Lucy Pull
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Everything posted by Lucy Pull
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Woke up to a little over 3.5” just South of Blue Mountain Ski Resort. Assuming probably close to 4” when accounting for compaction.
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Last observation of the night for me. A hair less than 3” just south of Blue Mountain Ski resort. Noticeable uptick in intensity the past 5-10 minutes. Would assume 0.5”+ rates currently.
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0z HRRR hot off the presses. Model Ratio No longer brings the coastal banding into western Lehigh Valley. Crazy to see 2ft still showing up in Jersey in addition to what’s already fallen.
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Live within a mile of Blue Mountain Ski Resort on the southern side of the mountain.
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Wow I might be getting lucky here then. Been moderate snow since about 4:30 here. Just measured 2” on the cars here.
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Hard to tell if this is a true cutoff or just distance from radar. Kind of a dead spot radar wise.
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Pleasantly surprised to be seeing some of those heavier returns trying to reach into the Lehigh Valley. Hoping they don’t come up just short. Thinking maybe 1.5” here just south of Blue Mountain Ski Resort. Roads are covered. 29.5 degrees.
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Yeah I thought the same there. 12km same story but even worse. Comparing to previous run for that hour is just funny.
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HRRR and RAP are actually quite impressive QPF wise for PHI. 2” and 1.7” respectively with some to come on RAP yet.
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34.2 degrees just south of Blue Mountain Ski resort. Moderate snow, not sticking to any surfaces yet. Intensity and flake size picked up quite a bit in the last 10-15 minutes.
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I’d take this in a heartbeat
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Yeah I do not envy them. Newest RAP is still wanting to throw 1.5”+ QPF into PHI…
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NWS updated warning amounts. 7-14” Lehigh Valley kept blizzard warnings in bucks and PHI for 14-20”
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I’m definitely ready to hallucinate that band pivoting into northwestern Northampton county…feel that I’m just too far here.
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My current thoughts General 4-8 for Lehigh valley more as you approach Jersey. General 8-12” PHI area. I think there’s still potential to throw a band NW that runs the PA/NJ border. So eastern most areas could pop 12+ with a sharp drop off west of that.
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What am I supposed to make of that haha. Half of Jersey is 40”+. Can’t complain about that start to 0z.
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Still really likes the Poconos but much more reasonable IMO. Thanks for posting.
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Does this have a raw QPF output? I feel like ratios could be quite generous for this map.
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
Lucy Pull replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
Well 21z SREF’s don’t seem to be pulling a Lucy. -
I believe this has some recon data from the South as well? Or is that reserved for the true 0z models?
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I feel that we’ll see a consensus start to build at 00z. 18z NAM and 18z GFS had a pretty large discrepancy with heights out in front by hour 6 already.
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For reference…
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EPS ensembles keeping a slightly further west cluster compared to 12z based off MSLP. Looks to reduce far eastern outliers as well. Don’t have precip output
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This seemed like mostly noise to me. The precip field in general shifted northwest albeit slightly but the slug of moisture wasn’t as apparent towards PHI
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Wait to see what EPS does that’ll be the teller. Operational can be quite blotchy with precip and max/min areas will jump between runs. looked a bit better at h5 based on the above GIF.
