Read OKX AFD, lots of mixing & lower DPs during height of temps during the day. LGA shows this today, went to upper 50s. EWR dropped to 61 I see quickly.
BUFKIT soundings prog 850 mb temperatures around 20C on Monday, and
with a well-mixed BL, surface temperatures should climb into the
high 80s and low 90s in the afternoon for most, or about 10 degrees
above normal. Surface high pressure centered over the Southeast
provides a light westerly flow, except where coastal sea breezes
develop and back winds southerly in the afternoon. An upper
disturbance rounding the ridge will allow for some mid and high level
clouds during the day, but precipitation is not expected. It remains
mild overnight into Tuesday, with the metro only falling into the
The ridge slides overhead Tuesday, with similar, if not a smidge
warmer, conditions expected. Continued deep mixing likely allows dew
pts to fall below NBM both days as often the case. Blended in the
10th percentile as a compromise, yielding low to mid 60s during the
day. Its possible the low-levels dry out a bit more than forecast,
and this is the challenge as it comes to heat headlines.