with a 1040 high over Montreal and a -3stdv block with a -epo arctic air mass yes we will get a shit ton of snow. But that’s going to happen once a decade. What about the rest of the god damn time? We had so many bad but not awful winters in the past where if you take away a couple snows that came from pure luck in a shit pattern they are suddenly a 3” snow year instead of 12” or absolutely nothing instead of 10” like 1976! lastly I know it’s impossible to prove what storms would or wouldn’t have been a snow 30 years ago. Not without tools I don’t have access too. There were perfect track rains in the 50s too when it was just too warm for any track to overcome. But there were some snows too! So while I can’t prove anything because of any one storm…when it happens over and over and over and none of them seem to be snow outside the higher elevations anymore…the preponderance of evidence is damning.

another perfect track rainstorm is the perfect way to end this winter though

Thunder snow!!! I mean it’s more like thunder slushbombs with some rain but I think for about 1 min it was enough slush to make it official. psuhoffman storm verified! lol

Ya not sure March 58 would even be a snowstorm anymore. Not kidding.

I got the thunder and the precip. Just missed the temps. Meatloaf said…

See I told ya my storm would be epic. Thunder. Lightning. Heavy precip. Massive communications disruptions.

But @Terpeast said that would probably just be a perfect track rainstorm now

@CAPEThe GEFS and op Euro are really going stronger with the Scandi ridging by day 10 or so... Look I am still in the skeptical camp that any of this leads to snow for us...but its worth noting that's all. If the heat flux from the Canada ridge and the Scandinavian ridges combine to cause a -NAO, that is not an uncommon progression in a strong nino. It's coming a little late for us here though. Honestly, my WAG is that we do get blocking from this...but that it comes too late for snow...and just in time to give us a miserable March 20-April 15 or so....by late April it won't matter on a sunny day we will warm up regardless of blocking. Who cares what its doing on a rainy day, I'm not chillin outside in the rain whether its 65 or 45.

yes lets have this debate, this will go wonderful

I think this is topical, the only way you're seeing any positive signs of snow is if you are on some pretty good drugs right now. Plus...as some have said, it is time to explore other previously unexplored factors and possible causes. Have we considered drugs? Maybe the right drugs could open up a window to some kind of shared consciousness where by we can actually control the weather. If snow weenies unite we could fix this!

You might be seeing the giant tomato worms because of the wrong drugs

depends on the drugs

And what are we supposed to do with that? So like 5% of the time the day 12 of the op GFS is actually right. Without knowing when that 5% is how is that even remotely useful? Should I post all the times its ridiculously wrong at day 12? Seriously what exactly is the point of this post?

Is it a good sign when our February 2024 pattern discussion is mostly about tropical, winter 2026, maple sugaring and ski conditions in northern new england?

A freeze thaw cycle can be good so long as it’s sunny and gets into the 40s. I had a great day at Killington last March that started in the 20s but they had a high in the mid 40s. By 10am south facing slopes softened up nice and by noon all slopes were soft.

At this point you might want to root for warmer... spring skiing up there can be awesome. Soft snow, light jacket...what you don't want is a cold front after a warm up and you get a sheet of ice. I just hope they have enough base to make it to April. I got some good news from the MRI on my knee but even if rehab goes well I won't be able to get out there until April. In a typical year April is my favorite month up in Vermont and Maine actually...but it looks so freaking warm up there the next 2 weeks with possible big rain events...I wonder if they will have much base left by then. ETA: To explain, with the rain coming up there it would take a LOT of snow to actually cover the ice base that would develop if it gets cold again. They would need to make or get at least 18" to actually have good skiing conditions again. A lot of the snow initially would just blow or get skiid off the trails with hard ice under it. Following a thaw like that it typically takes 2 feet before conditions are good again. So your better bet is to root for it to stay warm and get nice soft spring slush.

Somewhere is an alternative universe where water freezes at 50 degrees

I can think of one example where a Canada ridge was undercut and lifted to link with a retrograding ridge from Scandi. You’re right Dec 2009 is the more common progression except in a strong Nino. Several other of our strong Nino blocks came about from a lifting Canada ridge linking with a retro scandi ridge. The bigger issue is I agree with you that the guidance is probably being fooled again. Through day 10-15 it’s relying on pattern progression but as it gets further out it’s increasingly saying “I see a -QBO, weak ass SPV, strong Nino, let’s go canonical pattern look for those drivers”. But as we’ve seen time and again other factors the guidance isn’t properly weighting is running interference. Odds are the same thing is happening again. The only reason I give it any chance is the current SPV collapse in progress. I think there was even a wind reversal already with some guidance suggesting a second in a few days! The timing of which would correlate with a block in mid March. But we’ve seen that fail too this winter so… Honesrly I’m humbled (and currently trashed) at this point. I really thought the Nina pac base state would mute the super Nino some and result in a canonical moderate Nino pattern. Instead what we actually got was the fucking worst traits of a Nina and Nino. At this point I’ve called uncle and have no expectations but march is crazy and the SPV just collapsed so im leaving a crack open for something to surprise me.

It better be epic

You’re right, recent history suggests we should be optimistic

The eps had like 3 runs over 5 days where it did advertise a Scandi ridge progression. Gfsx never really did. This time both have it. It’s not the strongest signal ever but I see it. I don’t see as much wave breaking. Last time guidance developed multiple strong Atlantic lows before the block. This time the -nao comes before the Atlantic lows. Im extremely skeptical it comes about. Guidance also had the December and January blocking coming about that way and both those times it ended up being more wave breaking and unstable and quickly broke down. That could happen again. Or we could get the block and it’s too warm like last March. Im with you wet skepticism we get a favorable pattern. But I do think the current looks on the eps and gfsx have a slightly better progression than last time. ETA: the eps has already been kicking the can a few days lately. Its very likely its doing the same “-QBO Nino lets snow the typical pattern” crap it did all 2019 and this year.

La Niña

FWIW the blocking on long range guidance evolve form heat fluxes initially assoxiated with Scandinavian ridging. This is a more common and stable way to get blocking than the wave breaking attempt earlier this month. I am well aware of the climo limitations we will face in late March.

This is where I am, but apparently some are now saying the PDO is permanent due to lower SO2 lol