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Lucy Pull

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Everything posted by Lucy Pull

  1. Lucy Pull
    By hour 6 the difference in heights between the GFS and NAM is evident out in front. Heck they even look like they initialize substantially different.
  2. Lucy Pull
    Posting for posterity’s sake. 18z NAM 10:1- Kuchera-
  3. Lucy Pull
    Buzzsaw…. Banding just sits and rots.
  4. Lucy Pull
    15z SREF did not disappoint. 9z to 15z trend
  5. Lucy Pull
    Clustered west. Those easterly lows probably dragging mean down quite a bit.
  6. Lucy Pull
    6z euro operational looked to be on the eastern envelope of its ensemble. Do you have ensemble mean by chance?
  7. Lucy Pull
    Was it winter storm “Juno” that did this last second? NWS had widespread 24-36 forecasts in and around NYC 2 days before I believe. If I recall the EURO and its ensemble was amped and GFS was progressive and east.
  8. Lucy Pull
    Down to interpretation mostly. Always going to have a zonked run or two…ahem NAM that puts the back thought of 30” into your head. If you look at this from the perspective of 24 hours ago it’s a completely different outlook. In other news 6z Euro and EPS look better. Some EPS members that definitely get the job done for the sub forum. Minuscule differences at h5 causing quite erratic surface depictions.
  9. Lucy Pull
    Doesn’t look like the NAM cares about that increased confluence early. Looks like the other changes will make up for it….
  10. Lucy Pull
    Agree, geographic area and sporadic maximum snow areas across a large portion of the country. Wondering what NESIS will come in at.
  11. Lucy Pull
    In saying this though….it does increase the floor if the coastal were to head further east.
  12. Lucy Pull
    Less IVT. Unless this backs west like GFS there will most likely be a screw zone between coastal and IVT.
  13. Lucy Pull
    GEFS precip mean increased for 18z. Operational still on the northwestern edge of ensemble but actually a few members even more amped than operational this run.
  14. Lucy Pull
    GEFS a little more amplified. Operational was on the amped and western side of ensembles. A small cluster of members very close to operational.
  15. Lucy Pull
    Euro AI ensemble definitely more amplified 6z to 12z based off NYC forum. Pretty good westerly leaning cluster
  16. Lucy Pull
    Interested in what the Euro AI ensembles look like compared to 6z.
  17. Lucy Pull
    Don’t think you could draw it up much better.
  18. Lucy Pull
    When I think of blocking in March I think of 2013. Obviously results will vary based off PNA.
  19. Lucy Pull
    March 2012 for reference
  20. Lucy Pull
    You’ll be back sooner. It’s possible we don’t connect on any shortwaves but willing to bet “something” happens before then…even if it’s just modeled blues.
  21. Lucy Pull
    AI models much more enthusiastic about Feb.5 potential. Resembling a SWFE with potential transfer. Something to keep an eye on at least.
  22. Lucy Pull
    More confluence to the north this run. Saw this on the RGEM as well.
  23. Lucy Pull
    Seems like for every positive influence there’s an equal or worse negative influence.
  24. Lucy Pull
    Yeah I agree. FV3 could’ve been interesting if it ran out further. consolidates energy in the western lobe of the ULL and starts tilting the trough negative.
  25. Lucy Pull
    No it’s not. I think youd want that further west to pump heights higher into the backside of our storms trough. Seems like its starting to fold the ridge over in its current position. Or you speed that up substantially and phase it into the backside of the trough. Could get a tug west from that. not at a good spot as depicted.
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