uofmiami

14 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

100% agree with you-No one needs this.  That being said, how many times has the "bullseye" been correct on these types of storms?

Agreed.  It could 50-100 miles east or west, just have to watch radar as the storm unfolds.  Hopefully it happens out to sea, so no one has to deal with the flooding that would accompany those totals.

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No thank you. I’ll pray that’s wrong, otherwise it’s ark building time. 

24 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Gloria hit eastern Nassau and east the hardest. Numerous trees down and many lost power for days. The hype with Gloria was very high, so areas from the city on West that didn't get the strongest winds might have felt it was not so bad. If it hit at high tide, coastal flooding would have been much worse. I believe the center past close to the Nassau Sulfolk border.

 

My grandma’s house in Islip had tons of tree damage and huge limbs down all over the place.  The wind snapped the trees tops down on her side yard and knocked off a street light on power pole across street. Lots of power lines down. Compared to Great Neck where we had some gusts and a branch or two down.

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc pretty wet for Friday 

Another 2-4" of rain, no thank you!!

Assuming the rain is done, 2.39" in Muttontown & 2.50" in Syosset.

2.05” at Syosset & 1.93” at Muttontown so far. 

4 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Some decent wind gusts rolling through Astoria right now.

Had the same on the island and temp dropped to 56 at both my stations. 

1.70” and counting in Syosset. 

1” of rain so far in Syosset. 

OKX still going for 1"+ for coast:

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Dipped to 49 here this morning. UHI in full affect as Central Park currently 60. Good radiational cooling night.

49 in Muttontown & 50 in Syosset.

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the correction below is definitely what you want to see from a 3 run trend. But I would really like to know why the initial 102 hr forecast was so suppressed. There are people programming that model with some very advanced physics and math degrees. So it would be nice for one of them to join the forum and tell us what the  challenges are with East Coast storm tracks. Perhaps interactions between the polar Jet and Gulf Stream just are too hard for the state of the art technology to resolve. Maybe we can get luckier when the Euro upgrades to 4-5 km resolution and improves their convective schemes. And I hope AI can make some real advances with correcting model biases.

 

Wonder if the data sparse upstream of the pacific plays a role.  Feb 21 air travel wasn’t back to normal levels, so I’m sure missing that data could have played a role to some extent. 

57 currently 

35 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Flood Watch issued here from late tonight thru tomorrow afternoon.

OKX area as well now.

Flood Watch for OKX area until this evening.

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If one of these random runs west of the ensemble means near Cape Cod actually happen, then it will be a big win for the newer AI models. This will be the big test case coming up. Imagine if they end up being right. Maybe we could actually nail a day 7-10 snowstorm forecast for once.

 

 

 

We can only hope.

Just now, Rtd208 said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0674.html

94 at both my stations so far. Hottest of the year, impressive. 

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Do they sell thermometers that can be calibrated?  I know where I work we compare a thermometer for regulatory purposes, we compare the readings to a NIST thermometer and deduct or add the difference.

Davis sells NIST equipment.  Not sure if Ambient does.

https://www.davisinstruments.com/pages/nist-traceable-sensors

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Go measure the highs out on the Great Lawn and you would see this cool bias of the trees disappear. 

It'd be great if we had real time to compare but it'll never happen unfortunately.  Have to go on former location data to current location data.

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The 101 is safe haha… 

 

EWR will break 2015 by noon 

JFK should also be safe, winds going S today. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

88 here. 90 at EWR. 97-99 looks likely today 

NBS & MAV have 96 for EWR.  Probably end up hitting 97 at EWR for the high.

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

What exactly is the AI Euro model?

It’s AI algorithm incorporated into the model.  This was release about 2 months ago, as I recall. 
 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/catalogue/packages/ai_models/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06185-3

9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

One thing is certain with lee this far out. This is a beach rearrange situation. Major major, beach erosion event is set in stone 

How did the beaches make out with Franklin?  I had seen pictures/video of water into Jones Beach theater during a concert.