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Lucy Pull

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Everything posted by Lucy Pull

  1. Lucy Pull
    NAM is good at sniffing out those warm layers but it’s hard to take its thermals serious when it’s jumping so much. 6z north, 12z south, 18z north. Any bets on 0z?
  2. Lucy Pull
    ICON does not look like it’s gonna bring good vibes. Consolidated vort and heights higher at 42 compared to 12z.
  3. Lucy Pull
    Like the Nam for picking up on warm layers but would like to see it consistent with vort handling two runs in a row before basing anything off its thermals…
  4. Lucy Pull
    Nam 12z and 18z weren’t much different until about hour 30. Then it just went ballistic with the southern vort. Need it more shredded like 12z. Could be the nam just being amp happy but driving that strong of a primary west isn’t gonna do it.
  5. Lucy Pull
    Really like this map unless we see more tics. Think southern zones could do a hair better depending on rates.
  6. Lucy Pull
    Tend to agree, especially with NAM being so excited about the warm nose. I’ve only really seen these over-perform when rates stay high. I think if we keep rates up it could slow it down. If they slow up i think the opportunity is there for that warm tongue to shoot north.
  7. Lucy Pull
    18z GFS doesn’t look to be backing down from its colder solution….yet.
  8. Lucy Pull
    Could this be a case where you flip between snow and sleet depending on how heavy precipitation is? Or once you go to sleet that’s it?
  9. Lucy Pull
    Gets the coastal cranking a little sooner. 1.5” QPF near BOS and Cape.
  10. Lucy Pull
    Haven’t seen median higher than mean too often but I guess it’s not a huge difference. Is there a cluster of members south or way north driving mean lower?
  11. Lucy Pull
    Definitely looks to be amped, potentially more than 6z euro depending on stream interaction. Long range nam though but not far from euro structurally.
  12. Lucy Pull
    12z Nam looks to be coming in amped at end of range. Maybe even more than 6z euro.
  13. Lucy Pull
    Agree. Wouldn’t use Ukmet for anything thermal related.
  14. Lucy Pull
    FYI if anyone didn’t notice. It looks like the top subset of members is for GEFS. Bottom subset is EPS members.
  15. Lucy Pull
    Euro a decent hit for SNE but lost the full phase solution like the AI Euro.
  16. Lucy Pull
    Agree. Doesn’t effect the outcome much if any on this run but a full phase would realize the upper end potential.
  17. Lucy Pull
    It’s waffling quite a lot at H5 the past few runs. Results are similar to an extent but I definitely like 06z H5 for a bigger event.
  18. Lucy Pull
    Looks like they linger precip in the area a bit longer. Wonder if some individuals are similar to the CMC.
  19. Lucy Pull
    Makes a great recovery. Had me gunshy at 90 after seeing the GFS.
  20. Lucy Pull
    Looking like less interaction between streams on the CMC as well out to 90. Don’t think it’ll be as zonked.
  21. Lucy Pull
    Looks like it wants to bury the energy in the southwest again.
  22. Lucy Pull
    Might have pushed the initial overrunning south a smidge but brings the coastal further north from phasing. Throws heavy precip into New England actually.
  23. Lucy Pull
    Is there an 18z CMC operational and ensemble? I know 0z to 12z the CMC ensemble increased precipitation.
  24. Lucy Pull
    Next couple frames could’ve been interesting. Almost like this whole potential is changing structurally. Expecting some waffling the next couple days.
  25. Lucy Pull
    Yeah GFS OP looks it could be on the southern side of the ensemble envelope. GEFS brings some non-negligible precip into the area.
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