wthrmn654

The more important part of the forecast is that model guidance has continued to show Erin growing in size, and the wind radii have been made larger in the new NHC forecast. This new forecast now brings tropical-storm-force winds very close to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast later this week. Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic.

There is not much change to the track forecast reasoning, with the hurricane still expected to recurve over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda over the next 3-4 days. The main highlight of the new forecast is that much of the track guidance, including the consensus aids, have shifted slightly west of the previous NHC prediction during the first 2-3 days. The new NHC forecast is very close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids during the first 48 hours, and then closer to the TVCA aid beyond 48 hours. It should be noted that there is still some space for additional adjustments to the track forecast, particularly beyond 48 hours with the HCCA aid lying along the northwestern edge of the guidance envelope.

00z, looks like nhc tracks to far east at first glance. More so when it is starting the north east turn

At 0000 UTC, 19 August 2025, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN (AL05) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 24°N and 71.4°W. The current intensity was 115 kt and the center was moving at 7 kt at a bearing of 320 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb.

Icon and euro AI for the win

Gfs another noticeable shift west and north.... lol this reminds me of winter storms the past few years non stop shifts...

Consensus model has shifted both north and west this time around! The amount of shifting past few days is remarkable! Euro cmc, and even some of the more reliable hurricane models had a decent shift west/ north at 12z

All models are now north west of 35°

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

Boy what a win for the icon of it's dammed consistency pans out Also the euro AI. Both have been stubbornly consistent.

Af 304 seems to be having some issues with finding a center? 3 passes in a row, 935,938, then 936.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day. Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 18Location: 23.1°N 70.8°WMoving: WNW at 10 mphMin pressure: 935 mbMax sustained: 140 mph

At 1200 UTC, 18 August 2025, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN (AL05) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 22.9°N and 70.5°W. The current intensity was 120 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 305 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 935 mb.

As it stands right now this thing should cross at the 70,35 if not just to the left of it , when it's going northeast ish with regards to the north east region

Tail doppler

Works way better on a computer then a phone ID guess lol horrible on a phone from what I can see just looking at it quickly versus your photo

The track has been shifting more west then what some may think.

Didn't realize the nhc was using Google products This track lies roughly in between the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

00z models run and again the nhc track is to far east jeez.

big eye now

Af307 stated and now stopped mission must of have breakdown